Predicting the fifth-year option decisions for every 2022 NFL first-round draft pick

Star young defenders could get massive deals: Aidan Hutchinson , Kyle Hamilton , Sauce Gardner and more defensive studs could join Derek Stingley Jr.

Plenty of tough calls: Kayvon Thibodeaux , Zion Johnson and Devonte Wyatt are among the difficult options for teams before May.

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Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes While the NFL landscape has tilted toward the 2025 NFL Draft roughly a month away the upcoming months are prime territory to watch what happens with former top picks themselves.

Players selected in 2022's first round will need determinations made on their fifth-round options before May 1.

Weve already seen some of these picks, like dynamic Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.

, receive market-resetting extensions that override the uncertainty of the fifth-year option.

Many more players on this list will likely follow suit, but organizations could still pick up their options to give them insurance.

Lets break down the outlook on all 32 players taken three seasons ago.

When Walker ascended through boards all the way to first overall, doubts loomed about how effective he would become in the NFL.

While the former Georgia Bulldog hasnt exactly become one of the leagues best defensive linemen, hes steadily refined into a solid player, notching 43 or more pressures in all three seasons.

The Jaguars will probably pick up Walkers option, giving themselves another year to see if the 24-year-old is worth extending to a larger degree.

Countless NFL pundits and fans felt as though the Lions had selected the drafts top player at second overall, and three years later, theres a real case to be made that Hutchinson has been that.

Since 2022, his 92.1 PFF pass-rushing grade ranks sixth and his 19.9% pass-rush win rate slots fourth among qualified pass rushers.

Indeed, Hutchinson was on track to become the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year if not for a broken leg suffered in Week 6.

With players like Myles Garrett and Maxx Crosby helping reset edge defender contracts, the Lions would be smart to lock up the Michigan product soon.

Stingley received a three-year, $90 million extension Monday that made him the highest-paid defensive back in the league.

Among qualified cornerbacks over the past three years, his 84.3 PFF coverage grade ranks eighth and his 58.2 passer rating when targeted places second.

Gardner had to be ecstatic watching Derek Stingley Jr.

not only get paid but also get his money before him.

The fourth overall pick has indisputably become one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, leading qualified cornerbacks in PFF coverage grade (91.9) and forced incompletion rate (24.7%) over the past three years.

Expect Gardner to receive at least $30.5 million annually on a blockbuster new deal.

Thibodeaux may not be an elite edge defender, but hes still turned into a solid pass rusher.

Even in an injury-shortened 2024, Thibodeaux churned out 38 pressures on a 14.2% pass-rush win rate, performing better than in each of his first two years.

Considering that Azeez Ojulari signed with the Eagles, reports of Thibodeauxs option being picked up make additional sense, although this wont be an easy call.

Ekwonu has steadily improved every season of his pro career, culminating in another strong year in 2024.

His 80.5 PFF run-blocking grade ranked 11th among qualified tackles, and his 66.2 PFF pass-blocking grade was an improvement from 2023.

Even though Ekwonu has been below average as a pass blocker, his run-blocking prowess and continuity along a solid Panthers offensive line make him a good candidate for another year under contract.

The Giants figured they had secured two trench cornerstones when they selected Kayvon Thibodeaux and Neal within three picks, but that hasnt materialized.

Neal has failed to secure even a 50.0 PFF pass-blocking grade in any year or play 470 snaps in 2023 or 2024.

Neals spot along New Yorks offensive line was further obscured after the team added tackles James Hudson III and Stone Forsythe in free agency.

No matter Atlantas revolving door at quarterback over the past three seasons, London has established himself as a consistently good receiving threat.

He has generated at least a 78.9 PFF receiving grade and 1.87 yards per route run in every season since he broke into the league.

The Falcons would be wise to extend London in light of recent massive receiver deals for JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins .

Cross was the lone solid player along an ineffective Seattle offensive line last year.

The Mississippi State product broke out with an 82.5 PFF overall grade, becoming one of nine qualified tackles with a 77.0-plus grade in both pass blocking and run blocking.

It should be a simple decision to extend Cross with the option, if not pay him handsomely.

Much like Drake London, Wilson has flourished out wide despite enduring one of the leagues most dismal quarterback situations.

His 84.5 PFF receiving grade since 2022 ranks 22nd among qualified wideouts, and his 163 first downs accrued are the 12th most.

Now that the Jets have very few options besides Wilson at wide receiver, the team should prioritize locking him down for the long haul.

Olave has been a dynamic receiver during each of his three NFL seasons with the Saints, securing an 82.9 PFF receiving grade or better since 2022.

He sits in the 93 rd percentile for yards per route run and the 84 th percentile for PFF receiving grade versus single coverage over that span.

The only hesitation in rewarding him with a big extension is his durability after a shortened 2024, but the Ohio State alumnus is certainly worthy based on the advanced metrics.

After an underwhelming first two seasons, Williams finally produced like a 12 th overall pick last year.

His 75.1 PFF receiving grade and 1.97 yards per route run were easily career bests, and his 8.3 yards after the catch per reception ranked second among qualifiers.

The Alabama product serves an integral role as the deep threat in Detroits offense next to slot man Amon-Ra St.

Brown .

W hile there have been issues with off-field incidents, the Lions will likely want to keep building around him.

Philadelphias deep defensive line was one of the biggest reasons the team hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in February, but Davis wasnt as much of a presence as expected when he was drafted this early.

The former Georgia standout hasnt even played 600 snaps in a season, working as more of a rotational pass rusher but still falling behind Jalen Carter , Milton Williams and Moro Ojomo .

Plus, Davis has been merely solid in getting after the quarterback, turning in a sub-8.0% pass-rush win rate in each of the past two years.

With the Eagles likely to draft an interior defender early in 2025, that could leave Davis heading into a contract year.

Lots around the league believed Baltimore landed a steal in Hamilton, and this marriage has been precisely that.

Since 2022, Hamilton has been one of the best and most versatile defenders: His 92.0 PFF overall grade ranks eighth among qualified defenders, while his 93.3 PFF coverage grade paces the league.

With how the safety market exploded during free agency , the Ravens should try to extend Hamilton before the position reaches $23 million per year.

Greens NFL career simply has not gone anywhere close to expected.

During the two seasons in which hes been healthy, Green has finished with a sub-40.0 PFF overall grade and was ranked as the second-worst qualified offensive lineman in the league in 2024.

The Eagles just acquired him via trade, and its overwhelmingly likely that general manager Howie Roseman will decline Greens option and give him a one-year flier opportunity to rebuild his stock.

General manager Howie Roseman really loves his reclamation projects.

After being added by Philadelphia before 2024, Dotson acted as the Eagles WR3 but posted only a 55.0 PFF receiving grade with 269 receiving yards.

The former Commander will have another chance to prove himself this season, but he has vastly underperformed as a pro so far.

Even after switching from right to left guard, Johnson has played at a mediocre level since joining the Chargers .

Hes never reached even a 64.5 PFF overall grade, and in his three years in the NFL, he sits in the 31st percentile in PFF pass-blocking grade.

General manager Joe Hortiz has done significant work to overhaul Los Angeles offensive line since arriving, from drafting Joe Alt to signing both Mekhi Becton and Andre James on the inside.

Johnsons spot as a starter may not even be guaranteed, considering Bradley Bozeman is still under contract.

The Titans likely wish they had hindsight when operating during the 2022 NFL Draft, because Burks has not come close to matching A.J.

Brown s production.

Burks turned in a solid 73.9 PFF receiving grade in 2022, but since then, his 62.2 PFF receiving grade ranks 95 th out of 109 qualified receivers.

Additionally, he has mustered only 255 total receiving yards since 2023.

He could very well be on the trade block yet again this offseason.

Penning was projected to be an offensive line pillar for the Saints, but his time in New Orleans might last just four years.

During his three campaigns thus far, Penning has failed to reach even a 61.0 PFF pass-blocking grade, and his career 54.6 PFF pass-blocking grade slots 61 st out of 64 qualified tackles.

Even staying on the field has proven troublesome, as Penning reached 1,000 snaps for the first time in 2024.

With new head coach Kellen Moore in place, Penning will presumably be heading into a contract year.

Pickett was the lone quarterback selected within the first 73 selections of this draft, and, like almost every other gunslinger, hasnt played at a replacement level.

Pickett showed flashes as a rookie with the Steelers , generating a 73.0 PFF passing grade in 2022, but injuries and subpar downfield passing nosedived his career in Pittsburgh .

Even during the limited action he received as Jalen Hurts backup, Pickett didnt perform aptly, recording three big-time throws to two turnover-worthy plays across 51 dropbacks.

Now with the Browns , Pickett figures to be the teams backup behind either a touted rookie or a veteran.

If we redrafted the 2022 first round, McDuffie would probably be a top-10, if not top-five, selection.

Last season, the Chiefs star ranked second among cornerbacks in PFF Wins Above Replacement while transitioning from the slot to the outside.

In his three years in the league, McDuffie has finished with a 75.1 PFF coverage grade or better every time, and his run defense (81.6 PFF grade) took another leap in 2024.

Kansas City should try to extend him before Sauce Gardner receives his payday.

Walker has been a relatively consistent presence in the middle of the field for the Packers , but his play has left a lot to be desired.

His highest PFF overall grade was a 58.5 mark in 2023, not having reached 65.0 or better in either coverage or run defense since his rookie year.

Since 2022, Walkers PFF run-defense grade is in the 9th percentile and his coverage grade sits in the 48th percentile.

He should retain a starting spot after Eric Wilson s departure , but his future in Green Bay is tentative.

The Bills hoped they had secured a lockdown cornerback for the long-term future in Elam, but his tenure in Buffalo was highly disappointing.

Playing only 1,139 snaps in three seasons, Elam never established himself as a regular starter.

Even when on the field, he posted only a 66.4 PFF coverage grade with a low 5% forced incompletion rate.

Now with the Cowboys, Elam figures to be depth behind Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland .

Dallas offensive line ranked only 22nd in PFF grade last year, but it wasnt Smiths fault.

The Tulsa alumnus has turned into a consistently solid guard, generating a 73.3 PFF overall grade or better in all of his pro seasons while permitting only nine total sacks.

Among qualified offensive linemen since 2022, Smiths 97.8 PFF pass-blocking efficiency is tied for 27th.

He would be an obvious extension candidate, but considering that Dallas has yet to pay Micah Parsons , that feels highly unlikely.

Since being selected 25th overall in 2022, Linderbaum has promptly asserted himself as one of the NFLs premier centers.

Over the past three years, his 85.3 PFF overall grade ranks fourth among qualifiers at the position and his 65.2 PFF pass-blocking grade places 10th.

Additionally, Linderbaum was the third-most valuable center by PFF WAR in 2024.

The Ravens will almost definitely pick up Linderbaums option, if not try to extend him, but Kyle Hamilton will take priority.

Johnson has been inconsistent throughout his short NFL career, which makes this a challenging decision.

But he thrived during a breakout 2023, racking up 56 pressures and 71.0-plus PFF grades in both pass rushing and run defense.

Even in a two-game 2024 season shortened by an Achilles rupture, Johnson had already amassed seven pressures.

The Jets having a new regime means that no assumption s should be made, but offering Johnson another year to prove his talent would be logical.

The hit rate on first-round linebackers is generally low, as evidenced by Quay Walker above, but Lloyd has turned out to be a good addition for the Jaguars.

Over the past two years, his 81.1 PFF overall grade is the 10th best among qualified linebackers and his 91.0 PFF run-defense grade ranks fourth.

He also placed himself among the positions best tacklers last year with a microscopic 4.5% missed tackle rate.

The only hiccup here could be a projected $14.7 million price tag, but given the contracts handed out to free-agent linebackers this offseason, the value feels relatively reasonable.

Green Bays defensive line has regressed over the past few seasons, and Wyatts lack of regular contributions has to be accounted for.

Although Wyatt led Packers starters with a 12.9% pass-rush win rate last year, his PFF run-defense grade finished below 53.0 in 2023 and 2024.

Plus, his snap count dwindled to 366 last year, trailing the younger Karl Brooks .

Despite rushing the passer efficiently, Wyatt hasnt proven to be worth a projected $13.9 million based on volume alone, and the Packers will probably try to reinforce their interior defensive line in the draft.

Over the past few drafts, Strange is still one of the picks that deviated most from consensus and expectation.

So far, the skepticism has proven worthwhile.

The Chattanooga product played only 117 snaps last season due to a knee injury, plus he saw just 564 snaps the season before.

Even when on the field, Strange hasnt posted above a 64.6 PFF overall grade.

New Englands offensive line rebuild is already underway with Morgan Moses , Garrett Bradbury and more via the draft, and it would be surprising if Strange fit into those plans.

When people wonder how the Chiefs have been so consistently good, look back at their two first-rounders in this class.

Karlaftis has become a solid complementary edge rusher over the past two years, securing 159 pressures, a 67.5 PFF pass-rushing grade and an 11.0% pass-rush win rate.

His production probably isnt at the level of a lucrative new deal, especially considering his run-defense struggles, but the Chiefs would have few reasons not to pick up his option.

Hill is another tough call as a player who has flashed talent but hasnt stayed on the field.

In his first year playing outside cornerback in 2024, Hill registered a solid 68.0 PFF coverage grade but tore his ACL in Week 5.

His previous play at safety didnt yield favorable results, ending in two seasons with sub-56.5 PFF overall grades.

Considering Hills health and the Bengals trying to reload with new defensive coordinator Al Golden, the 31st overall pick will likely be playing on an expiring deal.

The Eagles sure wanted to accumulate as many 2022 first-rounders as possible.

Staggeringly, Cine has played only 10 (yes, you read that right) defensive snaps in the NFL thus far, partially due to breaking his leg as a rookie but also bad play.

The Vikings cut the Georgia product after two underwhelming seasons, and he has since been with the Bills and Eagles, although he appeared on only 16 special teams snaps last year..

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