NCAA Tournament First Four and first round best bets: 5 bets to start March Madness action

The NCAA Tournament is one of the best sporting events of the year, and with so much action in 67 games over the next three weeks, we can look to find value across the board.

Now, that doesnt mean rushing into it and betting every game on the board.

We still need to find that value to make it worthwhile placing a wager.

So Ill be using my college basketball projection model to find value against the spread and on totals.

If youre interested in my bracket projections , I simulated the tournament and have found some value in the future market as well.

Advertisement As always, shop around for the best price, as this will add up in the long run.

Best bets on mens First Four and first round All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs, unless otherwise noted.

Im also sharing a worst price to bet, which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet.

All odds are from BetMGM .

My model has Saint Francis as a below-average-paced team and Alabama State as an average one.

I do think Alabama State has slowed things down a bit over their last 10 games or so, which helps this bet as well.

And to make things better for this under, both of these teams arent great on the offensive end, dont live on the offensive glass and dont live at the free throw line.

That means a lot of shots are going to have to fall for this game to get above this total.

Back-to-back unders to kick off March Madness? Yikes.

Well, lets hope there are lids on the baskets in Dayton tonight.

We will need San Diego States defense to show up here to slow down the Tar Heels offense, and if that happens, we might be in for an easy under.

North Carolina does play at an above-average pace, but San Diego State wants to play slow and with their defense.

The plus side for North Carolina is that theyre an excellent defensive-rebounding team, so San Diego State shouldnt see a ton of opportunities on the offensive glass.

This edge side is quite a bit larger than the other under bet as my model projects this game into the mid-130s.

Hey, look! An over.

This one will be interesting because Drake plays as slow as anyone in the country, and Im a bit worried that theyll be able to get extra possessions on the offensive glass and slow the game down even more.

But lets hope they get quick put-backs.

On the other end of the court, Drake doesnt defend the paint all that well, and Missouri is one of the best in the country at getting the ball to the rack.

Im hoping that Missouris offense is too much for Drakes defense and that factor speeds up the Drake offense a bit.

My projection is in the upper 130s here.

Its hard for me to see UNC Wilmington stopping Texas Techs offense very often in this game.

For starters, UNC Wilmington gives up a ton of 3s on defense, and Texas Tech loves to shoot the deep ball, and they shoot it well.

Both teams play slow, which is a concern, but I think there will be enough second chances on the offensive glass to increase offensive efficiency to offset the slow-paced nature of this game.

When taking an underdog in the NCAA Tournament, there is always a chance that the athleticism is just too much, and thats true in this matchup.

Add in the fact that Liberty hasnt really played anyone all season long, and I get even more nervous.

But ...

there is always a but.

Liberty is shooting almost 40 percent from the 3-point line this season and almost 58 percent inside the arc.

If that at all translates against Oregon, theyll very much be alive for an upset.

Oregon isnt exactly great at anything, but they dont have a glaring weakness either.

I do think the Ducks are a bit overrated heading into the tournament after getting hot to end the year.

However, I think there might be a bit of Fools Gold here, as Oregon was 10-3 in close games this season.

(Photo of Nate Bittle: Soobum Im / Getty Images).

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