Why the Blue Jackets' odds-defying season signals a bright future

Before the season started, the Columbus Blue Jackets looked very unlikely to make the playoffs this season.

Look at them now.

No one couldve imagined that the Blue Jackets would comfortably be in a playoff spot after the trade deadline.

After Sundays incredible win against the Rangers, the Blue Jackets now sit two points ahead of the Rangers with a game in hand.

Even after Tuesdays loss against the Devils, they still hold a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs thanks to a Rangers regulation loss.

Advertisement That is a massive climb from where I had them to start the season , which was, uhh, 0.3 percent.

Woof .

(Note to self: Use decimal points from now on .) That means out of the 50,000 simulations I ran, just 150 featured the Blue Jackets making the playoffs.

In what seemed like a competitive Eastern Conference with what seemed like one of the leagues weakest rosters, it felt almost impossible to envision the Blue Jackets being a playoff team.

I gave them next to no shot to jump all the teams above them with the roster they had, given what those players had shown to date and boy was I wrong.

Here they are, right in the thick of it with 18 games to go.

It is not just the best story in hockey this season but one of the greatest underdog sports stories in recent memory.

Its an incredible triumph over tragedy, one no one saw coming.

The Blue Jackets were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league and they might make the playoffs instead.

Amazing is an understatement.

If they make the playoffs, the Blue Jackets would be the least likely playoff team Ive ever modeled.

The previous record is held by the 2017-18 New Jersey Devils, who I had at 4 percent, one of two teams Ive had below 10 percent to start the season that has made the playoffs.

The other is last years Washington Capitals at 6 percent.

Since 2017-18, thats two of 37 teams, or 5.4 percent.

Roughly what youd expect given the odds.

Columbus, at 0.3 percent, is not at all what youd expect.

Its not what I expected, naturally, but its also not what anyone expected.

Everyone was wrong about Columbus going into this season.

Because I put an extremely low playoff probability on their chances, I was the most wrong, no question about that.

There was far too much certainty on that outcome and the Blue Jackets shocking surge has served as an important lesson in certainty at the extremes, one that will be fixed for next season.

Advertisement Whats funny is that when I ran a preseason challenge asking fans to bet against the model , Columbus at 69 points was somehow one of the teams that the majority of people believed was actually too high.

The Blue Jackets had the third most fake money bet against them with 67 percent of people taking the under and 17 percent taking the over.

And I doubt those betting the over expected a 90-point team.

That brings us to the betting market, which has a longer history of handicapping the field.

Using Sports Odds History , I went all the way back to 2010-11 to see how teams were rated going into the season using their point totals.

(Playoff odds only go back to 2014-15 and are a lot less consistent with their certainty levels at the extremes from season to season).

In that time, there have been 65 teams projected to finish the season with 80 points or fewer (or pace for 80 or less in shortened seasons).

Just six of those teams have made the playoffs and none have since 2017-18 where somehow three (!) such teams made it.

Only two were projected for fewer than 70 points: Ottawa Senators, 2011-12: 74.5 Calgary Flames, 2014-15: 72.5 Toronto Maple Leafs, 2016-17: 79.0 New Jersey Devils, 2017-18: 75.5 Colorado Avalanche, 2017-18: 69.5 Vegas Golden Knights, 2017-18: 68.5 Theres a reason teams below that threshold usually hold minuscule odds.

With hockey modeling improving significantly since that season, theres also a reason that no team in that range has made the playoffs over the past six seasons, going 0-for-35.

The Blue Jackets could have something to say about that, and what theyve done this season is even more impressive than those other six given where they started.

Before the season, the Blue Jackets were projected to finish with 65.5 points, tied with the 2022-23 Arizona Coyotes for the fourth lowest on record.

Its not just that the Blue Jackets were expected to be bad this season they were expected to be almost uniquely bad.

Out of 462 teams, they were rated better than only the 2015-16 Coyotes (64.5 points), the 2020-21 Red Wings (63.7 pro-rated points) and this years Sharks (63.5 points).

Thats it.

What the Blue Jackets have done this year is basically unheard of.

Their implied odds according to the betting market werent as low as mine, but still as low as youll see from oddsmakers at 6.4 percent (and they obviously have a financial incentive not to go too low).

Thats the fifth lowest since 2014-15 and the 20th instance below 10 percent.

Only the 2017-18 Golden Knights at 9.8 percent made the playoffs among that group.

Advertisement What youll also notice above: Of the 23 teams projected for fewer than 72 points, just two even eclipsed 80.

The Blue Jackets need just 10 points over their final 18 games to get there and are currently projected to hit 90.

Even if they fall short of the playoffs, this season will still have been a massive success.

Columbus is doing what almost no bottom-feeder has been able to do and its extremely notable that the two that did find similar levels of unexpected success Colorado and Vegas followed it up with a long era of contention afterward.

And one Stanley Cup apiece.

If theres one big takeaway from this season, it stems from the potential promise of that comparison.

Defying the odds to this degree could be a signal of whats to come in Columbus future.

From this vantage point, the future looks extremely bright.

It was impossible to know how the Blue Jackets would respond to the tragedy of Johnny Gaudreaus death, and this years rally toward the playoffs has been beyond commendable.

Coach Dean Evason deserves a whole lot of credit for turning the ship around, as do a number of players who have simultaneously broken out as difference-makers.

Zach Werenski, Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov, Kent Johnson ...

the list goes on of players who look a whole lot more valuable than they did back in September.

Even a player who struggled early, like Adam Fantilli, looks like a rockstar lately thanks to a promotion to the top line.

Almost everyone leveled up in a significant way, which bodes extremely well for the teams future.

For maybe the first time in franchise history, Columbus core looks extremely exciting.

Im not saying the Blue Jackets are guaranteed contenders, but weve seen a lot of bottom-feeder teams struggle to take the next step.

Seeing the Blue Jackets level up this much in one fell swoop feels significant.

Theres still a lot of work to do ahead of them just look at how much Colorado and Vegas had to change after their own shocking success story and its important for the team not to get too far ahead of themselves either.

Given there are some unsustainable elements to their success this season, some caution is warranted.

But with the pieces Columbus now has in place, the teams road to contention looks a lot clearer now than it did six months ago.

For this season though, its hard to understate how much I did not see many of these breakouts coming.

I would guess Im not alone.

Werenski is a top three defenseman in the world? Marchenko and Voronkov combining to create one of the best top lines in hockey? Sean Monahan with a career year before injury? All happening at the same time? All those things happening at once wouldve been met with plenty of raised eyebrows back in September.

Advertisement It happened, though, and its led to some sizeable model adjustments.

Theres still some caution being exhibited with some of the breakouts, but its led to a seismic shift across the board.

Werenski is now the third-highest rated defender.

Marchenko, Monahan and Voronkov are all legit top-line talents.

This team has shown real progress.

And while there may be some red flags in the underlying numbers, its become apparent that there was a lot more skill and talent on this roster than initially thought talent that Evason helped to flourish.

A good coach works wonders.

From top to bottom, the Blue Jackets look better than anyone couldve imagined.

Theyve already beat the odds and in doing so, helped show the utility of measuring those odds in the first place.

Its those odds that add context to how special this season has been.

It adds to the narrative and helps explain what an incredible achievement it would be for the Blue Jackets to reach the postseason this year.

It adds an awesome factor to making the playoffs because it shows exactly how far theyve come to get to that point.

By defying the odds so greatly, it also shows how special this team could be down the road.

Everyone loves an underdog story and the Blue Jackets were the ultimate one going into the year, a team no one believed in.

Making the playoffs would be a fairy tale ending, one that now has a very real chance of happening.

One that fans of a long-suffering franchise truly deserve.

Whether its 300-to-1, 100-to-1, 20-to-1 or anything in between the Blue Jackets werent supposed to make it this far.

The odds were significantly stacked against them.

Yet here they are, doing the almost unthinkable and making it feel like this fairy tale is just beginning.

Its impossible not to root for.

And learn from.

(Top photo: Ben Jackson / Getty Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.