NHL trade deadline: Analyzing the numbers behind the top forwards available

The NHL trade deadline is just over a week away and were diving deep into the numbers behind the names from Chris Johnstons latest trade board .

Which forwards can actually move the needle? Which forwards can capably fill depth roles? Which forwards should teams probably avoid? Thats the name of the game here.

Lets dive in.

Elite forwards Mikko Rantanen: Theres only one elite forward on the trade board, and in all honesty, its hard to imagine him getting moved .

Again.

Rantanen has been a Hurricane for all of eight games and has looked pretty damn good despite the lack of production.

Rantanen has a 68 percent xG rate with the Canes the goals will come.

Advertisement While its likely true that some of Rantanens production was a result of Colorados system and who he played with, hes still an uber-elite player in his own right and one of the best wingers in the world.

Rantanen is a rare breed: A hulking winger who can tilt the ice and put up 100 points.

In the unlikely event he does get traded again, he will be a massive needle-mover for his next team.

Top-six forwards Rickard Rakell: Assuming Rantanen doesnt go anywhere, Rakell could be the best winger available.

After some down years in Anaheim, the versatile winger has found new life with the Penguins, scoring at a 33-goal and 68-point pace.

His five-on-five numbers arent bad either with a relative xG impact of plus-0.27 per 60 a career high.

Thats been driven by some strong relative chance suppression which suggests Rakell carries some decent defensive utility.

His projected Defensive Rating of plus-2.8 is the best of any forward available.

Strong production, great two-way impacts, role flexibility Rakell looks like the perfect deadline package as someone who can seamlessly fit in any contending teams top six.

That doesnt mean Rakell doesnt come with some red flags, though, despite the model being completely enamored with his value.

The Sidney Crosby Effect is real and while we do our best to account for that, its hard to look at Rakells tracking data and not feel a little underwhelmed.

Hes not super involved in exiting or entering the zone, hes not much of a forechecker, and his scoring chance contributions look mostly average.

That could mean his value is mostly dictated by who he plays with and why he looks rejuvenated now after looking kind of washed with the Ducks.

Rakell doesnt look like a driver in his own right, but that doesnt mean he cant bring a lot of value as a complementary winger.

Hes a good player who can help bring out the best in great players, someone who is defensively responsible with a nose for the net.

Not a complete game-changer, but at the very least someone who can make a noticeable impact.

Brock Nelson: Theres a good chance whoever snags Nelson wins the deadline.

Hes that good.

Nelson flies a little under the radar on Long Island, but hes proven to be a consistently strong needle-mover.

He can put the puck in the net to a high degree and can outscore opponents like clockwork.

His projected Net Rating of plus-7.5 would make him one of the stronger 2Cs come playoff time a huge advantage for a contender.

Advertisement Nelson has been much quieter this season with just 17 goals and 37 points in 57 games, but that has more to do with the teams completely dysfunctional power play than it does him.

At five-on-five, Nelson has kept up with where hes been the past three seasons, scoring 0.94 goals per 60 and 2.24 points per 60 both top-line rates.

On a contending team hes the ideal second-line center, but league-wide hes arguably one of the 32 best around.

What jumps out with Nelson most is his total impact with the puck.

This year, he has one of the highest scoring chance contribution rates as an elite shooter and passer.

Hes heavily involved in retrieving pucks in his own zone and is elite at turning those into clean exits a trait often found in the leagues top defensive centers.

Nelson is a defensively responsible player who makes sure his team doesnt have to defend often and does well at turning pucks up ice, too.

Nelson can move the needle in a big way for a contender and though his production may not sizzle the same as in years past, hes still probably worth the high cost to acquire.

Brad Marchand: While he may not be the player he once was, Marchand is still a gamer.

Hes a guy you want on your side in battle and hes a guy you know will give it his all come playoff time.

But we do have to accept that first reality, that his impact has fallen off in recent seasons.

Marchands projected Net Rating right now is plus-7.4, down from plus-10.7 last year, plus-14.8 the year before and plus-20.6 the year before that.

Hes still very good, but hes been steadily declining for a few seasons.

This year, hes scoring at a 65-point pace while being outchanced and outscored at five-on-five for the first time in his career.

Hes not the defensive difference-maker he used to be, either.

Advertisement While Marchand isnt as involved with the puck this season, his efficiency in entering and exiting the zone remains high.

Couple that with his declining on-ice numbers and the fault likely lies in the context surrounding him.

Put him with a good center who can handle the puck burden effectively and Id bet he looks a bit closer to his vintage self.

It remains to be seen whether the Bruins will actually deal their captain.

If they do, and the fit makes sense, it wouldnt be a shock to see Marchands game revitalized.

Though his value is in decline at age 36, the right situation (and right center) could show that Marchand still has more to offer.

Even if that isnt the case, though, Marchands current state is still a damn good player.

Hes still a top-line talent.

Brock Boeser: Boeser is a quality scorer, theres no doubt about that.

Over the last two seasons, Boeser has scored at a 36-goal and 68-point pace, making him a legit top-six scorer.

Hes a valuable player who will make any team better.

The issue is that Boeser doesnt bring much else to the table aside from that, limiting his value.

Hes an extreme passenger in transition and on the forecheck, plus hes below average defensively.

Its what some would describe as empty-calorie production, where Boesers value is probably a fair bit lower than his goal totals would suggest.

Boeser is great scoring goals is important! hes just not as valuable as a different 30-goal winger who can offer more outside of putting the puck in the net.

Theres room for that archetype on a contender, especially one who needs some finishing oomph and is all set in the play-driving department.

But it does make finding a fit on a contending team harder.

While Boeser has experience in tougher minutes, that experience doesnt really point to a player who can win those matchups, especially without help.

Those caveats to Boesers game are probably why hes available in the first place.

His production may suggest an $8 million deal is fair, but the rest of his game drags his value down to the $6.5 million range.

That discrepancy could be the catalyst for a split.

Gustav Nyquist: Last season felt like a bit of a fluke for Nyquist.

He came out of nowhere to score 75 points while riding Filip Forsbergs coattails.

This year, away from Forsberg and the top power play, hes had a very difficult time coming anywhere close to that level of offense.

Even factoring for his lesser role and lack of power play time, the drop in Nyquists point rate has still been alarming.

Last year he was at 2.21 points per 60 at five-on-five.

This year thats 0.81.

Ouch.

Advertisement To be fair to Nyquist, he and his linemates have been a bit snakebitten.

He still generates a strong amount of offense, its just not going in the net.

Based on tracking data, hes no passenger, either, looking effective in all three zones.

Under the hood, Nyquist still looks useful.

The key here is to balance how hes looked in each of the last two seasons.

He may not have been that good in 2023-24, but hes also probably not this bad either.

Nyquists projected value still grades out as a serviceable top-six forward, one who can do a lot of little things well and is still a solid playmaker.

At the right price, he would make a sensible winger fit for some teams middle six even if he hasnt quite looked the part this season.

Kyle Palmieri: Early in the season, Palmieri was arguably the Islanders best forward.

In the first 22 games, he had 10 goals and 19 points while earning 56 percent of the expected goals.

His average Game Score was 1.09, but since that point, hes dropped to 0.45.

In the 35 games since, Palmieri has seven goals and 19 points with 44 percent of the expected goals a complete reversal.

Also noteworthy: He went from earning eight shots per 60 to just under five.

Thats a steep drop.

So which Palmieri are teams getting? Thats the big question here, one that will dictate his worth on the market.

Palmieri has potential to be one of the best wingers available and when hes on his game he can still be a difference-maker.

But the lack of consistency might sour some teams and lower the price tag, as the chance he no-shows is unfortunately real.

Take the middle ground and Palmieri is an effective top-six forward, but his extremes this season do merit some caution.

Dylan Cozens: Im hesitant to put Cozens in the top-six forwards category given what hes shown the last two seasons.

After scoring 31 goals and 68 points in 2022-23, Cozens just hasnt looked the part for back-to-back seasons, scoring at an 18-goal, 47-point pace since.

On top of not scoring much, hes also struggled defensively.

Cozens is currently a tweener: Hes not quite good enough offensively for the top six and not quite good enough defensively for a shutdown bottom-six role.

He is a man without a home, a frustrating thought for a player making $7.1 million for five more years after this one.

Even when accounting for cap growth and personal growth, the value of Cozens contract clocks in at $6.2 million.

At this moment, hes technically a negative-value asset.

And yet, its hard not to be tantalized by that 2022-23 season and the idea that the seventh pick from the 2019 draft has more to give.

After seeing other players thrive away from Buffalo, it wouldnt be a shock to see Cozens figure it out elsewhere.

Despite his flaws, Cozens still brings it in transition and is very good at getting pucks out of his zone and into his opponents zone with control.

Advertisement If Cozens can figure things out in-zone, he can be a fantastic player.

Perhaps a smart team can fix his issues there, making Cozens worth the gamble.

But its crucial to understand this isnt a Sam Reinhart situation and its not Buffalo stink clouding judgment.

Over the past two years, Cozens has been subpar in his own right, and that makes dealing for him risky.

Top-nine forwards Brayden Schenn: Credit to Schenn, hes been really good since Jim Montgomery took over behind the Blues bench.

Before that, Schenn had 11 points in 23 games and a 44 percent xG rate.

Since? Hes up to 26 points in 37 games and 51 percent of the expected goals.

Hes been great, proving he still has game in a top-six role.

The issue is hes probably paid too much for where hed fit on a contender: the third line.

Schenn has three years left on a deal that pays $6.5 million and at 33, its unlikely that rapid cap growth can make that deal palatable.

Over the remainder of the deal, Schenn is closer to a $4 million player.

If the Blues can extract positive value despite that, it will be quite the coup for the organization.

Schenn looks rejuvenated, but unless theres some salary retention, his contract still looks like a potential roadblock.

Ryan Donato: Its been nice seeing Donato shine in a bigger role this season.

Hes long been a useful under-the-radar player, one who can produce efficiently and drive play, but the question was always whether he could perform further up the lineup.

This season weve got our answer as hes scored 19 goals and 39 points in 56 games while also being one of Chicagos top play-drivers.

Donato probably isnt a true top-six talent, but he could be a nice add to a team looking for responsible scoring on the third line especially when paired with someone who likes to chase pucks.

Donato is one of the most involved forwards on entries, but only carries it in 42 percent of the time.

Andrei Kuzmenko: After an exhilarating first season, Kuzmenko has really struggled to recreate the magic over the past two seasons.

This year has been especially challenging because hes not shooting as much and his finishing has fallen off completely.

Kuzmenko scored on 20 percent of his shots at five-on-five in his first two seasons.

This year hes at 3.5 percent.

Advertisement Perhaps thats bad luck and he could be worth the gamble for a team desperate for some finish.

But Kuzmenko isnt involved enough elsewhere to make it worthwhile for most teams.

Hes not a true top-six forward and doesnt profile well for a bottom-six role.

Theres talent here that a patient team may be able to extract, but for most contenders, hes a difficult fit.

Yanni Gourde: For teams in search of a classic shutdown center, Gourde is their guy.

His plus-1.2 Defensive Rating makes him the best defensive center on the market and its shown this season.

With Gourde on the ice, the Kraken have given up 0.39 fewer expected goals against per 60 which would be a career best.

Gourdes defensive prowess was a major catalyst to the Lightning winning back-to-back Cups and it sure seems hes still got it.

Casey Mittelstadt: Its been a tough year for Mittelstadt.

He was supposed to be Colorados 2C for years to come, but has struggled to fit in with the Avalanche.

His five-on-five points per 60 has dropped to 1.45 from 2.25 the previous two seasons and his expected goals percentage is a pedestrian 45 percent.

Is that entirely his fault, or does it have something to do with the lack of linemate consistency hes had to deal with this season? Its tough to say, but the one striking thing about Mittelstadts tracked data is how hes become less involved in transition.

Hes one of the leagues better forwards at bringing the puck up ice, hes just doing it far less in Colorado.

Given his pedigree and playmaking ability, Mittelstadt feels like a worthy reclamation project, but theres a real possibility he just isnt a true top-six center.

Scott Laughton: After a trying 2023-24 season, Laughton is back to being a perfectly cromulent third-liner.

Hes the definition of mid.

This season, Laughton has a 55 percent xG rate and while hes struggled to turn that expected advantage into a real one (for the fourth straight season), his ability to push play in the right direction is still useful in a bottom-six role.

Trevor Zegras: Weve seen a lot of players leave Anaheim and immediately rebound to the point that there has to be something in the water there.

When it comes to Ducks players, sometimes you have to throw the numbers out the window.

Zegras has a 42 percent xG rate and has been badly outscored.

The Ducks do a lot better without him on the ice.

For the second straight season, hes struggling to score at even a half-a-point-per-game rate.

Hes looked rough and doesnt currently grade out as a top-six forward.

The talent is there though for the soon-to-be 24-year-old, and its obvious in some of the things he does individually with the puck.

But for whatever reason, its not working in Anaheim.

The question is whether it can elsewhere.

Will a change of scenery fix what ails Zegras, or is this just the player he is? Thats the risk and whether its worth taking depends on the price.

Jordan Greenway: Need a winger who often keeps the puck as far away from the opponents net as possible? Greenway is your guy.

He posts strong defensive numbers every season, usually as a result of his forechecking ability.

Hes the perfect player for a checking line.

Depth forwards Nick Bjugstad: A potential fourth-line luxury.

While Bjugstad may not be as impactful as he was the last time he was a trade target, hes still a player who can play his shift to a draw.

In the bottom six, thats a win.

Over the last two seasons, Bjugstad has been really helpful at getting pucks out of his own zone.

Advertisement Jake Evans: Defensively sound with some scoring punch what more could you ask from a bottom-six center? Evans is savvy at getting pucks out and would be a strong fourth-line upgrade for any team.

Trent Frederic: There are some big concerns with Frederics ability to exit the zone this year, but even with that in mind, hes put up perfectly average numbers at five-on-five.

Hes fine; a versatile forward who would be an upgrade to most fourth lines though on a contending team, Id be hesitant to play him higher.

Justin Brazeau: There was a lot of hype surrounding Brazeau during last years playoffs, but hes struggled to keep that momentum going this season.

His xG rate dropped from 59 percent last year to 50 percent this year.

Still, Brazeau looks like he could be an effective third-liner, one with a tantalizing 6-foot-6, 227-pound frame.

Anthony Beauvillier: While he may be scoring more this season with better possession numbers, Beauvilliers tracking numbers look fairly dismal.

He struggles in every area: shot contributions, zone entries, zone exits, you name it.

Theres a good reason why Beauvillier has bounced around the league over the last few years and he would be an odd fit in a contending bottom six.

Nick Robertson: On one hand, Robertson has scored 1.18 goals/60 over the last two seasons at five-on-five 15th among forwards.

On the other, hes struggled to actually create much offense outside of that and his failure to seize a top-six opportunity could be telling.

Theres still potential here thanks to his finishing touch, and to his credit, hes looked great since the 4 Nations break.

With a bigger role, Robertson could break out, but theres a reason the Leafs probably view him as expendable.

Joel Armia: He was legitimately great defensively last season, but Armia has regressed this year.

Whether he can channel what he did last year in a new locale is the big question.

If he can, he could work on a contending fourth line.

Hes a strong forechecker.

Mathieu Olivier: He was a great story for the Blue Jackets early in the season thanks to a hot start, but Olivier has tapered off since.

With an increased role, he has just two goals and four points in 23 games since the holiday break.

Hes still a useful fourth-liner who can surprise with some scoring, but I wouldnt expect much more than that.

Advertisement Michael McCarron: Last years 12 goals were a fluke, but McCarron is decent on draws and can hold his own defensively though he does struggle to get pucks out.

Hes a fine fourth-line center who can kill penalties, but probably not much of an upgrade for most contenders.

Brandon Tanev: Tanev is still fast and hardworking, but his outputs have taken a turn for the worse over the last two seasons.

The 33-year-old could be a good fourth-line fit somewhere, but he doesnt appear to be the effective defender he once was.

The Kraken give up 0.31 more xGA/60 with Tanev on the ice.

Luke Kunin: Has struggled up the lineup in San Jose (38 percent xG) and is likely a key contributor to the teams struggles.

Its possible Kunin could be a useful fourth-line player with some edge, but he has a lot of red flags in his game that suggest he might hurt his new team more than he helps.

Data via Evolving Hockey , Hockey Stat Cards , Natural Stat Trick and All Three Zones (Photos of Brad Marchand and Mikko Rantanen: Maddie Meyer and Sarah Stier / Getty Images).

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