NHL trade deadline: Analyzing the numbers behind the top defensemen available

The NHL trade deadline is just over a week away and were diving deep with the numbers behind the names from Chris Johnstons latest trade board .

Which defensemen can actually move the needle? Which defensemen can capably fill depth roles? Which defensemen should teams probably avoid? Thats the name of the game here lets dive in with all the available defensemen.

GO DEEPER NHL trade deadline: Analyzing the numbers behind the top forwards available Top-four defensemen Erik Karlsson: While he still has plenty of game, Karlsson is who hes always been: A very gifted offensive force who gives a lot back the other way.

Only these days the offense is a bit more muted and the defensive lapses feel a bit more prominent.

Among back-end options, Karlsson has the highest projected Offensive Rating at plus-11.1 ...

and the lowest Defensive Rating at minus-2.8.

With Karlsson, you know exactly what youre getting.

Advertisement That means he needs a very specific fit, namely a blue line desperate for offense that can cover up for his escapades without the puck.

Thats a tall ask, especially considering Karlsson still has three years left at $10 million per season.

The 34-year-old also isnt having his best year driving play.

Perhaps that has more to do with the circumstances around him, but Karlssons relative xG rate is only average, a steep drop from where he was the last three seasons.

And there might be good reason for that based on data tracked by Corey Sznajder .

Throughout his career, Karlsson has always been one of the leagues best at retrieving pucks and getting them out he was a one-man breakout machine.

This season, hes struggled with his controlled exit rate dropping from 67 percent to 45 percent, while his ability to turn retrievals into exits has dropped from 58 percent to 49 percent.

Karlsson still does both at a high volume, just not as effectively.

Perhaps thats just a blip on a bad team, but it could also be a red flag for prospective teams.

A big part of Karlssons charm is his innate ability to exit the zone and any team acquiring him better be sure hes still got that ability in his arsenal.

Seth Jones: Unfortunately for Chicago, Jones ended up being nowhere near the price the Blackhawks paid to acquire him both in terms of asset capital and an onerous contract well above his means.

Even with a rising cap, Jones is not a $9.5 million player (hes probably closer to $6.5 million over the next five years).

That he isnt is how the team got into this mess in the first place as Jones was paid like someone who could raise a teams floor and failed to do so.

Jones is still a quality player who can help a lot of teams as long as expectations are tempered.

Hes having a difficult season, sure, but Jones is still a No.

2-caliber defenseman, one who does a lot of things well with the puck.

He facilitates offense, he can jump into the rush, and hes one of the leagues best at retrieving pucks and getting them out cleanly.

On a stronger team, his talent would have more opportunity to shine and he might even have a chance to live up to his massive contract.

Advertisement In Chicago, Jones has been a victim of his circumstances and its perhaps unfair to expect any player no matter how talented to keep a sinking ship afloat.

The Blackhawks are a mess and while thats not entirely on Jones, it did help reveal that some of the hype surrounding him went too far.

Wherever he goes next, the most important thing will be keeping a level head about what he brings.

Jones is not the elite franchise defenseman he was once billed as, but he still has potential to seriously move the needle for a contending team.

Bowen Byram: Fun fact: Byram is just 23 years old.

And this year, hes finally looking like the player he was hyped to be.

At five-on-five, his 1.49 points per 60 ranks seventh among defensemen.

His underlying numbers have improved drastically and hes again looking like an elite puck-mover after a tough 2023-24 season.

Byrams controlled exit rate of 82 percent is one of the best marks in the league.

The concern with Byram is how much of his success is driven by his partnership with Rasmus Dahlin.

Fair point, and hes not someone who could be considered a true top-pair defenseman for that reason.

But Im also not going to hold his lack of success with Henri Jokiharju, Connor Clifton and Jacob Bryson against him either.

Byram is an RFA at the end of this season which is likely why hes available.

But given his obvious talent level and how hes put things together this season, Id be very hesitant to move him if I were Buffalo.

Byram will probably be expensive, but with a rising cap, hed probably be worth it as he enters his prime.

Ivan Provorov: While his underlying numbers may not leap off the page, Provorov has carved out a fine career of modestly handling tougher minutes.

Hes not a top-pair defenseman, but on a second pair, hes serviceable.

His relative impacts have hovered a shade below average for most of his career and given the degree of difficulty he usually faces, thats more than fine for the top four.

Provorov wont be a sexy addition and doesnt excel at any one particular thing.

But he also doesnt have many weak points either.

Hes an adequate puck-mover, hes fine at creating offense and hes OK without the puck.

For a team in need of a dependable No.

4, he provides a sturdy presence.

Connor Murphy: While not quite the caliber of player Jake McCabe was at the time, theres similar defensive upside in extracting Murphy out of Chicago.

His projected Defensive Rating of plus-3.0 is the best on the board and stems from an ability to suppress chances throughout his career.

Every season, Murphys teams have allowed fewer chances with him on the ice compared to off.

This seasons 0.29 fewer expected goals against per 60 is close to a career best.

Murphy doesnt play shutdown minutes and his puck skills arent the best offensively, he wont bring much to the table.

But he looks like the best bet out there for a team that needs a defensive stopper on its second pair.

Rasmus Ristolainen: No, this isnt a typo: Ristolainen is indeed listed under top-four defensemen.

Its been an incredible journey for the once analytically maligned defenseman, but Ristolainens game has been completely rebuilt in Philadelphia to the point hes become a legitimately attractive asset.

By Net Rating, he does indeed grade out as second-pair caliber.

Advertisement Over the last two seasons, Ristolainen has done well for himself in a second-pair role, earning 53.5 percent of the expected goals a result of strong defensive play.

Not being fed to the wolves with the toughest minutes in the league has helped with that, but its not like Ristolainen is playing sheltered third-pair minutes either.

Ristolainen has found his level and the Flyers brass deserve a lot of credit for his turnaround.

He still has some red flags when moving the puck, but the right partner can alleviate that.

Ristolainens game is tailor-made for the playoffs and with how hes looked lately, he can be a real postseason difference-maker.

Depth defensemen Brandon Carlo: There was a time when Carlo was a no doubt top-four shutdown defender, but the last two seasons havent been kind.

Carlo still projects to be a positive defensive influence due to his prior work there in difficult minutes.

But his limited puck skill means he either needs to play with a puck-mover, or further down the lineup.

Hes been exposed a bit without Hampus Lindholm next to him and has a 44 percent xG rate this season.

Carlo does have the strongest penalty-kill impact of any defender available.

Brian Dumoulin: At this point of his career, Dumoulin is what he is: a third-pair defender.

His numbers looked rosy in a sheltered role for the Kraken in 2023-24 and thats probably the best-case scenario for an acquiring team.

On the third pair, Dumoulin can still break the puck out well and his defensive instincts remain sound just dont expect more.

The Ducks did and hes struggled this season.

Ryan Lindgren: Over the last two seasons, Lindgren has spent about 75 percent of his minutes with Adam Fox.

Somehow, Lindgrens xG percentage is eight percentage points lower than his most frequent partner an impressive feat that likely points to how out of his depth Lindgren is on the top pair.

His decline from top-pair defender to third-pair quality over the last two years has been swift.

Lindgren isnt unplayable, but he needs to be sheltered.

If he cant succeed in a top-four role next to a guy like Fox, there isnt much hope for a top-four fit elsewhere.

David Savard: While he may have a reputation for defensive ability, Savards actual results over the last several seasons have been notably porous.

In past seasons he at least had the tough minutes excuse, but thats not the case this year where hes getting third-pair usage and still struggling with 44 percent of the expected goals, well below team average.

Savards size, playoff pedigree and willingness to put his body on the line make him an interesting gamble.

He could be a postseason warrior type, but be warned that his extreme lack of puck-moving ability makes him a liability even at the bottom of the lineup.

Jamie Oleksiak: Hes got size and experience soaking up tough minutes.

What Oleksiak has done in those minutes over the last two seasons, though, has been uneven.

Last year the Kraken earned 50 percent of the expected goals with Oleksiak, this year thats dropped to 42 percent and thats despite a massive partner upgrade in Brandon Montour.

Much of Oleksiaks drop has come in the way of driving offense and thats something many often miss with shutdown defenders.

The best can not only stop the other team, they can also make sure not to destroy their own teams offense in the process a necessity given they often play with the teams best players.

Oleksiak may still have top-four game, especially in a shutdown capacity, but an acquiring team better be sure he wont kill their offense in the process.

Carson Soucy: Similar to Oleksiak, Soucy went from a guy who looked solid in tough minutes to one whos drowning in them.

Last year he rocked a 50.5 percent xG.

This year thats dropped to 43 percent.

The size and history make Soucy an intriguing option, but theres risk if he cant get back to last years level.

Mario Ferraro: There arent many defenders in the league tougher to get a read on than Ferraro.

Theres no doubt he can show more away from the Sharks, but its also true that part of the teams immense struggles are due to Ferraro playing a prominent role.

Even in easier minutes this season, Ferraro is still rocking a 44 percent xG and 36 percent goal rate.

Ferraro just doesnt look like a possession driver with a weak ability to keep pucks out of his zone, get them out, or create any offense the other way.

Ferraro could be fine with a stronger partner or in a sheltered role, but there are a lot of red flags in his game that cant be completely excused by the contextual factors around him.

Data via Evolving Hockey , Hockey Stat Cards , Natural Stat Trick and All Three Zones (Top photo of Erik Karlsson: Patrick Smith / Getty Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.