2025 MLB Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

Photo by Mike Carlson/MLB Photos via Getty Images Another dogfight atop the NL East.

The National League has outpaced the Junior Circuit over the past couple of seasons, and while the NL West is shaping up to be tough-as-nails, the tightest division in the game might end up being the NL East.

Juan Soto makes the Mets a whole lot better, Ronald Acuna Jr.

will hopefully play more games in 2025 than in 2024, and the Phillies return most of their all-around roster that won 95 games a year ago.Still, the cracks in whats been a reasonably successful squad are starting to show, not the least because of the age and depth or lack thereof.Philadelphia Phillies2024 Record: 95-67 (1st, NL East)2025 FanGraphs Projection: 87-75 (2nd, NL East)Six of the nine projected starting hitters will be 32 or older this season, and while nobody in the expected lineup is necessarily bad, it does feel like weve seen the best of what most of the guys have to offer.

A game I like to play with rosters is who here could have a 90th percentile outcome and not be that surprising?.

For example, I would not be surprised to see Aaron Judge top a 200 wRC+ this season, one where hes projected for a 176, because in two of the previous three seasons hes done it.

Its certainly unlikely, but if he did it, hey, Ive seen him do it already.

Similarly, I think Cody Bellinger could blow past his 113 wRC+ projection not likely, but if he ended the season at 135 or so, yeah I could buy that.With the Phillies, is there anyone other than Bryce that you could see obliterating their projections and buying it? Kyle Schwarber brings his discipline and plus plus power, sure, but over the last four years has managed a 130 wRC+, not otherworldly compared to his 2024 projection.

JT Realmuto will be 34 by Opening Day.

The Phillies should still have a strong offense, but weve seen the upside.On the pitching side of things, Zack Wheeler is as good as it gets atop the rotation, and three others are pegged to be worth at least three wins apiece.

The big wild card might be offseason acquisition Jesus Luzardo, who lost another season in 2024 to injury but was a legitimate starter just two years ago.

Luzardo has tantalized with stuff and prospect shine for a while now, but health has always been his challenge.

If the Phillies can figure out his body, this becomes the best or second-best rotation in the whole league.What was missing from Philly this winter was a big answer to a bad playoff loss to the Mets, and the subsequent signing of Soto.

John Middletons never been one to shy away from improving the team, and while Andrew Painter is likely untouchable, theres enough interesting prospect capital that the team could be waiting for the deadline to make their splash.The Phillies have been one of the more fun teams to watch in recent years, and theyre still going to be good.

We also likely have past the peak of this roster.

The fun quotient is still here though, and theyll likely be close to the top of teams I most frequently watch in 2025, non-Yankees division of course..

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