Mailbag: The Big 12’s best bets for a super league (or the SEC or Big Ten), reverse-merger talk, Gould’s role and more

The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly.

Send questions to [email protected] and include mailbag in the subject line.

Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotlineSome questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.The Big 12 seems to be devoid of larger brands that get rumored as eventual expansion targets of the Big Ten and SEC.

In the early 2030s, the three conferences will be up for new media deals.

Which schools do you see emerging as the marquee Big 12 brands that could be targeted for membership in the Big Two? @CougarCentreSLCThere are several layers to this topic, but lets begin with the calendar.The Big Tens media rights agreement with Fox, CBS and NBC expires in the summer of 2030.

The Big 12s deal with ESPN and Fox expires in the summer of 2031, and the SECs agreement with ESPN runs until the summer of 2034.So yes, at some point in the early years of the decade, another wave of realignment could hit the industry.There is no guarantee the Big Ten and SEC will expand any structural change could instead result in the formation of a super league and in the event they do seek more members, Big 12 teams would assuredly qualify as Plan B options.Why? Because the first target will be Notre Dame, followed by North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and perhaps Miami.Those football programs are more valuable than any in the Big 12, in part for their regional appeal.

Fox, which owns the Big Tens rights, does not have a major college football property in Florida.

(Apologies to UCF.)We have written numerous times over the past 18 months that the dearth of blue bloods in the Big 12 is a blessing and curse.

It creates stability, because no school can be considered a flight risk, and terrific competitive parity.

But it limits the conferences market value.That said, lets consider the question above using the following backdrop for the early 2030s: Either the SEC and Big Ten expand, or a super league is created; and the total number of schools included in either scenario is roughly 48.Given that the two conferences have 34 combined members, and assuming none of them are excluded in some fashion, there would be 14 spots available for newcomers.Next, lets allocate four to Notre Dame, North Carolina, Clemson and Florida State.

That leaves 10.In the ACC, Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, Louisville and NC State would probably be on the top tier of candidates.What about the Big 12? Which schools are likely to emerge as the marquee brands over the next five or six years?Three come immediately to mind: Arizona State, Brigham Young and Texas Tech.Success in the revenue-sharing era will depend on resources, and all three have proven or potential advantages on that front whether its deep-pocketed alumni (Texas Tech), institutional wealth (BYU) or a massive community and alumni base (ASU).The degree to which those resources are tapped will frame each schools success when roster construction hinges on 1) sharing roughly $15 million with football players and 2) creating NIL opportunities over-and-above the revenue-sharing figure.Of course, there are hurdles for all of them.ASU has been inconsistent for decades and struggled to resonate in the community, although Kenny Dillingham is making progress in that regard.Brigham Young, of course, brings institutional challenges.

Its awfully difficult to envision the Big Ten presidents inviting the Cougars (in the same way the Pac-12 presidents were wary).And beyond any challenges with roster composition resulting from geography, Texas Techs media value is limited.The other school worth mentioning is Utah, which seemingly doesnt possess the array of resource options (donor, institutional, community) to match the three schools mentioned above.But for many reasons, the Utes are the most Big Ten-esque school in the Big 12 by a factor of 10.Our question is their competitive success in the post-Kyle Whittingham world.

(Hes probably not coaching into the 2030s.) If coach-in-waiting Morgan Scalley keeps the program humming, Utah might be the top option for super league inclusion.All of which leads to this: None of the Big 12 schools are as likely to climb into the Big Ten, SEC or a super league as North Carolina, Clemson and Florida State.But it doesnt take much to envision tiers emerging within a conference that, at this point, seems stocked with parity.

And those tiers could be quite relevant in the early 2030s.What is the Four Corners schools revenue share in the Big 12? Did they sign a grant-of-rights agreement for 99 years? @jimmy0726Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are full-share members of the Big 12 and will receive approximately $31 million, on average, through the term of the media deal with Fox and ESPN.In that regard, their annual media rights distributions are comparable to those being collected annually by Oregon and Washington, which receive half shares of the Big Tens media rights.(The main difference between the Big 12 schools and Oregon and Washington is the College Football Playoff revenue model, which will deliver roughly $9 million more per year to the Ducks and Huskies than the Big 12 members.)As for the contract terms, no: The Four Corners are not locked into the Big 12 for 99 years.The grant-of-rights agreement runs until the summer of 2031 and is fairly binding because of the immense financial commitment it ensures.The 99-year term obligation is a separate legal document and would be broken (by any and all schools) if the Big Ten, SEC or a super league comes calling.

Depending on the circumstances, any departing members could be subject to exit fees.

Those can, and usually are, negotiated down.In other words: Everything is possible for 2031 and beyond.Why are there 15 teams and not 16 in the Big Ten basketball tournament? Just curious.

@Steve_McNearBoth the Big Ten and ACC decided to create 15-team conference tournaments, meaning three schools will be excluded in the Big Ten and two in the ACC.

But the math obviously works with 16; both the Big 12 and SEC will have 16-team events.Unfortunately, we cant offer insight into the Big Tens decision, but here are several matters to consider.There is no difference in duration: All four conference tournaments are five-round events.

(The ACC and Big 12 run Tuesday through Saturday; the Big Ten and SEC are Wednesday through Sunday.)And all four tournaments grant double-byes for the top-four seeds, meaning they advance directly into the quarterfinals.Where the two models diverge is the treatment of the No.

9 seeds: The 15-team events give No.

9s an opening-round bye; they face the No.

8 seeds on the second day.

The 16-team events match No.

9s against No.

16s on the first day.Does the concept of Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould working for Washington State and Oregon State sit well with the presidents from the other schools? @CelestialMoshBy other schools, we assume youre referring to the five members joining in 2026: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State from the Mountain West and Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference.Yes, Gould is paid by the Pac-12, and as of now, the Pac-12 is just WSU and OSU.

But shes also working for the five arriving members on issues pertaining to 2026 and beyond.

They are heavily involved in the strategic discussions for all practical purposes, they are already members.And based on our conversations, the newcomers are quite satisfied with the manner in which Gould is managing the conference in its present and future forms.Did the Pac-12 and Mountain West ever make a genuine attempt to reverse merge knowing the Pac-12 had to exist to get the assets? Did the Pac-12 refuse due to a few schools? Whats the story with the merger? @TonyOnlyTo the best of our knowledge, there were no formal negotiations over a reverse merger.Washington State and Oregon State considered that option for months and concluded it wasnt right.

Yes, they were less-than-thrilled with the Mountain Wests stance on the football scheduling agreement.And in the interest of full transparency, we never quite understood the position, either.

The moment the Cougars and Beavers reached a settlement with the departing Pac-12 schools and gained access to hundreds of millions of dollars, the Mountain West should have done everything possible to embrace its neighbor.

Instead, it adopted a hardline position.(Whether that was commissioner Gloria Nevarezs decision or she was operating with specific instructions from the university presidents, we cannot say.)But there were other challenges.

For example, absorbing the entire Mountain West would have diluted the Pac-12s media rights value.

Also, it would have hindered the pursuit of College Football Playoff bids, with the least competitive schools hurting the best teams strength-of-schedule component.All in all, there were a few too many obstacles, especially with the variance in positions on the scheduling agreement.You have previously talked about the idea of Olympic sports teams getting back to competing in more regional conferences.

I see the opposite continuing to happen with news of South Carolina, Florida State, LSU, and Texas joining the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation for beach volleyball? @Brian_Wood45We view the growth of the MPSF over time as proof of concept.

The SEC doesnt sponsor beach volleyball, so those teams lacked the option to participate in a regional conference.Eventually, it will become clear if it hasnt already that realignment doesnt work for the Olympic sports.

Its bad for athlete welfare and isnt cost-effective.

And this includes mens and womens basketball.When the next media contract cycle arrives in the 2030s, common sense will prevail.

Football will be treated separately, and all other sports will compete in regional leagues.That cannot happen currently because so many sports (softball, soccer, volleyball) are structurally tethered to football.In the NIL era, are big-time college athletes immune from being academically ineligible? It has been a while since I heard about a star player having to sit out.

Is being in good academic standing written into NIL contracts? Matthew WThe NIL (name, image and likeness) contracts are based on participation: Athletes get paid to play and perform.

(Many times, they get paid before they even set foot on the field or court.)There are guardrails, in the form of the Academic Progress Rate, which holds the schools accountable for eligibility and retention.

If a teams score falls below a certain threshold, penalties follow.Our sense is the APR has helped lower the number of academic casualties.We also expect NIL contracts to become more sophisticated in the revenue-sharing era, mostly to protect the employers.

But gearing the payments to classroom performance seems unlikely.Will Cal still have a football team in 2035? @MattRexroadYes, because the Bears are contractually obligated to compete in the ACC through the 2035-36 academic year.

But we understand the sentiment: There are so many forces working against football programs at the schools with elite academics.Honestly, the ideal outcome would be the creation of a Super-Ivy conference filled with the likes of Cal and Stanford, Vanderbilt and Duke, Northwestern and Rice.

You could add Boston College, Virginia and Wake Forest, plus Georgia Tech and even the service academies.The economics would be difficult, particularly on the revenue side (ticket sales, media rights, postseason access).So it would appear Cal and others are stuck in purgatory for the foreseeable future.The super league could be their salvation.

If they dont make the cut, they would have an excuse to downsize the scope of football.*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to [email protected] or call 408-920-5716*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline.

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