Women's college basketball bracket watch: Who earns final No. 1 seed? USC or UConn?

(Editors note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the mens and womens NCAA Tournaments , along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.) The NCAA selection committee revealed its first iteration of the top 16 , giving us our first view into how its evaluating the season thus far.

Advertisement One of the most important aspects of understanding the bubble is having a precise image of the top, as it will set the scale for the rest of the bracket and evaluation as a whole.

I overreacted to UCLAs loss to rival USC last week by dropping them off the No.

1 seed line; the selection committee did not condemn it as harshly by keeping the Bruins as the overall top seed.

I understand how jarring it is to seed the line shift.

The top five this season has been especially complicated in womens basketball, considering the head-to-head wins and losses to one another.

The committee rewarded UCLA for its overall dominance through the season so far, and Ill adjust accordingly to weigh that more heavily.

My biggest surprise with how the selection committee seeded was placing Notre Dame as the fourth and final No.

1 seed.

Especially given the importance it seemed to place on UCLAs dominance (Notre Dame had won 17 straight games prior to the seed list reveal), I was a bit curious why it seeded Notre Dame below Texas at the very least.

Considering Notre Dame has that head-to-head win over Texas, its striking to see the Longhorns still seeded higher.

You can point to the differential in Quad 1 wins to make the argument that Texas has the strongest resume in the country.

Theres also the awkwardness that comes with South Carolina splitting games with Texas and not having played Notre Dame.

If Texas is over South Carolina, its harder to justify Notre Dame below Texas, in my mind, as youre probably weighing more heavily the most recent head-to-head.

It seems like theres less value on head-to-head wins by the selection committee.

Im sure it will still play a part in the minor differences, but given our first batch of the reveal, I dont anticipate it will play as strongly an overall factor as I expected.

The last No.

1 seed Southern California snags the final spot on the No.

1 seed line after the chaos of last weekend.

Given how much weight the selection committee put on the total resume, I toyed with South Carolina maintaining a spot on the top line.

However, my sense is that its 29-point loss to UConn will likely drop it.

The Gamecocks still have a tremendous tournament resume and could wind up with a No.

1 seed, with games against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Kentucky remaining to close SEC play.

Advertisement But such a thorough drubbing is a big hit to the dominance that the selection committee has valued for top-line teams.

What about UConn? A No.

1 seed isnt out of the question if the Huskies win out the Big East in dominant fashion (which I expect for the remainder of the regular season and the conference tournament), but theyll need some luck with results in the SEC and Big Ten.

With head-to-head losses against Notre Dame and USC, I envision that being a separator for the final spot at the moment, as the Trojans take hold.

GO DEEPER Women's college basketball national title odds: A new favorite emerges A quad refresher Ive been asked about this a few times, so as we inch closer to March, the timing seems apt to refresh on the system that the womens selection committee is using for the first time.

The quad system is similar to the NET; its not necessarily a direct evaluation tool but serves as an additional lens to compare teams.

There are four quadrants, ranges to ascribe value to a game played, tying in with the NET to sort out the level of competition.

Quad 1 games Home game against a team ranked 1-25 in the NET Neutral site games against a team 1-35 in the NET Away games against a team ranked 1-45 in the NET Quad 2 games Home game against a team ranked 26-55 in the NET Neutral site games against a team 36-65 in the NET Away games against a team ranked 46-80 in the NET Quad 3 games Home game against a team ranked 56-90 in the NET Neutral site games against a team 66-105 in the NET Away games against a team ranked 81-130 in the NET Quad 4 games Home game against a team ranked 91-362 in the NET Neutral site games against a team 106-362 in the NET Away games against a team ranked 131-362 in the NET Lets look at two teams with similar records and similar rankings in the NET, but theres a much larger difference in where theyre seeded.

While the quad system isnt the end-all be-all to determine seeding, its important to help break down and decipher a teams value.

With these guidelines, one can understand why Tennessee would be seeded much higher than West Virginia, having played in and won significantly more games against upper-echelon opponents.

Its also helpful in understanding the impact of losses, as the Volunteers have suffered no defeats outside of Quad 1 opposition.

Advertisement Can the Big Tens second tier rise? After Ohio States loss to Indiana on Thursday, Id project no Big Ten teams other than USC and UCLA would host if the season ended today.

The SEC and ACC currently dominate the top 16.

How does that next crop of Big Ten teams stack up, and how could they elevate into those positions? Ohio State, Maryland, and Michigan State are the three teams most likely to jump into the top 16, and coincidentally intermingle the next two weeks to close Big Ten play.

That means great games for us, but were likely to see some of these teams knock each other out of contention for a top-four seed as they fight each other.

Though Ohio State was in the selection committees top 16 reveal, the Buckeyes could drop out after their tough loss to the Hoosiers.

When weighing Ohio States resume against a top-notch SEC team such as Alabama, the Crimson Tide have stronger wins, a stronger resume, and look more like a team worthy of that final No.

4 seed.

However, Ohio State is the best positioned out of the second tier of the Big Ten to rise to a higher seeding.

The Buckeyes take on Purdue, Michigan State and Maryland to close the regular season, the latter two being strong opportunities to add statement Quad 1 wins.

More importantly for the Buckeyes, beating the Spartans and Terrapins would help boost their position while lowering direct competitors for the same seeding.

Michigan State plays Indiana, Ohio State and Minnesota to finish out Big Ten play.

Beating the Buckeyes is a must for the Spartans to wind up a host team, and winning all three would be ideal.

Illinois is probably out of the picture for a host seed without a win against USC this weekend and a strong Big Ten tournament.

However, the Illini deserve massive praise for what theyve put together.

Makira Cook and Gretchen Dolan each played just one game in Big Ten play, and the Illini are 10-2 since a two-game skid after losing both to season-ending injuries.

If Michigan had beaten Maryland last weekend, it had a chance to wind up higher by running the table, but being a No.

6 seed at this stage after the gauntlet it went through during the start of Big Ten play is admirable.

Advertisement Maryland is in the most interesting position when it comes to potential seeding.

Injuries have hampered the Terrapins and contributed to some of their worst results.

Shyanne Sellers has been impacted by a knee injury suffered during the Texas loss and has missed time sparingly since then.

Bri McDaniels loss cant be undersold.

Lets say Maryland avenges its earlier loss to Ohio State when it hosts the Buckeyes on the final day of the Big Ten regular season.

I wonder if a statement win at the end of the year and quality play in the Big Ten tournament would cause the selection committee to boost Maryland.

So much can happen in the Big Ten, and lets not forget that the California powerhouses face off one last time on the final day of the regular season as well.

Ohio State is back at home Sunday for senior day at noon arrive early and wear your best scarlet! : https://t.co/1yzHraU1Va : https://t.co/jGdrgrfc7u #GoBucks Ohio State Womens Basketball (@OhioStateWBB) February 21, 2025 Stray thoughts The most fascinating race to watch down the stretch will be between the three North Carolina schools from the ACC.

Its unlikely we see more than one get a No.

2 seed, all nestled in the No.

2 and No.

3 seed lines.

With a statement win over NC State a few hours after the reveal, as well as a prior win over Duke, the Tar Heels appear to be in the drivers seat.

I wish we could have gotten this reveal this weekend because Id be intrigued to see how the selection committee took in South Carolinas loss to UConn.

The same BYU team that lost to TCU by 32 points last Tuesday beat Oklahoma State in Provo on Saturday.

The Big 12, it confuses the mind.

The Cowgirls have shown the potential for more, but keep an eye on the final game of their season against Kansas, who beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater earlier this year.

Three of Oklahoma States losses have come on the road.

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