Ten MLB teams that should prepare to target Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in free agency

When Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

stepped to the microphone Tuesday morning in Dunedin, Fla., and announced that he and the Blue Jays had not found common ground on a contract extension in fact, the two sides werent even close it sent a loud message to the rest of the league: A rare free-agent jewel could be yours in less than nine months.

Advertisement This past offseason, Juan Sotos free agency dominated the headlines.

Next offseason, another 26-year-old superstar is now primed to hit the open market.

Obviously, not all 30 MLB teams will be able to entertain acquiring Guerrero many because of cost, several because of players they already have signed at first base, and others because their owners and front office executives dont want to commit that many years and dollars to any player.

For example, the Braves are committed to Matt Olson, the Dodgers to Freddie Freeman, the Phillies to Bryce Harper, and the Astros to Christian Walker.

Therefore, those teams dont figure to pursue Guerrero in free agency; they could potentially trade their current stars (some of whom have full or limited no-trade clauses), but its unlikely.

We also know that small-market teams such as the Marlins, Rays, Athletics and Pirates to name a few wont even consider adding the hefty contract that Guerrero will command.

But for the remaining teams that think they can afford him, the Vlad Jr.

sweepstakes will represent a massive opportunity with big upside, and of course, big risk.

Its still possible the Blue Jays and Guerrero reach an agreement on an extension.

We dont know how this season will unfold how Guerrero and the Jays will perform, if hell stay healthy, and whether hell be traded at some point.

But he sure looks headed for free agency in November.

So, lets look ahead to next offseason.

Here are 10 teams that I think make some sense as suitors for Guerrero in free agency.

Ive ordered them based on my current view of the most likely landing spots for him next winter.

1.

Toronto Blue Jays Guerrero said he wants to be a Blue Jay for life and I think he means it.

Hes a Canadian citizen and has spent his entire professional career with the Blue Jays since debuting at age 17 with Rookie-level Bluefield in the Appalachian League.

He turns 26 next month.

This will be his seventh major-league season with Toronto.

Hes averaged 34 home runs per season over the past four years while playing in 156 or more games each season.

Advertisement Sotos record-breaking $765 million contract with the Mets changed the game for free agents in their mid-20s.

I think that deal made it impossible for Toronto to negotiate an extension with Guerrero over the past few months.

To make matters worse, the fact that the Blue Jays had offered both Shohei Ohtani and Soto north of $700 million and then held back the dollars in their talks with Guerrero didnt play well within his camp, which is understandable.

Again, Guerrero made it clear in Tuesdays press conference that the two sides werent close on a deal.

But its not all negative for Toronto.

Guerrero will give the Blue Jays the same opportunity as the other 29 clubs to sign him in free agency, which should give Jays fans at least some hope he could return.

And if Guerrero really wants to be a Blue Jay for the rest of his career, perhaps hed give Toronto the last crack to at least match the highest offer he receives.

They had their numbers, I had my numbers.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

confirms he and the Blue Jays did not reach an agreement on a contract extension before his Monday-night deadline.

pic.twitter.com/97Ci90EOSV Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) February 18, 2025 GO DEEPER Rosenthal: Blue Jays never should have reached this point with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

2.

Boston Red Sox Fenway Park would be a great fit for Guerrero; hes hit well there (1.054 career OPS), and would do serious damage to the Green Monster for years to come.

Boston is reportedly a destination that could appeal to him.

However, several potential obstacles could prevent the Red Sox from being a legitimate possibility.

First, if Triston Casas were to hit 25 to 30 home runs this year playing first base, its difficult to see how a pursuit of Guerrero would make sense financially for Boston.

Second, if the Red Sox decide to move Rafael Devers to first base which is what they should do after signing Alex Bregman then that would eliminate them as a Guerrero suitor as well, unless they decide to trade Devers.

To force either Devers or Guerrero to move to DH while still at the beginning of their prime years doesnt make sense either.

Third, although the Red Sox reportedly offered Soto a deal around $700 million, it still seems unlikely that Boston ownership would commit to putting a 12-year, $450 million-$750 million contract on their books, based on recent history.

Advertisement 3.

New York Yankees The Yankees would be a strong fit for Guerrero.

Paul Goldschmidt will be a free agent after this season and first base in the Bronx will be wide open for the long term.

Although Guerrero previously said he would never play for the Yankees, he later softened those comments and said he would consider it.

After losing out on Soto to the Mets this past offseason, I could see the Yankees jumping into a Guerrero sweepstakes and winning this time around.

He would give them much-needed support for Aaron Judge in the middle of their lineup.

4.

New York Mets Im not sure owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns are going to be interested in another free-agent bidding war after dropping $765 million to acquire Soto this past winter.

However, we cant put anything past the richest owner in MLB.

Asked on Tuesday about the Mets potentially pursuing Guerrero, Cohen said , Ill worry about that next year.

You cant have too many long-term contracts because then you lose your roster flexibility.

If Cohen does want Guerrero to team up with Soto for the next 12 to 15 years, the Mets will have an opening to do it.

First baseman Pete Alonso has an opt-out in his contract after this year, but even if he declines to exercise it, the Mets could DH him for 2026 and have Alonso hit behind Francisco Lindor, Soto and Guerrero, giving them a fearsome foursome in the lineup for one year.

5.

Texas Rangers The Rangers are entering a new era for their television and streaming rights and probably need to get a better idea of their future revenues before bidding on Guerrero, but on the surface, he looks like a perfect fit for Texas.

Trade acquisition Jake Burger will play first base for them this season, but he could move to DH and play as a backup at both first and third base as well.

Adolis Garcia is eligible for free agency after the 2026 season and pitchers Tyler Mahle and Jon Gray will be free agents after this season; if all three depart, close to $40 million per year would be freed up starting in 2027, which gives the Rangers a realistic payroll pathway to make a Guerrero contract work, especially if its backloaded and includes deferrals.

Advertisement Putting Guerrero with Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter and Josh Jung would give the Rangers quite a nucleus for the long term in the Lone Star State.

6.

San Francisco Giants Although the Giants best prospect is first baseman Bryce Eldridge, some scouts believe he could be adequate in left field, which makes San Francisco a more realistic landing spot for Guerrero in theory.

New president of baseball operations Buster Posey doesnt like to give opt-outs in contracts, but for the right contract Guerrero might agree to a deal without them.

The Giants signed Willy Adames to a club-record contract this past winter but have come up short when trying to land superstar free agents in recent history.

Maybe Guerrero will be the one to break that cycle and, more than 30 years later, give San Francisco a Barry Bonds-type free-agent signing.

7.

Chicago Cubs I think the Cubs will learn that Michael Busch isnt their long-term answer at first base and, if they cant re-sign right fielder Kyle Tucker to a long-term contract, perhaps theyll pivot and chase Guerrero.

To have a superstar like Guerrero as the longtime face of the franchise would be huge for the Cubs, who need to prepare for stiffer competition in the division; the National League Central should be very competitive in the coming years based on how all of the teams are building through strong farm systems.

The NL Central teams that can separate themselves will be the ones that can augment their rosters with big trades and signings; with Chicago being a big market, this is an area where the Cubs should have an advantage.

GO DEEPER Which MLB front offices, managers and teams are under the most pressure? Insiders weigh in 8.

Washington Nationals At some point, the Nationals will need to start spending again.

Guerrero would be a perfect fit with Washington as he would provide immediate protection for their young hitters, from James Wood to Dylan Crews to CJ Abrams.

Guerreros positive demeanor and attitude also would boost the Washington clubhouse.

The Nationals should have the financial flexibility since they havent added significant dollars to their payroll over the past several years.

(Their estimated 2025 payroll is currently $110 million, according to FanGraphs RosterResource.) First baseman Nathaniel Lowe, acquired in a trade with the Rangers this offseason, is under team control through 2026, but hes more of a stop-gap and not expected to be their long-term solution at first.

Advertisement 9.

Seattle Mariners Mariners ownership needs to step up and start spending on the major-league roster before this window to win a championship closes.

They desperately need a middle-of-the order impact bat to pair with Julio Rodriguez.

They might need to move the outfield walls in and tweak the batters eye to make T-Mobile park more hitter-friendly to seal the deal, but landing Guerrero would be a game-changer and could pave the way for the Mariners to win their first World Series.

10.

Los Angeles Angels No team has a worse recent track record than the Angels in terms of acquiring star position players with long-term contracts that havent worked out.

From big signings to big trades, its been bad.

Remember the trade with the Blue Jays for Vernon Wells (in which they inherited $86 million of his seven-year, $126 million deal)? Or signing Albert Pujols to a 10-year, $254 million contract? Or the $125 million pact with Josh Hamilton.

Or, more recently, the seven-year, $245 million agreement with Anthony Rendon? Or even Mike Trouts 12-year, $426.5 million deal? Ouch.

Do the Angels have the gumption to try again and attempt to land a superstar like Guerrero? Theyve rolled the dice in the past and lost big, but perhaps a deal with the son of former Halos star, Hall of Famer Vlad Sr., would break the cycle? GO DEEPER Bowden's MLB power rankings: Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies 1-2-3 as spring training starts GO DEEPER MLB offseason awards: Bowden's picks for best trades, signings, most improved team and more GO DEEPER Bowden: 12 MLB breakout candidates I'm excited to scout in spring training (Photo: Kevin Sousa / Getty Images).

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