Five pleasant surprises of the men's NCAA Tournament bubble: Can they keep it up?

Making the NCAA Tournament is the clearest universal bar of success in college basketball.

When coaches are fired, missing the dance is frequently cited as the prevailing reason.

Meanwhile, the emotion shown by every qualifying team during the Selection Sunday broadcast points to the significance of playing your way into the field.

Advertisement That target is top of mind for every team and fan base entering each season.

For some, though, its a much more far-fetched notion than for others.

The five teams below appeared to be long shots to punch a ticket to the NCAA Tournament this year, but with less than five weeks until Selection Sunday, they surprisingly sit well within range of hearing Adam Zucker call their names on March 16th.

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West Virginia (15-9, 6-7 Big 12) Preseason conference poll ranking: 13th of 16 in the Big 12 Preseason KenPom rank: 85 Current Bracket Watch projection : No.

8 seed, South Region A common thread for these surprising bubble teams: Three of the five brought in a new head coach in the offseason.

First-year boss Darian DeVries has immediately proven to be a fantastic hire in Morgantown.

What is not common, though, is a team losing arguably its best player to injury before the calendar even hit 2025.

DeVries son, Tucker DeVries, was off to a strong start to the season (14.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.5 blocks per game) after transferring in from Drake, and losing him to a season-ending shoulder issue threatened to torpedo West Virginias impressive nonconference showing.

DeVries injury put a greater burden on lead guard Javon Small, who has responded by becoming a legitimate All-American candidate.

He rarely leaves the court, and his ability to gauge what the team needs on a given night is special.

At times, hes an explosive scorer (six games with 25-plus points); other times, hes a devastating playmaker (33 assists with just seven turnovers in the past four games).

To complement that kind of on-ball dynamo, DeVries hauled in a cadre of bigger, versatile defenders from the transfer portal.

Toby Okani (Illinois-Chicago) can guard five positions.

Sencire Harris (Illinois) is a terror of an on-ball defender, and Eduardo Andre (Fresno State) is one of the Big 12s best rim protectors.

Advertisement That trio, all playing within a disciplined and connected man-to-man scheme, have made West Virginia a top 20 defense in the country in opponent-adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.

The Mountaineers are on the precipice of an at-large bid as a result.

2.

Oklahoma (16-7, 3-7 SEC) Preseason conference poll ranking: 15th of 16 in the SEC Preseason KenPom rank: 40 Current Bracket Watch projection : No.

10 seed, South Region Of all the teams on this list, perhaps Oklahoma is the one we should have seen coming.

Computer projections did, at least.

Sooners coach Porter Moser has been a model of consistency analytically during his tenure in Norman: Unfortunately, another consistent feature of his tenure has been a league-play swoon, and its happening again in Oklahomas first season in the SEC.

Thats not the story here, though.

Despite the currently unattractive conference record, Mosers ability to find diamonds in the rough has allowed Oklahoma to put itself squarely in the NCAA Tournament picture.

Jeremiah Fears has gone from an overlooked, reclassified recruit (tabbed No.

65 in the Class of 2024 by 247Sports) to a likely one-and-done star freshman.

A shooting slump in conference play has curbed the hype somewhat, but his combination of vision and suddenness off the bounce make him a menace to defend.

Pairing him with Duke Miles and Kobe Elvis, two combo guards who can also make plays and shoot, puts a lot of pressure on opposing on-ball defenders.

Moser also pulled Bryce Goodine, one of the nations most accurate three-point shooters, out of the MAAC from Fairfield, and late commit Glenn Taylor has given the Sooners an athletic wing presence.

They joined returner Jalon Moore, a bouncy forward who has become an all-conference-caliber scoring weapon as a senior.

The Sooners are still seeking their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2021.

But Moser and a relatively unheralded group of newcomers should be lauded for having them in the mix with a month to play.

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Vanderbilt (17-7, 5-6 SEC) Preseason conference poll ranking: 16th of 16 in the SEC Preseason KenPom rank: 95 Current Bracket Watch projection : No.

10 seed, West Region The consensus around Vanderbilts hire of Mark Byington as its new head coach was extremely positive.

Byington built Georgia Southern and James Madison into annual 20-game winners.

Very few, however, expected him to instantly do the same at arguably the SECs most difficult job.

Byington brought his signature up-tempo style to Nashville while turning over essentially the entire roster: Vandy ranks 348th out of 364 Division I teams in Minutes Continuity, per KenPom, a measure of how many minutes this season are being played by holdovers from the 2023-24 season.

Because of his transition- and pressure-heavy style, Byington prioritized mobility and athleticism in his big men acquisitions.

Jaylen Carey followed him from JMU, and the 6-8, 265-pounder is a shockingly fluid mover for someone of his size.

Devin McGlockton, meanwhile, has been one of the most underrated portal pickups of the cycle, dominating on the offensive glass at just 6-7, 230 pounds, while also ranking 10th in the country in effective field goal percentage.

His willingness and ability to battle SEC centers has given Byington immense lineup flexibility.

Another key element of Byingtons approach is having multiple ball-handlers on the court at all times.

AJ Hoggard is Vandys primary point guard, but Grant Huffman and Tyler Tanner are natural passers, as well.

Tanner, a freshman, has only registered four turnovers in 489 minutes as a freshman, a staggeringly low mistake rate.

Even scoring-minded Jason Edwards can mix some playmaking into his dazzling bucket-getting repertoire.

Even though the Commodores sit at 17-7 with seven games to play, its no guarantee they hit the 20-win mark.

Their remaining SEC schedule is that daunting.

But the fact that they are even close to that number and knocking on the door of their first Big Dance appearance since 2017 is evidence of just how impressive Byingtons instant success has been.

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SMU (19-5, 10-3 ACC) Preseason conference poll ranking: 13th of 18 in the ACC Preseason KenPom rank: 75 Current Bracket Watch projection : First Four Out SMUs story is quite similar to West Virginia and Vanderbilts tepid expectations for a first-year boss and a roster stuffed with new pieces made even more unlikely by the Mustangs jump from the American to the ACC.

In his first campaign in Dallas, Andy Enfield has done exactly what he did at USC: win a bunch of games, get in the bubble mix, sit between 45 and 55 in KenPom.

His Trojans finished in that narrow range of the rankings in six of his final nine seasons in Los Angeles, qualifying for the NCAA Tournament in five of those six years.

Enfield cleverly navigated the portal, bringing in two players with ACC experience to be his foundation: Boopie Miller (Wake Forest) and Matt Cross (Miami and Wake Forest, most recently at UMass).

Those two have been lineup mainstays, as have Chuck Harris and Kario Oquendo, two scoring guards with power-conference experience of their own.

Those players have helped drive SMUs biggest strength: lethal perimeter shooting.

The Mustangs rank ninth nationally in three-point percentage, and they constantly have four players on the court capable of burying a jumper.

They generate plenty of good looks; per Shot Quality, SMU ranked ninth in the country in Open 3 Rate before Tuesdays runaway win over Pitt.

While the offense has been the story, a sneaky-stout interior defense has given the Ponies a steady floor against inferior competition.

Turkish center Samet Yigitoglu is not particularly bouncy, but at 7-2, he cannot help but be a disruptive presence at the bucket.

Reserve big man Jerrell Colbert offers a true shot-blocking presence when Enfield needs it.

SMU has yet to beat any top-shelf competition, but even being in the NCAA Tournament mix is a positive result for Enfields debut at SMU.

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Nebraska Preseason conference poll ranking: T-12th of 18 in the Big Ten Preseason KenPom rank: 57 Current Bracket Watch projection : Last Four In Nebraska earned its second NCAA Tournament bid since 2000 last year, but after losing a bevy of key pieces, expectations for a repeat appearance were muted.

Those hopes were especially shaken with center Rienk Mast, a critical part of last years team on both ends, missing the entire season with injury.

Advertisement Credit to coach Fred Hoiberg, who built an unconventional roster full of unique players, including a few reclamation projects.

He has shaped those pieces into another competitive unit, capitalizing on those varying skill sets and extracting great production out of multiple players coming off disappointing seasons.

Berke Buyuktuncel arrived at UCLA in fall of 2023 with plenty of hype, but the towering, talented Turkiye native struggled with injuries and never found his groove in Westwood.

Another Pac-12 refugee, Rollie Worster, missed the final 21 games of his last season with Utah due to injury.

Both have thrived as starters in Lincoln, and their positional size has bolstered the Huskers hyper-compact defense.

Connor Essegian became little more than an afterthought as a sophomore at Wisconsin after a standout rookie campaign.

His three-point marksmanship off the bench has been a valuable asset for Hoiberg.

Of course, the Huskers engines are returning veteran wings Brice Williams and Juwan Gary.

Williams is a nightmare matchup as a 6-7 scoring machine who can shoot or attack off the bounce.

Hes fresh off winning National Player of the Week honors for his efforts in wins over Illinois and Oregon.

Gary, meanwhile, is a versatile defensive menace who has also averaged 18.0 points per game during Nebraskas recent four-game winning streak.

(Photo: Alonzo Adams / Imagn Images).

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