Lightning offense was hot. Then it was not. Is there a middle ground? | Commentary

TAMPA For a while there, the Lightning were scoring goals at an unbelievable clip.

And thats not meant as a figure of speech.

Somehow, the Lightning were scoring more goals than they had during the remarkable 2018-19 season, when they won 62 games.

They were scoring more goals than any team other than Florida in 2021-22 had scored in a full season in the last 30 years.

By late December, Tampa Bay was approaching the midway point of the season and averaging 4.0 goals per night.

Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel were both on pace for 40 goals.

Jake Guentzel was on pace for 50, and Brayden Point was steering toward 57.

It was like watching the NHL in the freewheeling days of the 1980s, when 40-goal scorers were everywhere.

In retrospect, it really was an unbelievable pace.

The Lightnings offense hit an inevitable lull just before the dawn of the new year.

While going 7-9-1 and coming close to falling out of the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, the Lightning have averaged 2.4 goals per night since Dec.

29.

You look at the first three months of the season, and scoring wasnt that difficult, coach Jon Cooper said.

We were probably scoring more than we should have.

And now, the month of January? I would say the travel, the schedule, we played like 14 games in 24 days in three different time zones with 10 [games] on the road.

I would say fatigue probably played a part in it.

But I did like the way we were playing.

We just, as I said earlier, we were probably scoring more than expected, and then we started scoring way below expected.

Even with the drastic 17-game dip, the Lightning are still third in the NHL in goals per game at 3.48.

The defense was mostly solid in January and the special teams are still among the leagues best.

The hardest part has been keeping the goal-scorers from getting too frustrated during the dry spell.

For sure, Cooper said.

Of the teams top six scorers Point, Guentzel, Kucherov, Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Nick Paul only Hagel does not have a negative plus/minus ratio in the previous 17 games entering Saturday.

And it took a plus-3 night from Hagel in a 3-0 win against the Kings on Thursday just to get even.

Weve just been playing the same way, Paul said.

We know its going to go in at some point, so weve just got to keep the pace.

It does not require a deep dive into Tampa Bays statistics to recognize, even when things were going well, that the Lightning have an issue with scoring depth.

The drop-off from the top two lines to the third and fourth lines has been stark, although somewhat expected when you consider the top-heavy nature of salaries devoted to Kucherov, Point, Guentzel, Hagel and Cirelli.

Still, it does raise the issue of how teams might go about defending Tampa Bay when the postseason begins in another two months.

Those players ...

are elite players and some of the best players in the world.

Thats why we love having them, general manager Julien BriseBois said.

The leagues kind of gone that way.

You look at a lot of the teams that are at the top of the standings this year, and even in the recent past, teams are becoming more and more top-heavy.

I think its also reflected in how players are used, in terms of minutes.

Every guy has got a role on our team.

Some of our players that play bottom-six minutes have really big roles on the penalty kill, help us keep the puck out of the net.

The beauty is those guys, the coaches feel like they can throw them out there and not have to worry about the matchup so much.

Maybe we wont score, but were probably not going to get scored on.

And it gives Kuch and Hagel and Point and Guentzel and Cirelli time to catch their breath.

Even with the downturn in scoring, the Lightning have still been generating an inordinate amount of scoring chances.

Based on the looks theyve had at opposing nets, advanced analytics suggest Tampa Bay should still have been averaging around 3.5 goals per game in January.

At some point, this just cant keep going on, Cooper said.

If you keep giving yourself chances, eventually theyre going to go in.

They didnt go in a ton [Thursday], but they went in enough.

Hopefully, that will help us, you know, being at home here now and maybe resting a bit more.

Up next ...

Lightning vs.

Senators When: 7, Tuesday, Amalie Arena TV: FanDuel Sports Network Sun.

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