How are Oilers' Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl trending ahead of the stretch run?

In the calendar year of 2024, the Edmonton Oilers rode the best players on the roster hard.

During the end of the 2023-24 regular season, the team was pushing for a playoff spot and then better seeding.

Every team runs the best talent with big minutes in the postseason, especially when healthy.

The club enjoyed good health from top players through the spring.

Advertisement This fall, the Oilers played centres Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl an average of 22 minutes per game from October through December.

It was a slight increase in usage compared to the same period in the previous season.

Thats a lot of hockey, which brings worry over fatigue and lower performance levels as the team chugs toward the postseason.

As it turns out, theres a built-in break for both McDavid and Draisaitl in January and February.

McDavid lost a week due to a three-game suspension , and Draisaitl (and most Oilers players) will get even more time off due to the upcoming 4 Nations Face-Off.

Time away from NHL games at this time of year benefits every player.

Its an extended All-Star break before the final rush to the trade deadline, end of regular season and playoffs.

But are McDavid and Draisaitl playing too much compared to other top-flight NHL centres? Comparables Including all games (both regular seasons, playoffs and 2024-25 preseason) in all game states (even strength and both special teams), McDavid played 108 games and averaged 22 minutes per game.

Draisaitl played more games (113) but averaged fewer minutes (21) per game.

In the same time frame, Jack Eichel of the Vegas Golden Knights played 73 games (missing games due to knee surgery, plus an early playoff exit) and averaged 21 minutes, while Aleksander Barkov of the Florida Panthers played 94 games and averaged 20 minutes.

He missed time in several months of 2024 due to various issues.

All four centres had a similar TOI average, but the Oilers duo were healthy and played in almost every game throughout the year.

An extra minute per game by McDavid isnt a massive difference if the performance doesnt suffer.

The Oilers tandem played more, had better health and were dynamite productive through to the final game of the NHL season in the spring.

Advertisement Its difficult to measure any benefit Eichel or Barkov may have enjoyed by staying away from the physically taxing game played in the NHL.

The benefits from such a break represent a truly unique opportunity for both McDavid and Draisaitl.

The fresher legs could have a positive impact on the postseason.

Is there a specific need for rest? Does either man need rest? Is McDavid (or Draisaitl) flagging in a specific area of the game? The most difficult minutes for any player come in five-on-five time.

Glancing at surface numbers, there may be some concern about the outscoring numbers for McDavid at five-on-five.

A deeper look reveals a brief downbeat, mostly associated with veteran winger Jeff Skinner .

Early in the season, McDavid and Skinner went 1-7 goals in 48 stunningly bad minutes together at five-on-five.

Taking Skinner away from McDavid, he has delivered a 55 percent goal share (59 percent expected) away from Draisaitl and a 69 percent goal percentage (66 percent expected) with Draisaitl.

McDavid is more than fine.

Hes the best player in the game.

Heres the five-on-five offence when McDavid and Draisaitl are away from each other: All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick This is where the Oilers are off the pace year over year.

McDavid solo is shy by more than a goal per 60 minutes, and Draisaitl (in the middle of a Hart Trophy-level season) is about half a goal per 60 behind 2023-24.

Kris Knoblauch is more focused on puck protection and cycling (possession) in the offensive zone.

The suppressed goals-for is an acceptable sacrifice if the outscoring merits.

If we exclude Skinner from both of the impact centres, we get an interesting year-over-year result: All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick These numbers are similar year over year, with the McDavid-Draisaitl duo flattening opponents at five-on-five this year.

Draisaitl solo is Hart-worthy, and the team is 50 percent with the impact centres off the ice.

McDavids line is off the pace year over year, but the gap isnt massive and theres no real evidence the captain is tired or nursing an injury.

If that was the case, surely the McDavid-Draisaitl numbers would also be down.

Advertisement McDavid linemates Perhaps the break will benefit veterans who are over 30, like Skinner and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins .

At five-on-five, Nugent-Hopkins scored 1.66 points per 60 one year ago with a goal share of 61 percent (64 percent expected) with the captain, and 49 percent solo (51 percent expected) without McDavid or Draisaitl.

On a line with the captain in 2023-24, his points per 60 (2.26) was pristine.

Thats a strong season from a quality veteran.

This season at five-on-five, Nugent-Hopkins is scoring 1.18 points per 60.

His goal share with McDavid this year (55 percent and 59 expected) is down, no doubt in part due to the lines fall-off in scoring.

Solo without the two big centres, Nugent-Hopkins is at 55 percent (51 expected) and once again holding his own.

The line doesnt score much but does hold opponents at bay.

The most concerning number is Nugent-Hopkins offensive output while playing with McDavid at five-on-five.

It has dipped to 1.37 points per 60, down almost a goal per 60 year over year.

Thats the big reason Knoblauch is shuffling McDavids linemates, and probably part of the reason McDavid-Draisaitl is seeing more action.

If Nugent-Hopkins cant cash more often when playing with the captain, the lineup shuffle might see him on the third line on a more permanent basis.

Bottom line Are McDavid and Draisaitl playing too much compared to other top-flight NHL centres? The answer is no.

Draisaitl looks like a strong candidate for the Hart Trophy this season and McDavid is delivering a mountain of offence as always.

Currently, Draisaitls 2.82 points per 60 at five-on-five is No.

5 in the NHL among forwards with enough ice time to qualify as regulars while McDavid (2.70 points per 60) is No.

7.

The most damning thing you can say about either player this season is that McDavid (at times, like on Thursday night) appears to lack that extra gear in some games.

That could be the rigours of a long season, or a minor injury gone unreported, but he remains a searing talent in the worlds best hockey league.

Advertisement As is always the case, players who are past 30 (Nugent-Hopkins turns 32 in April) are less likely to repeat previous levels of performance.

Skinner (33 in May) is provably not a player Knoblauch trusts (although the ghastly early-season performance may not repeat if hes given an opportunity with the captain again).

Viktor Arvidsson and Connor Brown , also past 30, missed some great chances against the Detroit Red Wings on Thursday night (Skinner made a stunning stealth theft on a back check the coaching staff must have been thrilled by), and all 30-plus forwards on the roster could deliver more offence.

The break will be good for the Oilers, but its the older veterans who will benefit most.

Prime players McDavid and Draisaitl remain at the peak of their powers.

(Photo of Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid: Rich Gagnon / Getty Images).

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