What we learned about the NHL in January: Impact of the Mikko Rantanen trade and more

There is always a lot to analyze around an NHL trade the cost of acquisition on both sides of the deal, the fit and the ripples throughout the trade market.

But maybe one of the most interesting elements to consider is the timing of a deal, especially for in-season trades.

The timing of a trade can affect the cost in some cases.

A middle-six center can be worth one thing in late January and a lot more in early March, depending on how other teams set the market and the demand for that position around the league.

When elite talent is involved, though, the bar starts high and stays high no matter the timing.

Trading for Mikko Rantanen in late January versus the deadline likely wouldnt have drastically changed the cost unless there was a dramatic market shift over the next few weeks or an outright bidding war.

And by making this deal weeks out from the deadline, Carolina gets more bang for its buck up to 14 extra games of action with Rantanen (and Taylor Hall ) in the fold.

Advertisement Not only does this make the deal more cost-effective, it also gives everyone a chance to assess the situation before the rapidly approaching deadline.

Players have more time to adjust and gel in their surroundings, which can help the decision-making process on both sides of the equation.

In Rantanens case, he has more time to decide whether or not he likes playing with the Hurricanes.

Management has an opportunity to evaluate the team with Rantanen and Hall in the fold, which should help shape the teams direction in the weeks leading up to March 7.

The same goes for the Avalanche , who brought in Martin Necas and Jack Drury and now have a bit more cap space to work with before the deadline.

The advantages of that timing need to be front of mind for the rest of the league, especially in the days leading up to the 4 Nations Face-Off break.

Special teams impact of Colorados additions Despite rolling out a top unit of Nathan MacKinnon , Cale Makar and Rantanen this season, the Avalanches power-play attack has been far from lethal.

From the season start to Dec.

31, Colorados expected goal generation of 8.31 per 60 was just below league average, but its scoring rate (9.01 goals per 60) brought the team up to ninth place.

That production dried up in January, with Colorado falling to 28th in expected goal generation (6.71 per 60) and second-to-last in scoring with just 2.77 goals per 60 in its 11 games before the trade.

Rantanen was far from the problem in Colorado, but adding Necas should infuse a new element into an area of play that needs it.

There is only so much to draw from three games and less than 11 minutes of power-play time, but the early returns are positive for Necas on the advantage.

Just take their 2:22 minutes of power-play time against the Rangers last Sunday.

Necas earned a secondary assist on Makars power-play goal in the first.

Then, on the Avalanches second opportunity of the game, the Rangers managed one early clear.

After that, Colorados top unit pinned them in their own zone for the remaining 1:27 of the advantage.

Necas helped cycle the puck in the zone, set up his new teammates and generated two dangerous chances that hit the post.

If thats a sign of whats to come, it could breathe some life into a unit that surprisingly struggled through much of January.

On the other end of the ice, Drury could add some support to a short-handed unit that needs it.

Colorados penalty kill also trended down in January to allow the fourth-highest rate of expected goals against, at 10.9 per 60.

Those short-handed lapses havent always been as glaring because goaltending has held a lot off the scoresheet.

Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood have saved a league-high 5.4 goals above expected in January while short-handed.

Advertisement Drury wasnt a leading penalty killer with the Hurricanes, but he still played about 26 percent of the available short-handed time before the trade.

And that should help fill a void left by Valeri Nichushkin s absence, and even last years trade deadline addition Yakov Trenin , who departed as a free agent.

Rantanen and Halls influence on the middle of the ice The Corsi Canes have stayed true to their name, with the most shot volume at five-on-five and the highest expected goal rate.

But one area of the ice could use more emphasis: the middle.

The heat map below visualizes that, with the Hurricanes heaviest areas of offensive creation pictured in red.

Via HockeyViz Adding both Rantanen and Hall should help change that.

One of Rantanens biggest strengths is generating scoring chances.

Hes a dynamic winger who can win puck battles and drive his shots right to the middle of the ice at five-on-five.

Rantanens scoring ability draws defenders in, which can open up his teammates for a high-danger pass.

That was already on display in Rantanens first two games with his new team.

The Canes had a 16-10 shot attempt advantage and a 79 percent expected goal rate in his minutes against the Islanders last Saturday.

The numbers werent as tilted against the Rangers, but the winger still affected the scoresheet.

Its only been a few games, so the question is how well he will fit there in the long run, especially without Nathan MacKinnon.

Rantanen hasnt always had to be the play driver on his line, and he isnt much of a puck transporter at five-on-five.

He never had to be, with a zone-entry machine at his side.

And one of the Canes best carriers, Necas, went the other way in this deal.

So the complexion of Carolinas offense will change, and so will Rantanens approach because as good as Sebastian Aho is in transition, he isnt in the same stratosphere as MacKinnon.

But if the early returns are a glimpse of what is to come, Rantanen should help his new team kick their offense up a level.

Hall should also help, just in a different capacity in the middle six.

His five-on-five scoring rate plummeted in Chicago over the last year, but it wasnt for a lack of trying.

Hall ranked highly not just relative to the Blackhawks but across the league in controlled entries and primary shot assists this year, according to All Three Zones .

Against the Rangers on Tuesday night, his puck movement shined with setups to Andrei Svechnikov and Eric Robinson .

With Svechnikov in particular, this is something to watch.

His shot volume and quality are up this year at five-on-five, but he has struggled to convert on those chances.

Maybe Halls passing can help change that, giving the Hurricanes more reliable goal scoring from the middle.

Thompson earns himself an extension in Washington Despite Charlie Lindgren s emergence as the Capitals starter down the stretch last season, management still looked for reinforcements in the offseason.

And now Logan Thompson is shaping up to be one of their most savvy deals of 2024.

Advertisement While the workload distribution has been perfectly even through most of the season, with the two rotating every other game, Thompson has shined the most.

Through his first 21 games, he saved 16.5 goals above expected and earned a 0.919 save percentage.

But his most impressive stretch of the season came after that when Thompson took a true starting role while Lindgren was injured.

He gave the Capitals a chance to win with quality starts in all five of his consecutive starts and saved 11 goals above expected along the way.

The Capitals have since returned to their even split in net now that Lindgren is back, but that stretch of play was encouraging for when (or if) this team needs Thompson to take over the starters net.

Based on past precedent for teams with a shared crease, that could be the plan for the playoffs.

Thompsons first half in Washington (plus his time in Vegas) was enough for Washington to bet on him for another six years at $5.85 million a year on average.

Since he doesnt have an extensive track record as a true starting goalie, or even a 1A, there is some risk associated with the signing.

However, it aligns with the goalie market reset earlier this year after some key signings, such as Jeremy Swayman in Boston and Joey Daccord in Seattle.

Extreme special teams in Vegas The Golden Knights power play has truly become an advantage.

Vegas came into the season hot on the power play before slowing down in mid-November and December.

But the team got back on track in January.

The Golden Knights have notched at least one power-play goal in 10 of their last 12 games before Thursdays tilt against the Blue Jackets .

Most of that success comes from a top unit led by Jack Eichel , Mark Stone , Tomas Hertl and Shea Theodore .

Pavel Dorofeyev rounds out that group as a shooting presence on the wing.

Heading into Thursday night, the team converted on 28.3 percent of its opportunities through 50 games, which landed them third in the league behind the Devils and Jets .

And their play below the surface backs that up.

The team does a lot of damage from the high-danger areas in the net-front area, up the middle of the ice and from the circles.

That adds up to about 10.1 expected goals per 60, which ranks behind only the Devils.

Vegas scoring efficiency and expected goal creation this season are the best of its eight-year existence.

But not all special teams are an advantage for Vegas.

Surprisingly, its penalty kill has been somewhat of a weakness.

In January, the team slipped into the bottom 10 in expected and actual goal suppression even while matching up to lesser teams like the Sharks and Blackhawks.

The Golden Knights went six-for-six while short-handed against the Stars and Panthers earlier this week, which is at least a step in the right direction after some concerning trends throughout the month.

The Panthers declining rush game Once upon a time, the Panthers were one of the best rush-based teams in the league.

In 2021-22, that was Floridas signature style.

The big question then was whether that style would be crushed in a playoff environment or if the Panthers needed more diversity in their attack.

Advertisement Paul Maurice was hired in the 2022 offseason, and the rest is history.

The Panthers built up a strong, grinding forecheck that has worn down opponents, helping them win their first Stanley Cup last June.

The team is elite at recovering dump-ins, wearing down its opponent along the boards, cycling the puck in the offensive zone and generating second-chance opportunities.

But even as the Panthers evolved into more of a forechecking force, they still had some balance in their attack thanks to their play off the rush.

Its just faded over the last couple of seasons and thats especially obvious this year.

Via All Three Zones The Panthers change in strategy is evident on a team-wide and individual basis through tracking from All Three Zones.

One of the biggest downticks is from Carter Verhaeghe , who tends to be one of the more reliable threats in transition around the league.

He has only generated 5.67 shots per 60 off the rush this year, compared to last years 10.7.

Evan Rodrigues and Matthew Tkachuk have also taken noticeable steps back, along with Sam Bennett .

That may be a contributing factor behind the dips in each of their five-on-five scoring rates from last year.

Howling for Wolf in the Calder Trophy race High-scoring first-year players tend to draw more attention in the rookie race.

Macklin Celebrini , Lane Hutson and Matvei Michkov are bound to earn many votes this spring.

But Dustin Wolf is also making a strong case to finish in the top three.

Similar to the Hart Trophy race, the challenge of the Calder is measuring players of each position against each other.

Comparing forwards and defensemen is challenging enough, but a goaltender? Thats all the more complicated.

With Wolf, its easier to measure him up against the top goalies in the league.

And so far this season, he stacks up to some of the leagues best.

Heading into Thursday night, Wolf ranked sixth in the league with 18.7 goals saved above expected, behind only Daccord, Lukas Dostal , Igor Shesterkin , Thompson and Connor Hellebuyck .

With 20 quality starts in 28 appearances, he has given the Flames a chance to win most nights, which is a major reason why Calgary is in the playoff picture.

That seems more than worthy of top honors as a rookie of the year.

Advertisement January Stars Leon Draisaitl is doing everything and more this season in Edmonton.

He is scoring goals at a career-high rate to lead the league, driving the Oilers second line, winning puck battles to generate dangerous chances and has been a shutdown presence defensively.

Draisaitl shined in a star-studded matchup against the Avalanche in January and stepped up against the Capitals and Canucks while Connor McDavid was suspended.

All together this month, he scored nine goals and 20 points in 14 games while earning a 62 percent expected goal rate.

Speaking of team MVPs, there is Dylan Larkin .

His impact is felt all over the ice.

The Red Wings count on him to retrieve pucks and transition the puck up the ice.

In the offensive zone, he is a skilled playmaker and a clutch goal-scorer.

That scoring has helped the Red Wings earn pivotal points in a tight playoff race.

Just take his performance against Montreal , when he scored two points and outright dominated his five-on-five minutes to earn a season-high 4.15 Game Score against a team competing for the same playoff seed.

He capped off January with a strong game against Edmonton, where he scored the tying goal and the game-winner in the shootout.

Filip Forsberg made a strong case for the third star.

So did Thompson, Wolf, Darcy Kuemper and Spencer Knight , who put up sparkling numbers over the last month.

But Barzal, who has helped fuel the Islanders 9-3 record in January, earned the honors.

Barzals 11 points over his last 12 games may not stack up to the rest of the league, thanks to the Islanders putrid power play.

But he is excelling at five-on-five.

Barzal is one of the best in the league at creating scoring chances in transition, which has helped the Islanders control play with a 58 percent expected goal rate in January and a 16-3 scoring edge with their star forward on the ice.

Data via Evolving-Hockey , HockeyViz , HockeyStatCards , All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick .

This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.

(Photo of Mikko Rantanen: Brad Penner / Imagn Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.