Why Thunder, Rockets and Grizzlies are in enviable positions at NBA trade deadline

With over half of the 2024-25 regular season complete and the Feb.

6 trade deadline inching closer, the NBA and the Western Conference in particular has separated itself into tiers.

At the top, the Oklahoma City Thunder (37-9) reign supreme and have their eyes set on playing well into June.

But for as much success as the Thunder have achieved, theres no clear path out of the West to an NBA Finals, not if the Houston Rockets (32-15) and Memphis Grizzlies (32-16) have anything to say about it.

Advertisement Whats more, the top three teams in the West are still young squads with large asset pools from which to make their next move, whenever that may be.

Meanwhile, older, chips-in teams are eating their dust.

Its perhaps a bit of a lesson, too, that the Thunder, Rockets and Grizzlies should be a little careful before firing draft picks into the sun to bring in expensive players.

The talent fit has to be right.

But when is the right time to starting pushing in those chips? Do Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Oklahoma City need an additional ballhandler and creator? Can Houston survive a playoff round or two without the requisite shooting? How can Memphis consolidate its depth to bring in a legitimate upgrade on the perimeter if the Grizzlies even need it? And most importantly, how have these three teams managed to separate themselves in a conference thats always jam-packed? NBA writer Kelly Iko and senior NBA analyst for former front-office executive John Hollinger answer those questions and more.

Iko: Over the next week or so, as NBA front offices increase their communication, the question of standing pat versus making a roster move will arise.

Several teams in the upper echelon of the West the Thunder, Rockets and Grizzlies are debating whether to push all their chips in.

John, youve been in positions where this question was at the forefront for you.

A team like the Thunder seemingly has been leading the pack from day one and looks destined for an NBA Finals run, barring additional injuries.

If youre in Oklahoma Citys front office, are you working the phones for a tertiary creator outside of Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams? Or do you view Chet Holmgrens return (around the All-Star break) as the best in-season acquisition possible? Whats the benefit of keeping their roster untouched? Advertisement John Hollinger: I think the Thunder will have the lessons from last year at the front of mind.

First, the series against the Dallas Mavericks showed them their needs were slightly different from what they thought, and that secondary creators and passers were more important than finding a Charles Oakley-type masher on the glass.

Second, however, they learned from the Gordon Hayward experience that they dont want to mess up what they already have by trying to bring in a big name unless its somebody who can surpass Williams and Holmgren as potential second options.

The other thing with Oklahoma City is that it is still finding out what it has in its own guys.

Williams and Holmgren are only in their third seasons, and the rest of the core is very young as well.

Because of that, its a bit harder for the Thunder to definitively say Were good at X and need Y than it is for most elite teams, where the players are older and the roles and style are more established.

Between that and the relative paucity of available star-caliber talent that fits, Im not sure if theres an obvious move here.

Cam Johnson, maybe? Oklahoma City has enough future draft-pick assets to chase whatever player it wants, but if the equation were that simple, the Phoenix Suns would be dominating the league.

Iko: Do the Grizzlies and Rockets have any similar luxuries? I look at Memphis deep roster (GG Jackson II recently returned), and on one hand, youre comfortable with heading into the postseason as is.

But then you look at games like Mondays blowout defeat to the New York Knicks and cant help but wonder if more perimeter juice is needed, especially if a deep playoff run entails meeting similar-level competition.

Desmond Bane hasnt looked the same all season, Jaylen Wells isnt exactly that type of player and the Luke Kennards of the world have a clear ceiling on their offensive impact.

In the other corner, Houston is riding momentum, having beaten the Easts top two seeds over the past week, but Amen Thompson hype aside , this isnt a great shooting team, and the Rockets still struggle in the half court.

The Rockets dont seem to be interested in blowing things up to chase the likes of Jimmy Butler or DeAaron Fox but should they? And does their ever-improving record change that calculus? Jabari Smith Jr.

is getting closer to a return, but does that even count as an addition? Hollinger: Memphis has a lot of that same still-figuring-out-who-we-are vibe the Grizzlies start two rookies! plus Marcus Smart has hardly played.

However, the Grizzlies have seen their half-court offense exposed in the playoffs twice before, and they have to be cognizant that their shooting and shot-creation might not pass muster this time around either.

Again, Cam Johnson becomes a tasty morsel in theory, but the Grizzlies already have two power forwards playing fantastic basketball.

Can Johnson play some small forward? Can Jaren Jackson Jr.

close at center every night? If not, Johnson might be an expensive, clunky fit.

Advertisement As for Houston, Im slightly more surprised the Rockets arent pursuing Fox given the Rockets shot-creation woes in the half court and the fact hed offer a potential solution for the teams biggest problem.

Fred VanVleet is an obvious salary match, too, and thus adding Fox wouldnt get in the way of potentially paying the likes of Thompson and Smith once their rookie deals expire.

I have to presume theyre either concerned about Foxs signability in 2026 or think Thompson might eventually play point guard.

Again, thats where finding out about your own team is important before you start trying to pay for outside players.

Iko: Finding about your own team speaks to development, right? And that in turn goes together with drafting, which is related to tanking.

I find it fascinating how each of these teams got to this point.

The Thunder pulled the trigger on a young Gilgeous-Alexander and scouted smartly over the years with Williams and Cason Wallace (I dont view taking Holmgren at No.

2 as savvy), all while making shrewd offseason moves like signing Isaiah Joe and Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency.

Wells, GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr.

highlight a strong Grizzlies scouting department (Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.

were top-five picks, I dont count those), and the Rockets strategic tanking is well-documented.

Zooming out a bit, theres a bigger conversation about the dos and donts of organizational building.

Theres never a one-size-fits-all approach, but how have you viewed how these three teams have separated themselves from the rest of the pack in the West? And in hindsight, are there things you would have done differently in each instance that other teams could adopt down the line? GO DEEPER NBA trade deadline: What every team should do before the buzzer sounds Hollinger: The first rule is that, if you trade a star too early rather than too late, you can get so much in return that it becomes rocket fuel for the rebuild.

Once the Thunder had run their course with Paul George and Russell Westbrook, they had a mid-tier playoff team that was light on assets and deep in the tax.

Flipping that in the George trade to get Gilgeous-Alexander and the pick that became Williams, and ending up with a team bad enough to get Holmgren in the lottery ...

I mean, that was 90 percent of the job, right? Kudos for finding guys at the margins like Joe, Aaron Wiggins and Ajay Mitchell, but how you dismantle the last empire often dictates how well you can do with the next one.

But the other key piece of this is that all three teams have rebuilt from within, as opposed to relying on trades and free agency.

Even though theyve added pieces in free agency VanVleet and Hartenstein, for instance these were to complement the existing core pieces.

Houston is where it is first and foremost because it drafted Sengun, Thompson, Jalen Green and Smith, right? Same for Memphis with Morant, Jaren Jackson and Bane, and the Thunder with Williams, Holmgren, Wiggins and Wallace.

Even Gilgeous-Alexander was almost like a draft pick, as hed only played one season when the Thunder acquired him.

Im not saying thats a golden rule the Boston Celtics traded brilliantly to build their champions but it does serve as something of a cautionary tale.

In todays NBA, when virtually every good player extends his contract at least once (if not twice) with his existing team, the way to get stars is by drafting them.

I think thats why none of these teams have been itching to do splashy, all-in type trades for big-name stars.

Fewer difference-making players are becoming available, and when it happens, theyre later in their careers.

Advertisement Iko: Given where all three of these teams are currently, how do you forecast the next two to three seasons? Have they built sustainable models that can withstand the rest of the West? And, perhaps more importantly, do any of these teams have enough to go all the way? I only say this because perception is everything, and from the outside looking in, the Grizzlies and Rockets are having great seasons (you could argue Houston is ahead of schedule), but most folks arent putting either in the NBA Finals, at least not this season.

But the Thunder are almost expected to emerge from the West, and given Gilgeous-Alexanders age, should be in the mix for years to come.

Lastly, which team outside this core three is best positioned to join and why? Hollinger: I agree with you that the Thunder are the ones best positioned for a half decade of title contention.

They have the best centerpiece player in Gilgeous-Alexander, they have the biggest treasure chest of assets and draft picks, and they still have another year with Holmgren and Williams on their rookie deals, which makes the rest of the cap puzzle so much easier.

Memphis and Houston both still have some proving to do when it comes to the postseason especially.

Depth and defense have been a big part of the formula for each, but they lack the singular offensive star who can win playoff games by himself, and for each, the overall half-court offense and shooting is also suspect.

When the games slow down in the postseason, that could end up being a critical problem.

Thats why the team outside this core thats best positioned is Dallas.

The Mavericks have already shown it when they beat the Thunder (and Minnesota Timberwolves and LA Clippers) a year ago.

The Mavs have a young superstar to run the show when things slow down, frontcourt players who can finish what Luka Doncic starts and a complementary second star in Kyrie Irving.

They havent been at full strength this year and could end up with a tough playoff draw, but if I were one of the top three teams in the West, theyd scare me even more than the Denver Nuggets if I saw them in my playoff bracket.

(Top photo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort: Joshua Gateley / Getty Images).

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