Phillies farm system heat check: What's the immediate and future outlook?

When the Phillies open camp next week in Clearwater, Fla., they will do it with an established roster with few immediate openings.

The six weeks of spring training are a chance, then, to see some younger players who might not factor into the 2025 plans but are important to the overall health of an organization that boasts the third-largest payroll in Major League Baseball.

Advertisement The spring is always a fine time to dream on prospects.

The Athletics Keith Law released his farm system rankings last week and his top 20 Phillies prospects on Thursday.

We examine the state of the Phillies farm system below.

Keith Laws farm system ranking: 11th The Phillies have been protective of their top-end prospects, Andrew Painter and Aidan Miller, because they believe the current core that has led them to three straight postseason berths needs an infusion of younger talent.

The farm system is aligned to provide that so long as Painter, Miller and maybe even Justin Crawford are difference-makers.

That is a sizable amount of pressure on those prospects, but they do not have to be immediate stars.

They just need to be useful contributors in 2025 and 2026.

Its apparent the front office is trying to thread a needle during the three-year window ahead, which coincides with Zack Wheelers $126 million contract extension.

Most of the Phillies better prospects are concentrated in the low minors (like any organization).

In recent seasons, they have drafted a specific type: higher-ceiling but riskier hitters.

The coming years will determine whether the Phillies have created a stronger pipeline to the majors.

They are going to need it as the big-league roster ages.

This is a top-heavy system, from Painter to Miller to Justin Crawford, who has generated a wide range of evaluations, on down.

There is a steep drop in quality after the first four or five prospects.

The system will look better in a year if Dante Nori or Griffin Burkholder, the Phillies first two picks in the 2024 amateur draft, has a breakout season.

Aroon Escobar is a 20-year-old infielder who numerous teams asked for at last summers trade deadline.

Hes someone who is years away but with potential.

The Phillies have invested far more draft capital in recent years on hitters; theyve yet to prove they can develop the ones who dont come from college.

Two years ago, the club had three consensus top-100 pitchers Painter, Mick Abel and Griff McGarry.

Only Painter remains on that track.

Advertisement One of the bigger developments over the winter was a reorganization of the farm systems leaders.

Preston Mattingly, hired after the 2021 season to revamp a wayward minor-league group, was promoted to general manager .

Mattingly will still wield a large influence on the farm system, albeit from a higher altitude.

Luke Murton, previously the clubs director of minor-league hitting, is now in charge of the farm system.

The Phillies hired Casey Weathers, a Driveline Baseball disciple who had been coaching in the Cincinnati Reds farm system, as their new director of pitching development.

Edwar Gonzalez was promoted to run the hitting program.

GO DEEPER Phillies spring training preview: Thoughts on every hitter headed to camp Top-100 prospects No.

12 Andrew Painter, RHP No.

13 Aidan Miller, SS No.

41 Justin Crawford, OF Prospect most likely to impact the 2025 team The Phillies are managing expectations in a far different way this spring compared to two springs ago, when they left the door ajar for a 19-year-old Painter to win a rotation spot in camp.

Painter, of course, suffered a ligament injury to his right elbow that cost him two seasons.

This time, the club has established a July-ish timeline for Painters arrival to the majors.

There are certain assumptions required.

For one, Painter has to prove he is big-league-ready at some point.

He will not pitch in Grapefruit League games and wont begin the minor-league season at an affiliate.

This is all to manage his innings in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery.

While preserving as many innings for the majors as possible is the priority, Painter is not a finished product.

The Phillies have a set, five-man rotation along with some decent depth in Joe Ross.

There are prospects with more experience than Painter who will fill the Triple-A rotation.

So, there will be a certain bar Painter must clear before the Phillies promote him.

Chances are, hell force his way into that conversation whether it is because the Phillies have suffered some injuries or Painter is just that good.

GO DEEPER Phillies spring training preview: Thoughts on every pitcher headed to camp Projected 2027 Opening Day roster Just as a thought exercise, lets look two years into the Phillies future.

C External Addition 1B Bryce Harper 2B Bryson Stott SS Aidan Miller 3B External Addition LF Brandon Marsh CF Justin Crawford RF Trea Turner DH Kyle Schwarber SP1 Zack Wheeler SP2 Andrew Painter SP3 Cristopher Sanchez SP4 Aaron Nola SP5 Moises Chace Advertisement CL Orion Kerkering External Addition is carrying a lot of weight here, but the Phillies figure to remain aggressive in free agency while filling some corners of the roster with prospects.

Eduardo Tait, a well-regarded catching prospect, does not turn 19 until August.

Whether hes able to stick behind the plate remains a question.

So it is reasonable to be conservative about his 2027 readiness for the purposes of this exercise.

Absent Tait, no one in the organization projects as a big-league-ready starting catcher.

The configuration of this hypothetical 2027 roster depends on Turners positional future, which will become the subject of greater debate over the coming years.

Maybe he sticks at shortstop and Miller slides over to third.

Maybe there is a better outfield fit for Turner than right field.

Maybe there is a new rover position in Major League Baseball by 2027.

This exercise assumes the Phillies re-sign Schwarber, who is slated to become a free agent following the 2025 season.

The rotation arrangement is semantics; maybe Wheeler isnt a No.

1-type starter by 2027 and Painter has assumed that label.

Sanchez and Nola could be interchangeable.

Chace, 21, has a chance to reach the majors in 2025 as a reliever but his long-term outlook is as a starter.

(Photo of Andrew Painter: Norm Hall / MLB Photos via Getty Images).

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