What the skyrocketing cap means for the Jets, Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk and more

Kevin Cheveldayoffs hockey team has more points than anyone in the NHL.

Thats the good news.

Sort through the team standings on PuckPedia and youll find only 11 teams that project to finish the season with more cap space than Winnipeg will.

Of those 11 teams, only two hold a playoff spot, but Calgary and Columbus are wild card teams.

Winnipeg is a near-lock to make the playoffs and a legitimate Stanley Cup contender; the Jets blend of quality and opportunity is unique among the NHLs 32 teams.

Advertisement The Jets didnt arrive at this intersection of quality and opportunity by accident, nor did they get here by focusing on the step in front of them.

There is a long-term approach that works in concert with day-to-day management.

When Winnipeg sent Brad Lambert and Parker Ford to the AHL Moose for 24 hours this week, the $9,500 cap savings were made with the trade deadline in mind.

But Winnipegs trade deadline is only a small part of how Cheveldayoff will navigate an enormous change in NHL economics.

The salary cap is about to skyrocket from $88 million right now to $95.5 million next season, then $104 million in 2026-27 and $113.5 million in 2027-28.

Those numbers are essentially fixed , according to The Athletic s Chris Johnston, although the sides can agree to make minor adjustments up or down if circumstances warrant.

This would be a big deal for any team with players like Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk, Alex Iafallo, Mason Appleton, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Haydn Fleury eligible for unrestricted free agency.

Winnipeg has those contracts to sort out, along with Gabriel Vilardi and Dylan Samberg headed for big raises as restricted free agents.

The rising cap means rising free agent prices: The Jets probably wont retain all of their unrestricted free agents.

They should still be able to chart a course to a quality, cap-compliant team, but most Jets free agents are outperforming their initial contract projections .

This summers decisions will be high stakes.

None of this is a surprise to Cheveldayoff.

Its something he, his cap guru Larry Simmons, and the rest of Jets management have been planning for .

But theres one more factor at play here that of the falling Canadian dollar.

In 2013, when the current CBA was first negotiated, the Canadian and U.S.

dollars held approximately equal value.

The Canadian dollar was worth 0.70 USD on Feb.

4, meaning that teams who collect their revenue in Canadian dollars and pay their players in American dollars are taking a 30 percent hit that didnt exist when the NHLs revenue sharing model was designed.

Jets attendance is up to 92.9 percent this season but play in the smallest building in the league; in terms of raw attendance, Winnipeg plays to the third smallest crowds in the NHL.

It is clear that the Jets would benefit from a more robust revenue-sharing system in the next CBA, but that wont come into effect until the 2026-27 season.

Advertisement How will the skyrocketing cap change the way Winnipeg does business? Thats a big question, with significant variables that have yet to be determined.

Heres what we know for now.

The 2025 trade deadline: The rising value of contracts with term Winnipeg wasnt surprised by the rising salary cap, nor do its biggest strengths Cheveldayoffs trades, a lack of albatross contracts, and successful development of homegrown cornerstones like Connor Hellebuyck, Josh Morrissey, and Mark Scheifele change because the cap is going up.

The Jets core is largely signed, with Ehlers contract (or his departure) due this summer and Kyle Connor a big priority after that.

The Jets weaknesses are also clear.

Winnipeg shows up on a majority of no-trade clauses in a league that gives up a disproportionate amount of trade protection compared to the NFL, NBA, and MLB.

That tends to be a challenge on July 1 and on the trade market; some players only impression of Winnipeg is the stretch of road from the airport to the rink and the downtown hotel they stay in.

GO DEEPER NHL player poll: Best/worst facilities? NBA-style tournament? Season too long? Should Bettman retire? The rising salary cap doesnt change the NHLs no-trade clause landscape.

Instead, it ratchets up a familiar pressure on Cheveldayoff as he does his business.

Winnipegs short- and long-term success will be defined by his ability to acquire players with term left on their contracts.

Some players do waive their no-trade clauses to come to Winnipeg.

Paul Stastny did for his spectacular 2018 run, with his friend Blake Wheeler making part of the pitch and the Jets status as a Cup contender doing the rest.

Think of Cheveldayoffs highlight reel.

In 2023, he acquired Nino Niederreiter and Namestnikov at the deadline and eventually extended them before acquiring Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, and Rasmus Kupari for PL Dubois that summer.

Before that, pending UFA Andrew Copp was moved in a down year to acquire Morgan Barron and the draft picks which became Elias Salomonsson and Thomas Milic.

Retention is a baked-in component of Cheveldayoffs best moves.

Advertisement In an immediate sense, Ryan OReilly should be worth more to Winnipeg than Brock Nelson because of the extra year left on his $4.5 million contract.

The same applies to defencemen like Rasmus Ristolainen and Connor Murphy , whose contracts look closer to ideal as free agent prices rise in concert with the cap.

It would apply to Jamie Oleksiak, the declining best-case version of Logan Stanley, or to OReilly, Scott Laughton, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who we discussed in our forward targets piece .

Acquisition costs will reflect that.

But the Jets have found that players who make it to Winnipeg and then stay a little while often buy-in to the city and its community.

Hellebuyck, Morrissey, and Scheifele chose Winnipeg.

Connor, Ehlers, Pionk, and Dylan DeMelo have all signed long-term extensions in Winnipeg at various points in their careers.

Cole Perfetti would have been willing to do the same last summer.

The opportunity to win is a big part of that but, for some players, the way Winnipegs community grows on a person has played a role.

The Jets have a group of ice-fishers who head for the shack when off days allow, making the cold a weakness for most a unique strength for the Jets.

It is obvious that not every player will value outdoor activity the same way that Hellebuyck does.

Each player comes with their own preferences and may have their reasons to value playing in other places, like PL Dubois or Jacob Trouba did.

The importance of fit goes well beyond vibes in an ice-fishing shack.

The salary cap is going up a little over eight percent per year for at least three straight years.

This makes every contract with term beyond this summer at least an eight percent savings compared to the open market.

(That estimate assumes an otherwise equal UFA playing field.

We know Winnipeg is at a disadvantage with free agents, adding to the importance.) Cheveldayoff has a harder job than some of his rivals do.

He does have a wealthy ownership group backing him one that has spent to the cap maximum in search of consistent playoff opportunities.

How will the rising cap affect Winnipegs offseason? The 2025 offseason: Salary and cap hit are not the same thing A players cap hit is based on the average annual value of their total contract, but the amount of money they get paid each season can vary.

Scheifele and Hellebuyck carry an $8.5 million cap hit each, for example, but theyre making $10 million in salary this season.

Theyre not the only players who make more money than their cap hit right now: Winnipegs player payroll is approximately $5 million higher than the teams cap hit.

Next season, that figure drops to approximately $2 million.

If the Jets are concerned with limiting their expenditures prior to the 2026 CBA, theyre in a decent place to do so.

They also have a lot of work to do to build out their team.

This Jets roster comes without any of its UFAs and has $39.5 million in cap space before signing its RFAs.

Ehlers absence hurts the forward group and Scheifele and Adam Lowry need help down the middle.

Ive picked Salomonsson, Nikita Chibrikov, Parker Ford, Brad Lambert, and Jaret Anderson-Dolan to become full-time NHL players.

Their odds of vindicating this choice obviously changes if Ehlers, Appleton, Namestnikov, or Winnipegs other free agents stand in their way.

Meanwhile, I havent made any trades or changed Winnipegs depth chart, so feel free to continue the Logan Stanley vs.

Ville Heinola debate as you see fit.

Advertisement The forwards depend on big leaps from Rasmus Kupari, Perfetti, and Lambert.

The defence needs help on the right side, unless Sambergs development is so pronounced that Winnipeg is comfortable with Colin Miller (or Salomonsson) in that spot.

If you assign $7.5 million to Vilardi, $4.5 million to Samberg, $1.5 million to each of Kupari and Barron, and $1 million to Ford, this Jets team has $23.5 million to commit to unrestricted free agents.

This seems to leave room for most but not all of Ehlers, Pionk, Appleton, Iafallo, Namestnikov, and Fleury.

That number obviously goes down if Winnipeg is able to acquire players with term at this years trade deadline.

Not to overstate my blue-sky suggestion of OReilly, but his $4.5 million looks all the more valuable now with Appleton projected to make $3.7 million next season , doesnt it? The 2026 offseason: More robust revenue sharing would help By the summer of 2026, parameters for the next CBA set to take effect to start the 2026-27 season should be more clear.

Expect the Jets to be advocates for a more robust revenue-sharing system.

A rising tide is meant to flow all boats and playing to 92 percent capacity crowds should mean a sustainable business.

Winnipegs ownership group is wealthy, its seen its franchise value rise dramatically since purchase, and it would still benefit from better protection against the currency discrepancy.

Winnipeg will also have a massive contract to add to the following roster.

Connors absence looms large here.

Lowrys does too, highlighting the challenges facing Winnipegs long-term outlook at centre.

The Jets will work to retain them both, while ideally having signed its 2025 RFAs like Vilardi and Samberg to long-term extensions.

Ive also made some more promotion decisions Brayden Yager and omissions (Colby Barlow) even though its too soon to be sure.

There are new RFAs to sign now Perfetti, Chibrikov, Heinola, assuming that none are traded in the meantime although Perfetti is the only one likely to receive a big raise.

Nate Schmidts buyout is over, clearing up more space under the $104 million cap ceiling.

Advertisement The Jets 2026 outlook involves a ton of cap space and a ton of uncertainty.

Connors contract could be the first to surpass Hellebuyck and Scheifele, perhaps rising over $10 million.

More robust revenue sharing and/or a stronger Canadian dollar would help encourage spending, while the importance of acquiring players with term by trade is made ever more clear.

These Jets might be as competitive as they are today if Salomonsson, Perfetti, Lambert, Yager, Kupari, and others all develop by leaps and bounds and if Ehlers can be convinced to stay but thats an enormous, optimistic bet.

A more reasonable conclusion is that Cheveldayoff and his management team are already thinking about their 2026-27 roster here and now.

It seems clear that they need to be, lest this seasons success be an outlier for what looks like a well-managed club.

(Top photo of Nikolaj Ehlers: Terrence Lee / Imagn Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.