NFL playoffs: Key Bills-Chiefs matchups to watch in AFC Championship Game

NFL defenses decided in 2021 that if Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen could stay patient and consistently beat them underneath, they could live with it.

From that point, the defensive meta changed.

Teams started trying to limit explosive passes and for a time it worked.

Mahomes and Allen responded by becoming ruthlessly efficient quarterbacks.

Advertisement The two quarterbacks will face off in the postseason for the fifth time when the Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game at 6:30 p.m.

ET Sunday.

This matchup isnt just about the quarterbacks, their respective franchises have done great jobs of building teams that counter how defenses have tried to slow down their gunslingers.

How will each defensive coordinator game plan around stopping the opposing teams auxiliary parts and then worry about Allens and Mahomes ability to create second-reaction plays? GO DEEPER NFL playoffs: Key Commanders-Eagles matchups to watch in NFC Championship Game Stopping the Bills run game The Bills ran all over the NFLs top two rushing defenses in the playoffs.

In the regular season, the Denver Broncos had the highest success defensive success rate against the run and the Baltimore Ravens were second.

Playing those two teams in the wild-card and divisional rounds, the Bills combined for 362 yards on 75 rushes (4.8 yards per carry) with a rushing success rate of 57.5 percent (not including kneeldowns).

The Bills offensive line, tight ends and fullback have been plowing over everything in their way.

Though the Chiefs finished 14th in defensive rushing success rate, in Week 11 (a 30-21 Buffalo win), they limited the Bills run game, holding their running backs to only 2.6 yards per carry, and didnt give up one explosive run on designed rushes.

The Chiefs didnt have edge defender Charles Omenihu in that game, but the Bills running game has improved.

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will be creative with mixing up their front, moving around linebacker Leo Chenal.

Chenal is unique because he can play off-ball linebacker, but he also can hold his ground like a defensive lineman at the line of scrimmage.

Trying to confuse the Bills blocking scheme by changing fronts before the snap will give the Chiefs front its best shot at stopping this run game.

Kansas Citys secondary is also excellent at tackling and does a good job of limiting explosive runs.

Advertisement No good answers against Allen The Bills offense lacks explosive receiving weapons.

Slot receiver Khalil Shakir is the most reliable and productive option hes been the Bills leading receiver in the playoffs and had eight receptions for 70 yards against the Chiefs in Week 11.

When the Chiefs played man in that game, Allen completed 7 of 11 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown and scrambled once for 9 yards.

Playing man coverage is a bet against the Bills receivers.

With cornerback Jaylen Watson back, the Chiefs have the advantage against Buffalos receivers, but playing man coverage creates susceptibility to quarterback scrambles.

Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady did an excellent job of scheming up rub concepts to get receivers open in Week 11 and Buffalo targeted corner Nazeeh Johnson in man coverage on deep passes three times, completing two for 55 yards.

Johnson wont get a lot of playing time in Sundays matchup.

Watson looked fine last week against the Houston Texans but was mainly used as part of double-teams on Nico Collins.

Hell likely be asked to play a lot of one-on-one on Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper or Mack Hollins.

Id expect the Bills to test him on the outside.

GO DEEPER 'I couldn't believe it': Josh Allen's best plays this season, according to his Bills teammates Sitting back in zone isnt the answer against Allen either.

Teams typically play Cover 2 when going with zone against Allen.

He has been excellent at reading coverage rotations, staying patient and taking what the defense gives him.

The best answer against Allen is to play two-deep match coverages like Cover 4 and Cover 6.

Week 11, 15:00 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10 This is an example of the Chiefs using Cover 4 against the Bills from Week 11.

To the three-receiver side, they are essentially playing a Cover 4 deep with corner and safety playing deep zones.

On the other side, corner Trent McDuffie has Cooper one-on-one on the outside.

The safety to his side, Justin Reid, is looking for a deep crossing route from the three-receiver side rather than helping McDuffie.

The Chiefs executed and covered each route.

Theoretically, the best place to go against this coverage is to Cooper, but McDuffie disrupted Coopers route and Allen had to check the ball down.

But its hard to play these coverages against the Bills gap scheme running game.

If the Chiefs can get the Bills into passing situations, they have some answers because they can trust their defensive backs to play one-on-one on the outside in match coverages or man-to-man when they blitz.

You dont typically say this against a Josh Allen team, but everything hinges on how well the Chiefs stop the Bills running game.

Advertisement Chiefs offense improved since Week 11 Buffalos offense could help its defense by putting points on the board and forcing the Chiefs into a passing script.

Bills defensive coordinator Bobby Babich surprised the Ravens with an uncharacteristically aggressive game plan to stop running back Derrick Henry in the first half last week.

The Ravens eventually found some answers but it was too little too late.

The reality is that the Bills defense isnt very talented.

Defensive end Greg Rousseau, defensive tackle Ed Oliver, cornerback Christian Benford and linebacker Matt Milano are the best players.

While the defense improved when Milano returned to the starting lineup in Week 12, he still hasnt quite played at the level we are used to seeing from him.

Starting safety Taylor Rapp didnt practice Thursday and looks like a long shot to play.

GO DEEPER What makes Andy Reid the screen master? Chiefs players and coaches reveal his genius The Chiefs offense has steadily improved with receiver Marquise Brown returning from IR, rookie receiver Xavier Worthy taking some big steps forward in his development, tight end Travis Kelce flipping the playoff switch and left guard Joe Thuney giving the Chiefs the best left tackle play that theyve had in years.

The Chiefs overcame a big trench mismatch against the Texans and did enough to win.

They should have an easier time moving the ball against a Bills defense that ranks 19th in points allowed per drive in games that Milano played.

The Texans played a lot of single-high against the Chiefs and challenged their receivers because they have two very talented corners in Derek Stingley Jr.

and Kamari Lassiter.

In Week 11, the Bills played man coverage at their fourth-highest rate of the season (30.8 percent).

The strategy worked.

Mahomes EPA per dropback against man was minus-0.29, whereas his EPA per dropback against zone was 0.29.

Will the Bills try to challenge the Chiefs receivers with Brown back in the lineup? If they do, the Chiefs will take some deep shots with Brown against cornerback Rasul Douglas.

On passing downs, the Bills have used a strategy called Odd Mirror for years to contain Mahomes.

Week 11 1:14 remaining in the fourth quarter, fourth-and-13 Odd mirror is a three-man rush in which the pass rush forces the quarterback in one direction.

On this play, edge rusher Von Miller, lined up to the left of the image, takes an inside rush to get Mahomes to flush in that direction.

The spy on this play was Dorian Williams Milano typically plays this role and will be the spy in the AFC Championship.

But instead of having to guess and react to where Mahomes goes, the spy in this scheme knows exactly where he will go because its designed to flush him to the defenses left.

As soon as Mahomes moves to the defenses left, Williams triggers to pressure him.

For some reason, the Chiefs had Thuney just shuffle in front of Williams when the Bills called odd mirror.

Williams pressured Mahomes into throwing the game-ending interception.

Perhaps in the AFC Championship, theyll have Thuney try to cheat toward the side the spy will trigger to, and block him.

This is an evenly matched game between two teams that have done a great job complementing their elite quarterbacks.

The inferior unit in this game is the Bills defense and trying to defend against an improved Chiefs offense could prove to be the difference.

Of course, you can never count Allen out, but he doesnt have star pass catchers to lean on if the Bills fall behind.

In an even matchup, you have to give the slight edge to the Chiefs who have been remarkably consistent in big games and big moments.

(Top photo of Patrick Mahomes versus Matt Milano: David Eulitt / Getty Images).

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