Predators deep dive: How a splashy offseason went wrong and created an uncertain future

Nashville Predators general manager Barry Trotz sat in front of a bright yellow team backdrop, sporting a sleek blue polo and a smile as he began his July 1 press conference.

Hours earlier, Nashville had shocked the hockey world by signing free agents Steven Stamkos , Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei in quick succession.

It was a historic, franchise-altering day that saw the club commit $108.5 million in contracts to one of the best goal scorers of this generation, a Conn Smythe winner and a high-end top-four defenseman.

Advertisement Over the next 33 minutes, Trotz spoke to reporters about his splashy work in free agency.

He discussed each of his new players decorated resumes, the value of adding serial winners, and the organizations commitment to winning.

But for all the excitement and optimism the former Stanley Cup-winning head coach-turned-GM displayed, he was careful not to take any premature victory laps.

He even threw out a cautionary warning.

We dont play the game on paper, Trotz said.

Our lineup looks better but we gotta be a better team.

Plain and simple.

Trotz pointed back to those prescient words when recently speaking to The Athletic .

I was the first one to say its fantasy hockey until we become a good team with those players, he said.

What Ive learned is when you have legacy players, it takes a lot longer for them to assimilate to a new environment.

A couple of veteran general managers would tell stories about getting one of those legacy players and it taking six months before they get their feet on the ground with your organization.

We had two of them.

The Predators have started finding traction lately, having won seven of their last 10.

But they still sit bottom five in the NHL standings, rank 2th in goals scored per game despite all the offensive firepower they added, and have a two percent chance of making the playoffs.

Why has it gone wrong in Smashville this season? What does it mean for the organization moving forward? Why the Predators went big-game hunting last summer To understand where the Predators are now, you have to trace the path they took to get here.

When Trotz first took over as GM at the start of the 2023 offseason, the franchise was already transitioning.

At the 2023 deadline, Nashville was a huge seller, shipping out Mattias Ekholm , Tanner Jeannot , Mikael Granlund , and Nino Niederreiter for lucrative hauls.

Trotz continued that turnover by trading Ryan Johansen and buying out Matt Duchene in the offseason.

Advertisement The Predators had accumulated valuable draft picks and cap flexibility.

They could have pursued a full tear-it-down rebuild, but the organization was against that idea.

When I took this job, I talked to a few people (around the league) that I really, really respect, Trotz said.

The one thing they said is when you do a rebuild, if you burn it down to the absolute core, it is hard to build it up, it takes a long time.

Youre seeing it around the league, it takes 10-12 years.

Trotz also pointed out that rebuilds rely on lottery luck.

And even if you win the lottery, there isnt a Connor McDavid -like superstar in the draft to save you in some years.

There are teams that have picked very high for a long time and theyre not much further along than anybody else, Trotz said.

Nashvilles vision was to blend the goal of building for the future (which looked promising given their draft picks and prospect pool) while keeping enough high-quality veterans to stay competitive.

The hockey worlds expectations for the Predators in 2023-24 were low, given the major pieces theyd sold.

However, they surprised everybody by finishing with 99 points and making the playoffs.

This wasnt a mediocre team that got lucky; they were a legitimately good side.

The Predators were the sixth-best team in the NHL at controlling five-on-five expected goals last season.

In the first round of the playoffs, they were neck-and-neck with the Vancouver Canucks , who finished third-best in the Western Conference.

The Preds would have taken a 3-1 series lead, in fact, had Colton Sissons scored on an empty netter instead of hitting the post in Game 4.

A lack of middle-six scoring was ultimately a major reason they lost the series.

Heading into the summer, the Predators werent wrong to believe they should make some short-term roster upgrades.

Juuse Saros , Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg were an elite trio of core pieces, forming one of the best goalie, defenseman, forward combos in the NHL.

They had tons of cap space and the future looked bright considering their excess draft picks and above-average prospect pipeline.

Advertisement Yes, Nashville had played to the peak of its potential in 2023-24, but there was enough star power and promising signs around the clubs strong five-on-five play to justify thinking that it could continue being a good team, and perhaps even reach a higher level as a darkhorse contender, if they added the right 2-3 difference makers.

Thats crucial to clarify right off the bat its not that the clubs win-now mindset last summer was misguided.

Instead, its the execution of that blueprint that hasnt panned out so far.

Inside the mysterious offensive drop-off How did the Predators, who ranked 10th in goals scored per game last season, crater to 27th in scoring despite adding two 40-goal scorers? Many of their top players from last season are producing significantly less.

Internally, the Predators were prepared for a modest 10-15 percent drop-off from some of their players who had career years.

They werent ready, however, for the colossal declines weve seen so far.

Forsberg, Ryan OReilly and Gustav Nyquist were an electric first line during the second half last season.

OReilly and Nyquists 2023-24 point totals were outliers compared to recent seasons; they overachieved in 2023-24.

Another issue is their lack of top-flight playmaking centers.

Stamkos and Marchessault are elite snipers, but early in the season, they didnt have the playmakers to set them up in prime scoring locations.

Think about the elite talent each had to play with on their previous teams: Marchessault was riding shotgun with Jack Eichel and Stamkos spent large chunks of the last two years with Nikita Kucherov .

I love Ryan OReilly, if I was coaching I would take him on any team I ever had, but is he a 100-point guy? said former NHL coach Bruce Boudreau.

I dont think hes that 75-80 assist guy that the great teams always have.

(Tommy) Novak was the second-line center (at the start of the season), hes not having the year they predicted him to have with two great wingers.

Thats where their scoring trouble has come in.

Advertisement The Predators struggled to find their ideal top-six configuration until last month when coach Andrew Brunette shifted Stamkos from wing to top-line center with Marchessault and Forsberg.

Since then, Stamkos has scored nine goals and 19 points in 19 games.

Marchessault has piled up 26 points in his last 19 games.

Nashville is the highest-scoring team in the NHL since Jan.

1.

All of that is excellent news.

Its fair, however, to wonder how sustainable Stamkos recent success as a first-line center will be.

The revamped Stamkos-led top line has outscored opponents 17-10 at five-on-five, but theyve controlled only 46.9 percent of shot attempts and have benefitted from some good bounces (theyre riding an inflated 105.5 PDO).

In other words, theyve been scoring goals like one of the best first lines in the league over the last several weeks, but their underlying process suggests that they probably arent going to sustain that red-hot form over the long run.

Theyve (Stamkos and Marchessault) had to adjust their game to drive the whole line, Trotz said.

Marchessault can make plays, hes not just a shooter.

Same with Stammer.

Thats part of their game that they used on a semi-regular basis (in the past) but with us, they have to use it on a regular basis because they need to drive their lines, not necessarily be part of a good line.

The Predators should be wary of relying on Stamkos to do the heavy lifting as a play-driver.

Stamkos five-on-five point production rate cratered to average territory during his final season in Tampa Bay (1.82 points per 60).

He had poor defensive metrics, with the Lightning bleeding scoring chances and goals against with Stamkos on the ice last season.

And that was on the wing, which is a less demanding position than center.

Graphic via Evolving-Hockey RAPM model Stamkos five-on-five point rate has dropped again this season and his two-way numbers are still subpar.

He turns 35 in early February.

How much longer can he be expected to succeed as a No.

1 center? The Predators age and lack of speed up front may also need to be addressed.

Nashvilles six most-used forwards at five-on-five this season are all 30 or older.

Collectively, its the oldest group of core forwards in the NHL.

The Predators are integrating young forwards like Luke Evangelista , Zachary LHeureux and Fedor Svechkov in the bottom six.

The hope would be that they can blossom into bigger roles in the coming years.

But in the short-term, the reliance on an aging, slowing top-six forward group stands out as one of the possible explanations for the clubs first-half scoring issues.

Only one of their top nine forwards is above the 60th percentile for speed bursts above 20 mph, according to NHL Edge.

At the team level, the numbers show that Nashville is significantly slower than the average NHL team too.

Its been promising to see the Preds find their stride offensively to begin the second half.

Stamkos and Marchessault are finally gelling and finding their ideal fits.

But for the Preds to bounce back as a playoff team next season, there are still age and foot speed questions that linger, and they have to be careful not to be overly reliant on Stamkos as a play-driver.

Advertisement The Brady Skjei contract concern While Stamkos and Marchessault are starting to find their stride, Skjeis performance is still a major concern.

Skjei spent a large chunk of the first 20 games or so alongside Josi.

It looked like a tantalizing combination on paper, especially given the elite top-pair results that teams like Colorado ( Devon Toews , Cale Makar ), Vancouver ( Quinn Hughes , Filip Hronek ) and Dallas ( Thomas Harley , Miro Heiskanen ) have gotten when pairing their two best offensive defensemen.

In reality, Skjei and Josi got torched and the experiment was scrapped.

Both of those guys need a stabilizing partner, Trotz said.

I think from the offensive standpoint, the first 20 games, I dont think Brady was Brady.

I would take Brady right now, I think hes playing excellent.

Him and (Nick) Blankenburg have been really good.

While Skjei has cut down on the loud defensive mistakes he made during the first 20 games, the numbers still indicate that hes struggling.

Skjei is the Predators only defenseman whos underwater in controlling shot attempts and scoring chances at five-on-five over the last 20 games.

The system change moving from Carolina to Nashville is, of course, drastic.

He deserves time to settle in, but its also fair to wonder if the Hurricanes favorable system and team environment were propping Skjei up.

Skjei is a good defenseman but he may not be a $7 million AAV caliber high-end top-four driver.

Thats a scary possibility considering his seven-year deal takes him through his late 30s.

With Skjei unable to move the needle in Nashvilles top-four yet and Josi not playing at his usual superstar level, the teams blue line has largely underperformed this season.

Blankenburg and Adam Wilsby have been pleasant surprises, but the backends overall performance will top out as average until Skjei and Josi (whos been better lately) play to their potential.

Advertisement Whats next? The Predators arent planning on pivoting to a retool and simply view this as an off-year.

Every year theres a team that has expectations that are much higher and for whatever reason it doesnt work, Trotz said.

I look at teams last year, there were high expectations on New Jersey and there are years where it just doesnt go your way.

It doesnt mean youre a bad organization or a bad team, its a team that just didnt find its vibe or you run into injuries.

There are legitimate reasons to be optimistic that the club can bounce back in the second half and next season.

First, their schedule: Nashville had the leagues hardest first-half schedule and now has the easiest second half, according to colleague Dom Luszczyszyns model.

Second, theyve scored on just 6.7 percent of their five-on-five shots this season.

No team has finished a season shooting that low since the pandemic; theyre due for better offensive luck, which weve already started to see in January.

Third, the Predators rank in the top half of the NHL in controlling five-on-five shot attempts (10th) and expected goals (13th).

With the way they control play and some of the high-end players they have, Nashville should continue climbing the standings in the second half, even if its likely too late to make a run at a playoff spot.

Theres a path for them to bounce back and contend for a playoff spot next season too, provided they make a couple of shrewd offseason tweaks.

The big question, however, is whether theres a realistic chance of them escaping the leagues mushy middle.

Thats where there are some legitimate concerns.

Betting on Stamkos and OReilly as your top two centers for next season is a dicey proposition.

Josi, their best player, turns 35 in the summer.

The Predators have blue-chip prospects like Tanner Molendyk, David Edstrom, Matthew Wood and Joakim Kemmel developing, plus three first-round picks this year.

It will likely take years for them to hit as top-six forwards or top-four defensemen, though.

By the time some of them develop into NHL difference makers, will their older core already be significantly declining? To become a Stanley Cup contender, Nashville needs a window where the existing 30+ core is still firing and the next wave of young talent is moving the needle.

Advertisement Thats an exceptionally narrow, difficult target to try and hit.

Its one the Predators will keep chasing.

You dont want to regret If I would have made this move, this would have happened,' Trotz said.

Its easy to be a Monday quarterback and thats what your business (the media) does, thats what fanbases do.

You have to make real-time decisions.

We swung hard.

Im asking our players, our coaches, our scouts: Take your swing.

Im not gonna regret taking swings because our intentions are trying to win hockey games..

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.