Can Dan Campbell evolve? The Lions' future hopes might depend on it

( Editors note: This is excerpted from Mike Sandos Pick Six of Jan.

20, 2025.) Coach Dan Campbell became emotional after his top-seeded Lions 45-31 defeat to sixth-seeded Washington in the divisional round Saturday.

His team dominated during the regular season despite a long list of injuries on defense, only to lose at home by two touchdowns as an eight-point favorite.

Advertisement My Lions takeaways: Campbell must evolve: When evaluating Campbells aggressive fourth-down strategy six weeks ago, an executive from another team wondered if the Lions coach could shift gears for the playoffs.

I have a concern about their head coach not clicking into playoff mode, where teams really count the possessions and he wants to keep pushing his fourth-down strategy, this exec said at the time.

That was costly in their playoff loss (to San Francisco) last season.

Can he adjust to the way those games are played, when each one of those possessions is higher leverage? Campbells unapologetically aggressive approach has permeated the Lions, to great benefit.

But in a tight game against upstart Washington, the Lions lost partly because they could not regulate their aggression.

This was not a fourth-down thing as much as it was a mindset thing.

I know how they got there, but at some point, you have to acknowledge you are depleted on defense and ask how you can keep the ball out of the other teams hands, a veteran coach said.

They call a reverse pass when they are in a 10-point game with plenty of time, with a lot of talented players on that offense, in a game where they are getting 8 yards a carry on the ground.

Trailing 38-28 early in the fourth quarter, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson called for talented (but inconsistent) receiver Jameson Williams to throw on first-and-10.

Campbell could have overridden the trick play but did not.

The resulting interception proved fatal to the Lions chances.

THAT'S 2 FOR @MikeSainristil #WASvsDET FOX pic.twitter.com/D8S9ddhdsi Washington Commanders (@Commanders) January 19, 2025 I would have liked for (Williams) to run, but listen, take a risk ...

it didnt work out, Campbell said after the game.

Goffs sack and lost fumble in the first quarter resulted from the Lions passing on third-and-1 from the Washington 17-yard line.

Teams over the past five seasons have run 80 percent of the time with that down-and-distance from that area of the field.

Not only did the Lions pass, but they opted for a five-man protection.

Leading 7-3, Detroit trailed 10-7 the next time it possessed the ball.

Advertisement Goffs pick six late in the first half resulted from him trying to convert a second-and-14 with a risky throw into a disguised coverage 18 yards downfield instead of picking up roughly half the yardage with a safer pass to a wide-open Sam LaPorta.

These, too, were errors of aggression.

Im not sure those quarterback errors are overly aggressive plays, a coach from an opposing team said.

But the reverse and letting the kid throw it, I mean, come on.

A non-quarterback threading that ball in there? These possessions are precious.

Does Campbell have another gear? He arguably did not in this game, or when he went for it on fourth-and-2 from the San Francisco 28-yard line while leading 24-10 in the third quarter of the NFC title game last season.

Instead of taking a three-score lead in that game, the Lions failed to get a first down.

The 49ers scored quickly, and the Lions lost control of the game.

The Lions own an NFL-best 27-7 (.794) record over the past two seasons but have only a single playoff victory, 24-23 over the sixth-seeded Rams last season, to show for it.

Thats rough.

Both coordinators auditioning: Theres no way to know whether having Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn dedicating mental bandwidth to head-coaching interviews/prospects affected Detroit, but its hard to fathom how it could help.

Two years ago, the Eagles felt as though their Super Bowl preparations suffered for those reasons.

The penalty Detroit incurred for having 12 defenders on the field before a fourth-and-2 play from the Lions 5-yard line produced a first down and a 3.2-point EPA swing, tied for the largest EPA swing among 55 penalties for too many men enforced across the league this season, per TruMedia.

These things happen, especially for teams with lots of injuries, but the timing was horrible for the Lions.

Advertisement Goff does not elevate: Ive called Goff a great good-team quarterback, meaning hes excellent when the situation around him is very good.

He doesnt overcome as well as top quarterbacks do, through their superior mobility or ability to weather chaotic pockets.

Two of his interceptions Saturday resulted from a bad decision (the pick six) or a bad throw (the first interception, failing to lead his receiver to the opposite hash in the end zone).

Goff has 45 touchdown passes with nine interceptions against non-playoff teams over the past two seasons.

That 5-1 ratio drops to 1.5-1 (27 TDs, 18 INTs) against playoff teams.

The decline for the league at large is smaller, from 2.2-1 to 1.7-1.

Goff tossed five picks against Houston in Week 10 and three more Sunday.

The three highest paid quarterbacks in the playoffs were: Jordan Love ($55M per year) Jared Goff ($53M) Justin Herbert (52.5M) They went 0-3 with a combined 10 interceptions.

#Lions #Chargers #Packers pic.twitter.com/Qrz4zzBF4S John Breech (@johnbreech) January 19, 2025 Defensive injuries real: Glenn is getting consideration for head-coaching jobs partly because his defense improved over the years and outperformed expectations through catastrophic injuries this season.

Those injuries might have reached a breaking point when it mattered most, against a prolific Washington offense featuring a dynamic dual-threat quarterback.

This is where the Lions are at right now on defense pic.twitter.com/eENFHBc3qN Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 19, 2025 (Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images).

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