NFL divisional round picks against the spread: Jalen Hurts stays cool to send Eagles to title game

All eyes are on Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen this weekend, as Allens Buffalo Bills look to avenge a loss to the Baltimore Ravens in September as well as the MVP award that he is about to lose to Jackson.

But I am more focused on Jalen Hurts.

The Philadelphia Eagles have won 13 of 14 games and everyone is sleeping on them.

Last weeks win over the Green Bay Packers was so boring that receiver A.J.

Brown started reading a book on the sideline.

Advertisement The Eagles are great in the trenches on offense and defense, Saquon Barkley ran for 2,000 yards and they have some great receivers in Brown and DeVonta Smith.

If Hurts ever gets back to his form from 2022 and early 2023, watch out.

This year, Hurts missed two games with a concussion and had to deal with Browns complaints about the passing game.

Hurts basically shrugged and is content to be efficient.

He threw for 131 yards (and two touchdowns) on 6.2 yards per attempt against the Packers to improve to 4-0 this season when he throws for fewer than 135 yards.

His streak of 158 consecutive passes in the postseason without an interception is the seventh-longest in NFL history.

What will happen if the Eagles actually fall behind against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday or the Detroit Lions or Washington Commanders next week (spoiler alert)? Will he be able to go through his progressions and be aggressive running the ball when the pocket breaks down? And for that matter, what will happen if I stick to my guns unlike last week, when I went against the underdog Houston Texans and backed Sam Darnold and Bo Nix? Who knows? When your mind is playing tricks on you all season long its hard to know if or when it will stop.

Last weeks record : 2-4 against the spread, 1-2 on best bets.

Regular season record: 120-148-4 against the spread, 39-48-3 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made.

Click here for live odds.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) | 4:30 p.m.

ET Saturday, ESPN/ABC So, we all know the Chiefs are going to win.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in divisional round games (Donovan McNabb is second-best since 2000 at 5-1, if you want to stump someone at the bar) and hell get to 7-0 this weekend.

The question is, are they going to win by nine points? Advertisement Everyone knows that Andy Reid is nearly unbeatable off a bye week, and this year he is working in new toys like Marquise Brown (back from a shoulder injury) and recently signed left tackle D.J.

Humphries.

Speedy rookie Xavier Worthy has also taken a big step up with defenses worried about Brown, and right tackle Jawaan Taylor, running back Isiah Pacheco and defensive Chris Jones are all healthy again and practicing this week.

The Texans have a great pass rush and were all over Justin Herbert last week, pressuring him in under 2.5 seconds on 11 plays.

They allowed -0.58 EPA per play, the lowest mark in a playoff game since 2016.

Its a big test for the Chiefs reshuffled offensive line.

The reason the Chiefs will cover the spread is their pass defense.

Texans quarterback C.J.

Stroud got off to a slow start last week but everything changed after he scooped up a bad snap, scrambled and threw a dart 34 yards.

With his mojo back, Stroud threw for 223 of his 282 yards on in-breaking routes (slants, digs and posts).

Thats not happening on Saturday.

Against those in-breaking routes, the Kansas City defense led the NFL in opponent completion percentage (50 percent) and yards per attempt (6.8) and ranked third in passer rating allowed on such throws (64.4).

The Chiefs are stout against the run and will put Stroud in third-and-long situations, and will be focused on taking receiver Nico Collins away.

The Texans wont score enough points to stay close on the road.

The pick: Chiefs GO DEEPER NFL insider playoff predictions: Coaches, execs pick divisional round winners Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5) | 8 p.m.

ET Saturday, Fox We picked the Commanders last week to make the Super Bowl, and we are going to need a lot of Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin magic.

Because there is no reason to think, or even dream, that the Lions wont score a lot of points.

The Commanders dont have a very good run defense, and the Lions get David Montgomery back to pair with Jahmyr Gibbs.

Advertisement Dont even get us started on the passing game.

Jared Goff and company are the best team in the league throwing against man coverage, and its not even close.

They are No.

1 in EPA/dropback 59 percent success, 8.9 yards per attempt, 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions by a large margin.

When the Commanders played man (26 percent of the time), they ranked 25th or worse in opponent completion percentage (60 percent) and yards per attempt (7.5) while giving up 17 touchdowns, second most in the NFL during the regular season.

Against Washingtons man coverage last week, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield went 7-of-8 for 80 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Holy crap.

Thats OK.

Were still on this hill with Daniels and McLaurin.

The Lions, who are the walking wounded on defense, have not fared well with scrambling quarterbacks all season.

They are 2-2 (13-0 otherwise) against Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson and Josh Allen, giving up an average of 52 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns overall.

It gets better.

McLaurin led all receivers in yards gained on go routes (387), while the Lions have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game on targeted go routes (42.8).

Olamide Zaccheaus has also come on as of late, and the Lions arent great with slot receivers, either.

I am not second-guessing myself this time.

Give me the points.

The pick: Commanders Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6) | 3 p.m.

ET Sunday, NBC The problem with ghosts is you dont know when they will pop up, and poor Darnold crapped his pants against the Rams last week.

His offensive line was no help, but a few of the nine sacks were on Darnold.

Hurts is a much cooler customer than Darnold and, more importantly, his blocking is 10 times better.

Hurts was only sacked once and ran for 39 yards in a 37-20 win over the Rams in November.

Oh, and Barkley ran for 255 yards and two touchdowns in that game.

The Rams are young and have gotten better on defense, but not that much better.

Their only hope lies with the wildly inconsistent Matthew Stafford, who ate up the Minnesota Vikings blitzes last week.

The Eagles are so good up front that they dont need to blitz, and they sacked Stafford five times in the first meeting.

The Rams offensive line is also beat up and coming off a short week.

Advertisement If it rains, that also helps the Eagles.

Hurts will do enough to cover the spread and advance to his second NFC Championship Game in his four years as a starter.

The pick: Eagles Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Buffalo Bills | 3:30 p.m.

ET Sunday, CBS The game weve all been waiting for.

Something has to give as the Bills are undefeated at home this season, while Josh Allen is 0-3 straight up and against the spread as an underdog in the playoffs.

This is another rematch.

In the first meeting in September, Derrick Henry had an 87-yard score early and finished with 199 rushing yards as the Ravens rolled 35-10.

That shouldnt happen again, as the Bills were missing Matt Milano, among others, in that game and have since finished 12th in rushing defense despite that outing.

The bigger issue is stopping Lamar Jackson, whether he wants to establish himself by running the ball like last week against the flat Pittsburgh Steelers, or if he wants to throw the ball.

Jackson was 12-of-15 for 139 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills four-man rush four months ago, so they are going to need to blitz more than they usually like.

The Ravens blitzed Allen often that day and it was the rare occasion where he didnt punish a defense for doing so.

He threw for 180 yards and ran for only 21.

There has been a lot written ( some of it here ) and said about how much the Ravens pass defense has improved in the second half of the season, but they played Russell Wilson in three of those eight games, along with a mojo-less Stroud, Tim Boyle and Bailey Zappe (Hurts and Justin Herbert are the outliers).

I think Allen and the Bills and their crowd have been waiting for this game all season.

Allen is 6-2 with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions and a 107 passer rating in eight home playoff games, and he will fare better against the Ravens with his feet this time.

He is the real MVP.

The pick: Bills Best bets: When was the last time the Bills were underdogs? Well take them at home over the Ravens, as well as the Eagles to push the Rams around.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): The Commanders cashed for us last week and are plus-400 against the Eagles.

Guess were all buying McLaurin jerseys afterward.

TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.

(Top photo of Jalen Hurts: Al Bello / Getty Images).

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