Jason Mackey: Am I crazy, or does Penn State have a real shot to win the College Football Playoff?

Facebook Twitter WhatsApp SMS Email Print Copy article link Save PITTSBURGH The minute the inaugural College Football Playoff bracket was released, No.

6 Penn State's path was something many highlighted.

It was surprisingly favorable.

Perhaps better than that of Big Ten champion Oregon, which had just flexed its muscles with a 45-37 victory over the Nittany Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

After Penn State scored victories over SMU and Boise State, I actually don't think this is where the trip has to end.

Call me crazy, but I could see Penn State (13-2) beating No.

7 Notre Dame on Thursday and whichever team emerges from the other semifinal No.

8 Ohio State or No.

5 Texas for the national championship on Jan.

20 in Atlanta.

Here's why: I don't think Notre Dame is that good.

Yes, the Fighting Irish (13-1) beat Georgia, 23-10, in the CFP quarterfinals.

The Bulldogs had won their last two bowl games by a combined 118 points.

But Notre Dame also benefited from quarterback Carson Beck suffering a season-ending elbow injury and Gunner Stockton making his first collegiate start.

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Leonard comes into Thursday's game averaging just 170.2 yards per game, topping out at 229 and that first figure falling to 161.3 against winning teams.

He threw for just 90 yards against Georgia.

Not only that, Notre Dame's best running back, Jeremiyah Love, re-injured his right knee in the third quarter of that game.

Love is expected to play against Penn State, but it's doubtful he's anywhere near 100%.

Penn State also knows how to defend the run.

In the quarterfinals, Penn State did an exemplary job against Boise State's Ashton Jeanty, holding college football's best back to just 104 yards on 30 carries (3.5 average) with no touchdowns and two fumbles (one lost).

Penn State defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton was dominant and has been.

Amin Vanover also did a tremendous job filling in for Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Abdul Carter, who left with an injury to his left arm/shoulder.

Vanover had six tackles, two for a loss, a sack and a forced fumble.

The challenge is obviously formidable this week with Leonard and Love, but it's certainly doable for a Penn State team that has been among the country's best against the run this season (100.9 rushing yards allowed, eighth in FBS).

It's also possible the Nittany Lions pose the biggest running threat of anyone right now.

Kaytron Allen (1,026) and Nick Singleton (1,015) are not only the first two backs in school history to eclipse 1,000 yards in the same season, but Penn State has the only duo in the country this year with that distinction.

Allen and Singleton combined for 17 touchdowns and helped Penn State pile up 216 yards against Boise State, bringing its season average to 202.2.

The Fighting Irish rank 34th nationally in run defense at 127.9 yards allowed per game and are also missing defensive tackle Rylie Mills, who hurt his right knee in the first round of the CFP.

Ohio State is intimidating, but ...

I refuse to assume the Nittany Lions would automatically lose in the title game, even though James Franklin's 1-10 record would probably force most right-thinking columnists to do so.

But think back to that Nov.

2 game at Beaver Stadium.

If Penn State could've scored from the 3-yard line instead of three nothing runs for Allen and an ill-fated pass to tight end Khalil Dinkins, the Nittany Lions could've won.

That game also featured a controversial fumble by Ohio State running back Quinshon Judkins, correctable mistakes by Penn State (illegal man downfield, a silly unsportsmanlike conduct call for taunting and Carter lining up offsides) and a final Buckeye drive that I don't think would happen this time.

Remember that: 5:13 left, 10 runs and a kneel down, 58 yards and four first downs.

Penn State has come a long way since then.

An identity has formed.

Drew Allar was really impressive early against Boise State before some inconsistency crept in.

But why couldn't more of the good version come out over the final two games? There's also no guarantee it'll be Ohio State.

The Buckeyes have two losses, remember: Oregon and Michigan.

One common theme has been in inability to run the ball, with Ryan Day's squad averaging 3.7 yards per carry in those two games and 5.2 in the other 12.

What if Texas (111.8 rushing yards allowed per game) can stop Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson? Ohio State quarterback Will Howard also dropped all three of his games against Texas while he was at Kansas State, struggling in two of them.

On the flip side, Texas looked plenty beatable against Arizona State, which potentially could've closed out a two-overtime affair had a clear targeting call been made correctly.

Bottom line, the Nittany Lions aren't outsiders.

They're not on borrowed time or overmatched.

They have a challenge, sure.

Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith (13 catches, 290 yards, four touchdowns) looks uncoverable at the moment.

Quinn Ewers of Texas is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.

Notre Dame might be the most resourceful team in the tournament and boasts a 12-game winning streak.

It's also a wild storyline to consider: Penn State, the program that couldn't win the big game, the one with the coach who can't beat highly ranked teams, has a legitimate chance to win a national title.

I know.

I can't believe it, either.

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