NHL awards watch: Leon Draisaitl leads a fascinating MVP field

Throughout the season Ill be breaking down the numbers behind the race for each major player award: the Hart, the Norris, the Calder, the Selke, the Vezina, the Art Ross and the Rocket Richard.

Numbers of course arent everything, but they add much-needed context to the awards race and can help shine a light on players deserving of more recognition while adding caveats to other players that may have some warts.

This post will present the top 10 for each category based on a set criteria of guidelines.

There is plenty of room for discussion and debate within (and outside) those guidelines.

Advertisement Were right around the leagues halfway point which is a perfect time to check in on the major awards races.

A lot has changed over the last five weeks.

Not everything has changed Connor Hellebuyck will probably win back-to-back Vezinas and someone from Florida deserves the Selke but the other races have certainly seen some interesting movement.

Aside from Hellebuyck running away with the Vezina, the races look really tight between two guys, four guys or six guys.

Its going to be an extremely exciting race to the finish.

Heres who currently leads the way based on my interpretation of their numbers.

Data as of January 5 Hart Trophy Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.

Criteria: Skaters ranked by Net Rating, adjusted by position.

The MVP race is going to be a very difficult vote this season.

Two of the strongest favorites to start are out with injury, the usual front-runners have taken a backseat to their other superstar teammates, and theres a goalie doing enough to make things extra spicy.

Who should win this year? I have no idea and thats what makes this years race extremely exciting at the halfway point.

The favorite at the moment is probably Leon Draisaitl .

By Net Rating, hes been the leagues best player, currently sporting a one-goal lead over the next best skater.

Draisaitl leads the league in goals and is second in points, which for some might be reason enough.

But what makes his case so strong this year in direct contrast with his win in 2020 is his underlying numbers.

Draisaitl has been a beast at both ends of the ice.

Thats a big deal because it gives more credence to his production, that hes not just a Connor McDavid power-play merchant.

Hes doing a lot in his own right, and that starts with his play without the puck.

Draisaitl has long had a reputation for his defensive shortcomings, at which hes been chipping away slowly with improved play over the last couple years.

His work against the Stars last summer felt eye-opening to what he was capable of in a shutdown capacity and hes brought that over to this season, leading to some truly elite impacts.

With Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers have given up just 2.17 xGA/60 and 1.79 GA/60 both career-best marks by a large margin.

Its led to the Oilers earning 61 percent of expected goals and 64 percent of actual goals, also career highs.

Advertisement Some will argue about the McDavid factor, and while it doesnt carry as much weight this year Draisaitl has been excellent without McDavid it is a worthy consideration.

While Im of the mind that value created is all that really matters, Draisaitls proximity to McDavid on this list may be a difficult hurdle to overcome.

The gap between the two isnt that large and if McDavid catches up, they cant share the award.

It could mean Draisaitl losing votes to McDavid, or losing votes to the party that likes to argue the semantics of value to his team.

Draisaitl has been the leagues best player this season.

Is that enough? Cale Makar faces a similar battle.

Hes second in Net Rating thanks to a 100-point pace and a return to form defensively, but Nathan MacKinnon the league leader in points isnt far behind.

That both share so much ice together and struggle heavily without the other is a detriment to their cases, though.

With how close the two are in value, it may be even harder for either to get the necessary support.

Thats where Kirill Kaprizov and Quinn Hughes come in.

Both are putting up the same value in a significantly weaker environment (though that is something the model adjusts for), which gives both players a stronger MVP narrative satisfying the criteria for having the most value while also being most valuable to their team in the sense that the next best guy on the team isnt very valuable.

While both Draisaitl and Makar have a friend on this list, thats far from the case for Kaprizov and Hughes.

The next best Wild and Canucks skaters rank 28th and 68th respectively.

The gap between these two and their teammates is so massive that it has to be a big consideration.

So too, unfortunately, does the time theyre going to miss to injury.

How long theyre out could be a major factor.

Advertisement After that big four (or big six, really), other challengers could make things interesting.

Zach Werenski is pushing the Blue Jackets into the playoff race with an incredible season in the Makar-Hughes stratosphere.

Nikita Kucherov continues to put up big offensive numbers.

And Connor Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the world again, lapping the field enough to warrant consideration; among goalies hes in the 99.8th percentile, while does fall below where the eight skaters land.

This is not going to be an easy choice.

Norris Trophy Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.

Criteria: Defensemen that play top-pairing minutes, ranked by Net Rating.

The margins for the Norris Trophy race are razor-thin based on Makar and Hughes current Net Rating.

But that margin will likely grow in Makars favor given Hughes is expected to be out for the next few weeks.

Before the injury, it was fair to say Hughes was the Norris Trophy favorite.

His scoring rate was on par with Makars and he was doing a lot more with a lot less at five-on-five.

Hughes relative lack of support compared to Makar being one of the Denver Avengers is a big deal and made Hughes season look more special.

While Makar feels like the driving force for Colorado this season, its easy to do that when he plays over half his minutes with MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen .

Thats a luxury Hughes doesnt have especially considering Vancovers two best forwards are a shell of themselves amid a very public spat and yet Hughes still manages to have stronger relative on-ice metrics than Makar.

The tougher-opponents argument for Makar (a real one as Hughes does get secondary matchups) doesnt quite fly either, considering the overwhelming teammate advantage.

Advertisement The question now is whether the gap Makar likely creates in Hughes absence will be too large for him to overcome.

Hughes lead over Makar wasnt that large to begin with (it would be 1.1 goals with the same game total), but if he misses 15 or so games, that could result in a four-goal lead for Makar in terms of total value.

I think players should be judged more on what they do per game than on total output, but that does have to be within reason.

Its hard to give an award to a player who plays 41 games, but if Hughes plays 65 games and his per-game output is significantly stronger than Makars, that should be enough to win.

And for the Makar fans, it should be noted I held that same belief in 2022-23 when Makar only played 60 games.

The Norris will very likely come down to those two and games played may very well be the deciding factor.

After Makar and Hughes, theres a major challenger emerging: Werenski.

Hes the slam dunk No.

3 choice on the ballot at the moment, mostly a result of his scintillating scoring pace.

That hes pacing for 92 points on Columbus (!) is an absolute marvel.

His five-on-five numbers are strong, and while they do lack compared to some others down the list, his ability to create offense makes up for it.

Only David Pastrnak has taken more shots than Werenski this season and over his last 25 games, he has 35 points.

Only Leon Draisaitl has more over that stretch.

Werenski is on fire.

After those three, it gets interesting.

Josh Morrissey has been a critical part of Winnipeg s success this season and has proven again that hes one of the leagues biggest difference-makers.

Adam Fox is not the problem in New York far from it and has his usual spot on this list.

Hes been on the ice for 56 percent of expected goals and 58 percent of actual goals this season.

When hes off the ice, the Rangers sink to 44 percent for both.

Advertisement And there are some other strong choices who could make noise.

Victor Hedman has been pivotal at both ends of the ice for Tampa Bay, while Edmontons top pair has been excellent again, though not as good as last year.

John Carlson has turned back the clock in Washington and is leading one of the leagues best teams.

Rasmus Dahlin is one of the few bright spots in Buffalo.

There are a lot of strong down-ballot options, but there should be no doubt who the top two are though Werenski could make things interesting, especially if Columbus stays in the playoff race.

Selke Trophy Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.

Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their teams shorthanded minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.

The Selke Trophy should go to a Florida Panther this season but picking which Panther is not an obvious decision.

Sam Reinhart and Aleksander Barkov have both been pivotal to Florida s ability to shut down opposing teams, and each feel equally worthy.

Reinhart currently leads all forwards (under the criteria listed above) in Defensive Rating at plus-4.8 and does narrowly edge Barkov on a per-game basis as well.

Barkov would be at plus-4.1 without any time missed.

Reinhart has been on the ice for fewer goals against (2.05 to Barkovs 2.1) and expected goals against (1.75 to Barkovs 1.89), holding the statistical edge.

In terms of usage, Reinhart has had it tougher because of the time Barkov has missed, but both suit up nightly against the best of the best.

There is no wrong answer here.

Theres no shame going with the incumbent, knowing hes the guy for Florida.

The eye test does not lie with Barkov, who has been just as good as when he won last season.

But theres also no shame going with the sidekick, who proved his mettle after 10 games out by not missing a single defensive beat.

Keep building Barkovs legacy, or give Reinhart his well-deserved flowers whats it going to be? After those two, things get really interesting.

Just 0.7 goals separate the other eight players by Defensive Rating and all have a worthy narrative.

By Defensive Rating, both Jordan Staal and Anthony Cirelli have been level with Barkov.

Theyve been defensive rocks for their teams, allowing superstar lines the freedom to do their thing.

Staal doesnt quite make the 16-minute cutoff, but Ill allow it given how good hes been and the difficulty of minutes faced.

Cirelli has been a monster this season and if you had any doubts about his inclusion on Team Canada for the 4 Nations Face-Off, those should be erased now.

Hes been one of the leagues very best shutdown forwards and for the xG purists, his impact there is second to only Reinharts.

Advertisement Anze Kopitar is no stranger to the Selke Trophy and hes in the mix again.

Its awesome to see him doing his thing again at 37 the Kings have allowed only 1.61 goals against per 60 with him on the ice this season.

Claude Giroux is in the same demographic and hes a pleasant surprise just outside the top five.

Giroux has never finished top 10 in Selke voting, but hes taken on shutdown duties in Ottawa this season, including a big penalty-killing role.

His 52 percent team-penalty-kill time is seventh among forwards.

Its also important to mention that while I established a criteria to hone in on shutdown forwards, two MVP candidates wouldve made the cut here ...

if they killed penalties.

If thats not something you care about, both Draisaitl and Kaprizov grade out just as strong.

Calder Trophy Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL .

Criteria: Rookie skaters ranked by Net Rating, adjusted by position.

Macklin Celebrini didnt crack the top 10 in the last Awards Watch .

Thats partly because he had only played 12 games at that point, but also due to weak on-ice numbers that took away some of the luster from his production.

His 42 percent xG rate was among the worst marks on a bad Sharks team.

Despite scoring 10 points in 12 games, his average Game Score was just 0.43.

Since then, though, everyone has caught Celebrini Fever as hes looked like a superstar in the making if hes not already there.

During that stretch, Celebrini has been a point-per-game player with 18 in 18 games, seven more than the next-best Shark, and hes been a legitimate difference-maker at five-on-five.

When Celebrini has been on the ice, the Sharks have looked respectable with an even goal and xG differential.

Without him, theyve been outscored 31-24 and have a 39 percent xG rate.

His average Game Score since the last Awards Watch has been 1.00.

The sky feels like the limit for him.

Celebrini has been appointment viewing, which says a lot given the team hes on.

Advertisement After Celebrini, Dustin Wolf is an extremely worthy competitor and should be treated as a co-favorite if not the outright top dog.

Hes saved 7.2 goals above expected and looks like a strong future starter for the Flames .

Wolf is not far off the top 10 in GSAx and has been the biggest reason the Flames have hung around the wild-card race this season.

His percentile grade is on par with Celebrinis.

Matvei Michkov is right there with those two to round out the top three, though has taken a noticeable step back.

While his five-on-five game has come around, his production has dried up.

Hes been held scoreless in 10 of his last 11 games.

Lane Hutson has arguably been the best offensive rookie this season, but his struggles defensively have him outside the top three.

While those guys have been great (and you can add Logan Stankoven and Maxim Tsyplakov to that list, despite his second-quarter fall-off), this years rookie class lacks depth outside the main guys.

A serious dearth of first-year difference-makers could make picking the five guys on the ballot easy, but the actual order difficult.

That there are only eight first-year players with an above-average Net Rating is rough.

Vezina Trophy Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position.

Criteria: Goaltenders who have played half of their teams games or more, ranked by goals saved above expected courtesy of Evolving Hockey and MoneyPuck .

Unsurprisingly, Hellebuyck is the front-runner, though its a little closer than current sentiment suggests by goals saved above expected, anyway.

A tough week for Hellebuyck has cut his lead in GSAx over Lukas Dostal in half.

Hellebuyck has still been the leagues best goalie this season and feels like a runaway train at this point.

The Vezina is his to lose.

Hes on track to be the 13th goalie in league history with three or more Vezina Trophies and the first to win back-to-back since Martin Brodeur in 2006-07 and 2007-08.

His .926 save percentage is among the highest in the league and hes saved 0.75 goals per game above expected.

Hes somehow looked even better than he did last season, and thats saying a lot.

Advertisement A lack of brand names below him should help Hellebuycks case further.

As great as Dostal has also been, hes not getting picked over Hellebuyck, and the same can probably be said about Filip Gustavsson in Minnesota.

Aside from Igor Shesterkin (who is injured and has struggled of late) and Jacob Markstrom , the rest of the group doesnt quite have the reputation to challenge Hellebuyck.

Thats both in the eyes of the voters and in the sense that its harder to count on them to keep up their current pace.

That said, the rest of the top five Dostal, Gustavsson, Karel Vejmelka and Logan Thompson deserve major kudos for their work this season.

So does whoever predicted any of those four would be top-five goalies at the halfway point.

Art Ross Trophy Given to the player who leads the National Hockey League in scoring points at the end of the regular season.

Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season point total.

As has been the case for the last two seasons, the Art Ross will likely come down to one of three players: McDavid, MacKinnon and Kucherov.

For now, though, MacKinnon has the edge thanks to a six-point lead over the field and a double-digit lead over his two biggest threats.

You can probably add Draisaitl to that list as hes not far behind Kucherov in projected points.

Though it does feel likelier that McDavid takes the reins in the second half.

Beyond the main competitors, itll be interesting to see who can crack 100 points for the first time.

Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel look likely while Kyle Connor and Makar are close.

Rocket Richard Trophy Given to the NHLs top goal scorer.

Criteria: Skaters ranked by their projected end-of-season goal total.

Auston Matthews may not be lapping the field this year, but that doesnt mean someone else is running away with it right now.

Draisaitl currently holds a six-goal lead over the next-best player that should be relatively safe for the remainder of the year.

Draisaitl is the only player projected to hit 50 goals this season, with 54, and his main challenger, Kaprizov, is currently on the shelf.

Advertisement There are some great goal scorers behind Draisaitl, but without Matthews or David Pastrnak around, no one has the necessary pedigree to catch Draisaitl.

The Rocket is his to lose.

Data via Evolving Hockey , Natural Stat Trick and Corey Sznajders All Three Zones project (Photo: Sergei Belski / Imagn Images).

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