What Dylan Samberg's return means for the Jets defence in the short, medium and long term

Dylan Samberg has been flying around the ice in a non-contact jersey at recent practices.

He hasnt participated in battles and no one has been hacking at his broken foot, but the 25-year-old defenceman is moving in a way that suggests theres good news heading Winnipeg s way soon.

What does his impending return mean for the Winnipeg Jets defence corps? Advertisement His importance is huge, Jets defence coach Dean Chynoweth said on Friday.

Hes a big-body guy, hes played very well from the start of the year until the injury.

Now hes in a process of getting stronger every day, getting his conditioning back, his footwork, his hands.

...

Hes looked like hes making some real good progress.

What Sambergs return really means is the Jets will go back to two pairs that can win their matchups against elite competition.

It means the pending restricted free agent (with arbitration rights) gets a second swing at a career year that should see him signed as a long-term fixture in Winnipegs defence corps.

And it means the Jets will get a much clearer look at their defence between now and the March 7 trade deadline at which theyd do well to find another, more veteran player with a similar skill set, ideally on the right side.

Today, lets take a short-term, playoff-term and long-term look at the implications of Sambergs good health.

Immediate term: What it means to return from a broken foot Neal Pionk knows a lot about what his defensive partner and fellow Hermantown, Minn.

product is going through.

Two seasons ago, Pionk broke his foot blocking a shot in a road game against Dallas .

Whereas Sambergs pain was immediate and obvious, the 6-foot-4 defenceman dragging himself around the ice in desperate search for another shot to block, Pionks pain snuck up on him: a week went by before he realized hed broken his foot at all.

The Jets medical staff gave Pionk the opportunity to play through his pain, but there was one problem.

Pionks skate didnt fit his swollen foot, so Jason McMaster and Mark Grehan were tasked with punching out Pionks skate using specialized tools to expand the boot.

With careful management of his swelling, workload and pain tolerance, Pionk was able to get into and out of his skates.

Advertisement Barely.

I would take all of the laces out of my skate just to get my foot into my skate, Pionk recently told The Athletic .

And then replace my skate for each game.

Samberg can relate to the extra effort.

He broke his foot in high school the night before hunting season opened, then begged his dad Mike to let him go hunting with him on the weekend.

Samberg couldnt fit his foot into his winter boots, so the duo woke up early, took the felt liner out, fit Sambergs foot in and duct-taped a plastic bag around it to keep it waterproof through the snow.

Samberg completed the days hunt just like he completed his penalty-killing shift against the Nashville Predators.

He trekked through the snow as needed, climbed into tree stands as needed, and stayed out with his dad all weekend before conceding that his foot needed care.

We hunt two days, get back home on Monday and it still bothers him, Mike told The Athletic .

We go to get an X-ray and it was broken.

I said, Holy crap! The guys were saying, You did that to your kid? But Dylan just didnt want to miss it.

Dyls a true Northern Minnesota guy, Pionk said on Friday.

I didnt know that hunting story but I totally believe it.

What does this mean for Samberg this season? Pionk played all 82 games the season he was hurt, but his performance took a hit.

He posted the worst plus-minus, five-on-five goal differential and underlying numbers of his Jets career, skipping practices to manage the swelling and the pain.

A couple of times, Pionk got special permission to wear sneakers to games instead of dress shoes the extra cushion and lack of a hard shell spared him from unnecessary hurt.

It seems like a difficult place from which to lead a Jets defence corps, particularly after Josh Morrisseys injury in the playoffs against Vegas , but Pionk found a way to go on with seven points in five playoff games.

Advertisement It probably says a lot about Sambergs maturity, the nature of his current break, or both that hes allowed himself six weeks away from game action especially in his much-anticipated breakthrough year as a linchpin in Winnipegs defence corps.

But its possible Samberg takes some time to round back into form; Pionk remembers thinking his foot was healed, only to try skipping a step on the staircase in his garage to fresh new pain.

Remember, too, that this was Sambergs first season as a top-four defenceman.

He excelled right out of the gate but is still learning the rigours of the job.

There was a stretch where he was playing phenomenal, Pionk said.

He was breaking pucks out by himself, he was shaking guys stuff you hadnt quite seen yet at the NHL level.

I had seen it at the youth level, high school level, junior level, college level, so I knew he had it in him.

Im hoping he can pick up right where he left off when he comes back.

What can we expect up to and including the trade deadline? It seems likely Pionk is hoping that he can pick up right where he left off when Samberg comes back, too.

Pionk was nearly a point-per-game player at the moment of his partners injury, with 17 points in 20 games prior to Nov.

23 in Nashville.

Hes managed 10 points in the 21 games since that time.

Points arent everything, to be clear and they can fluctuate quite a bit for defencemen based on context and luck but the Jets were much more successful when they ran Samberg and Pionk as a duo.

Winnipeg won their minutes 18-14 at five-on-five, while dominating flow of play and outshooting teams 172-126 in their shared ice time.

Samberg is capable of getting the defensive stops that help Pionk wheel up the ice.

Pionk is a more consistent outlet passer.

Either way, the pair works in a way that other options dont.

Pionk and Haydn Fleury have been outscored 9-5 since Sambergs injury.

Pionk and Stanley have tied their minutes 2-2 while getting outshot 38-22, and Pionk and Colin Miller have won their minutes 3-0 in a small but encouraging sample.

Miller, who was struck in the throat by a puck against Detroit on Saturday, was set to receive further evaluation on Sunday.

Well get an update on Tuesday, as the Jets are scheduled to take Monday off.

Nothing we've seen in recent days shakes me from: Morrissey-DeMelo Samberg-Pionk Fleury-Miller as Winnipeg's best top six.

Still nice to see Logan Stanley trying to make an impact in the offensive zone.

Ville Heinola looked chaotic early, made more of an impact in the second.

Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) January 5, 2025 The potential of an extended absence for Miller would leave the Jets with Morrissey-DeMelo, Samberg-Pionk, and some combination of Logan Stanley , Ville Heinola , and Dylan Coghlan as healthy short-term options.

Stanley has been more ambitious of late in the offensive zone a positive sign and Heinola recently played his career-high 13th game in a season.

But Stanleys lack of pace has been exposed on Winnipegs penalty kill, while Heinolas inability to tie up Alex DeBrincat contributed directly to Detroits game-winning goal on Saturday.

Advertisement Even if they help in the long run, Stanley and Heinola havent done enough to convince me theyre top-six options for a team in search of a deep playoff run.

Even in the scenario above, where Fleury and Miller are Winnipegs third pairing, the Jets could use an upgrade in their top four.

Samberg is clearly the Jets best option to help Pionk against elite competition.

Add a big, mobile right-handed defenceman who gives Winnipeg an upgrade on DeMelo on the top pair and the Jets would look a lot better prepared to handle things the next time Colorado , Vegas or some other team runs a bunch of net-front plays after burning up the ice with speed.

I know the Jets liked Rasmus Ristolainen prior to him resuscitating his career in Philadelphia.

I expect theyd be kicking tires on him again now.

Marcus Pettersson is a left-handed option ranked highly on our trade board, while Alexandre Carrier is a good penalty killer, David Savard is likely on the market and Cody Ceci made it to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup final last year.

Not all of these options are ideal but most of them are moves Winnipeg could make without sending another first-round pick out the door.

Remember, Winnipeg isnt loaded with draft capital this year: its second-round pick belongs to New Jersey via last years Tyler Toffoli trade, while their fourth-round pick belongs to San Jose thanks to the Vladislav Namestnikov trade in 2023.

Next year and onward: What will the blue line look like going forward? Are you contributing to wins? Thats the biggest thing that I care about, Pionk said.

I dont worry about (points and money).

Thats why you hire an agent.

Pionk is a pending UFA and needs a new contract, too, though.

I expect Winnipeg is the team to give it to him, implying this depth chart to start 2025-26: *Denotes earliest eligibility.

Subject to change, pending next contracts.

All of the ages and contracts you see are as of Sept.

1, 2025.

Fleury and Coghlan are also pending UFAs whose futures could continue in Winnipeg.

The table is also a good reminder that the Jets dont spend a ton of money on their blue line compared to other teams.

This season, with Pionk making $5.875 million and Samberg at just $1.4 million, the Jets spend the eighth-smallest percentage of their salary cap on their defencemen.

They could retain Pionk at his current cap hit and pay Samberg $5 million without making it into the top half of league defence spending.

Advertisement The point isnt to spend the least, though its to have the best, or as close to it as possible.

The Jets defence corps hasnt changed a whole lot since it couldnt handle Colorados speed or net-front presence during last years playoffs.

DeMelo has looked a step slower this year than last, while Stanleys emergence as an everyday player further contributes to a lack of pace.

The Jets penalty kill has struggled, with defencemen slow to move from the net front into the shooting lanes on the flanks.

In a perfect world, Winnipegs trade deadline acquisition would be a top-four player with term.

This would give the Jets flexibility on Pionks next deal; they dont need to sign it if the ask is out of reach.

It would also insulate the Jets against the possibility that the highly touted Salomonsson, 21 in August, needs a moment to get up and running as a top-four defenceman in the NHL.

Ristolainen makes $5.1 million for two seasons after this one its tough to see him as ideal without substantial salary retention so my blue sky continues to be someone like MacKenzie Weegar in Calgary.

Weegar, 30, makes $6.25 million forever until 2031, so he comes with his own challenges, and Calgary would likely do well to keep him if they can.

I think Winnipeg would do well to win a Mattias Ekholm , Chris Tanev -type sweepstakes at one point given this upgrade conversation springs up annually, but its a big ask for a club also looking for help down the middle.

What will Samberg and Pionk earn going forward? NHL players tend to get paid based on their role, the number of years theyve succeeded in that role, and their point production.

This helps the Jets with respect to Samberg; even though he has arbitration rights (and could theoretically leverage them into UFA status as early as 2026) he doesnt have multiple seasons of top-four success at this point in time.

Sambergs 37 points in 177 career games dont scream big-ticket payday, either, although watching the Jets penalty kill falter without him reminds us of his value on that front.

Evolving-Hockey projects a $2.8 million AAV on a four-year extension, which strikes me as low.

DeMelo signed his four-year, $4.9 million contract as a UFA last summer and I expect Samberg to deliver superior value over the next four years.

Sambergs market value, according to Dom Luszczyszyns Game Score model, is expected to be close to $5 million in that same time frame even if Samberg cant secure that big of a payday, I expect something much closer to it than the $2.8 million projection.

Pionks longevity inside Winnipegs top four, combined with his power-play duties, multiple 30-point seasons and 56-point pace this year make him a more expensive proposition.

Evolving Hockey projects a $6.1 million AAV over five years for the pending UFA, while Doms Game Score estimates a value closer to $5 million.

Those numbers will be updated in the coming weeks as we cross the midway mark for most teams.

Advertisement Signing Pionk long-term would come with risk for Winnipeg.

Hes played a big role for the Jets but most give Samberg (and Brenden Dillon ) most of the credit for his even-strength success.

Hell also be 30 next year which adds the risk of age to any particularly long-term contract, giving the Jets two veteran righthanders with the potential for inefficient long term deals.

I still think player and team are keen to extend their relationship.

Pionk fits in well in the locker room, plays big minutes, and told me in September that Winnipeg is a place hed love to raise his family.

I would love to play here, he said.

I would love to win here.

Im going into my sixth season now.

Our daughter was born here.

We have a house here.

Its six and a half hours away from home for both of us.

Our parents come up all the time.

Our friends and family come up all the time.

We feel like were home here.

Wanting to play in Winnipeg is worth something.

If Pionk signs with the Jets this summer, I suspect were in for quite a bit of discussion about the cap efficiency of his contract.

Thinking from the organizations point of view, I think Winnipeg will be willing to explore those tradeoffs in the name of keeping players who view the city as home.

(Photo: Sergei Belski / Imagn Images).

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