The 2 biggest questions facing the Winnipeg Jets' status as Stanley Cup contenders

I dont know if you guys have seen the standings, Scott Arniel reminded us at Fridays Jets practice.

We are No.

1 in the league.

I dont know if you notice that.

But teams are ready for us.

And theyre coming out hard.

Its clear that Winnipeg has not matched its record-setting start to the season.

Advertisement The process hasnt been there, with the Jets losing the flow-of-play battle at five-on-five.

The results have flagged, with a 15-1-0 start giving way to a late November losing streak and a 5-4-1 December record.

The Jets say theyre not rattled by recent results, although it seems as though theyre feeling an increased sense of urgency with games against Minnesota and Toronto between now and the holiday break.

We cant wade into games, Arniel said Friday.

We cant chase games early and rely on our goaltenders to make big stops.

We have to be better.

Gone are the days when Winnipeg would roll one line after another into multiple, consecutive offensive-zone shifts.

The Jets arent leaning on other teams like they used to, with Mark Scheifele s line handing an offensive-zone shift off to Vladislav Namestnikov s line, who then does the same thing for Adam Lowry s group and so on down the lineup.

Other teams are doing that to Winnipeg now, including teams Winnipeg should expect to beat.

I put the concept of hand-off shifts to Arniel on Friday.

Anaheim had four shifts in a row against all four of our lines where we got stuck in our end or there was a rush coming the other way.

Thats exactly the type of thinking that we have to have that we come out in the first period and we do that one right after the other, he said.

And youre right, part of our success is that we steamroll people, we keep coming at them, we get them on their heels, force them to make mistakes.

The Jets have been the ones making mistakes lately, and while their first-place status is well-acknowledged this is not a lottery team on a five-game slide, or close to it Winnipeg has work to do to reclaim its well-earned swagger from earlier in the season.

Today, were looking at two of the biggest questions facing Winnipegs Cup contender status one intangible, one very clear and how the Jets might approach solving them.

Advertisement Do the Jets have the mental toughness to stay at the top? Winnipegs biggest on-ice needs are a right-handed Dylan Samberg clone (or a prime-aged Dustin Byfuglien) and a truculent, shift-disturbing forward who can play elite opposition and beat it while also scoring like a top-six forward.

Yes, those are enormous asks.

No, the Jets dont need either to be competitive.

Airlift either player onto this Jets roster and I would immediately perceive it as more playoff-ready than it already is.

There is also a lingering concern about the teams mental toughness.

Winnipeg led the league last January, too, before a drop in quality of play led to poorer underlying numbers (despite an eight-game win streak to end the season) and red flags before the playoffs.

The Jets led the Western Conference in 2023 before a poor second-half led to a first-round loss against Vegas and have been known for second-half struggles going as far back as 2018-19 when they led the West before a second-half collapse led to a first-round exit against St.

Louis .) In some ways, this discussion is unfair.

The Blues and Golden Knights won the Cup.

It cant possibly be as simple as the Jets were good but lost, so they must lack mental toughness.

But there have been signs.

Winnipeg does revert back to an indirect, skill-heavy, find-the-seam-passes type of game when things arent going well.

The Jets havent won a postseason game after losing one since the 2020 qualifying round against Calgary (or, if you prefer to think in terms of a 16-team playoffs, since 2019 against St.

Louis the last playoff games of Byfuglien and Bryan Littles careers.) Perhaps the worst way in which this critique is unfair? If you use Winnipegs past to paint this years team with broad strokes, then theres nothing it can do other than win the Stanley Cup to overcome the criticism.

It doesnt matter if Winnipeg is in first place now, through January, or into the stretch run: If you decide the Jets are not resilient and then they lose in the playoffs, then you were right all along.

Advertisement Its more likely that the Jets core, which has struggled to play the right way and maintain its 200-foot stubbornness at times in the past, is doing its best to learn from those past struggles.

Their history belongs to them, whether fair or not, so I cant help but keep this question front of mind as the league catches up to Winnipegs hot start.

I dont mean to ask it as if I know the answer.

Arniel told me Friday that the Jets arent worried about their spot in the standings.

Were 23-10-1.

If we had started 9-6 and got ourselves to this, how would we feel? How would we be looking at it? Arniel said.

Were looking at the fact that, right now, were 5-4-1 in our last 10.

Colorado is 6-4.

Dallas is 6-4.

Minnesota is 6-4.

Thats what were zooming in on right now.

It feels great to be sitting in first place, but that is not our goal.

Weve got to win this division, first and foremost, and then whatever happens going forward ...

Arniel then changed direction.

There has been sputters along the way.

We had a four-game losing streak and it was like the earth shattered, but teams go through it.

We knew it wasnt going to be roses all of the way through, but weve gotten better in our last 10, he said.

I dont think it would be realistic to view Winnipegs growth from missing the playoffs to 2023 versus Vegas to 2024 versus Colorado as a straight line.

Perhaps we should keep the same perspective as the first-place team does its best to ward off familiar problems.

Winnipeg has been a decidedly middling team at five-on-five over its last 10 games, relying on big-time moments from its stars and its league-best power play to keep itself in games.

Perhaps Winnipegs power play (and goaltender) are buying it time to find itself at five-on-five, the same way its 15-1-0 start bought it some runway at No.

1 in the NHL .

Do the Jets have four top-four defencemen and so what if they do? Sambergs emergence as a top-four defenceman is one of the best stories of Winnipegs season and it shouldnt have been a surprise.

Weve projected top-four potential for Samberg since he was a college star in need of an NHL contract , watched him succeed as a rookie in a sheltered third-pair role, and then doubled down on his top-four trajectory prior to last season .

Advertisement The plan is for Samberg to start skating on December 27 with a return in the new year.

Not every defenceman manages the leap from the third pairing, though.

Weve seen Logan Stanley struggle to consolidate third-pairing results to the point where he can be relied upon or force his way higher up the lineup.

Ville Heinola continues to work toward everyday NHL status, getting fresh opportunity now that Stanley is out for at least two games after hurting his foot after blocking a shot against the Ducks.

Haydn Fleury had excellent numbers in spot duty on the Jets third pair but has been outscored 9-5 alongside Neal Pionk and outshot at a similar rate.

When Samberg got hurt, we warned against underestimating his massive loss but may have understated the consequence.

#NHLJets have more than one problem now, but one of them is definitely how bad Fleury-Pionk have been compared to Samberg-Pionk.

For context, those numbers are basically the avg performance of DAL vs avg performance of CHI.

[image or embed] Garret Hohl ( @garrethohl.bsky.social ) December 19, 2024 at 12:04 AM It seems clear that Winnipeg needs Samberg in its lineup to properly handle elite opponents.

Hes great in defensive coverage, blocks shots, kills penalties and protects the middle of the ice with brains and brawn in a way befitting his rise up the Jets depth chart.

Arniel is proud of that depth chart but acknowledges Winnipegs challenge without Samberg in the lineup.

Haydn hasnt played this much in a long time, let alone the last couple of years, Arniel said.

It just drives up Stans minutes, drives up, whether its Ville or Millsy, everybody sort of has to take on a little more of a role and thats just sort of what happens.

Like you said, next man up.

It also puts a big strain on your top with Mel, P, Mo.

Note the way Arniel separated Stanley from Heinola and Colin Miller .

Despite results, it seems as though the 6-foot-7 defenceman is in a tier of his own, behind the Jets established top four of Josh Morrissey , Dylan DeMelo , Samberg and Pionk.

Thats fine if the Morrissey-DeMelo pairing crushes its minutes like it did last year and if the Samberg-Pionk pairing maintains its early season excellence when back at full health.

...

But that brings us to the next question about Winnipegs top four defence.

Advertisement DeMelo has gone from coachs porn, in the words of Paul Maurice , to dominant results under Rick Bowness for two seasons, to a tougher-than-expected first half of this season.

The Morrissey-DeMelo pairing is winning its minutes by a score of 20-17 in real goals but giving up too many chances; I see DeMelo as a big part of that.

Hes been beaten in open ice for scoring chances and a step behind in his netfront battles, too, including on the PK.

DeMelo has a strong enough track record with Morrissey to earn a little bit of patience.

At the same time, its easy to see a world in which a higher-end, more physical, more dynamic player delivered even better results on Winnipegs top pair.

If the Jets could snap their fingers and add Byfuglien, Chris Tanev , MacKenzie Weegar , or someone of that ilk, bumping Pionk and DeMelo one rung down the depth chart, it would insulate the Jets against injuries and increase their playoff chances.

The Jets blue line needs work, whether or not in that form: Pionk is scheduled to become a 2025 UFA, while Samberg is going to be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights.

Sambergs earliest UFA year is 2026, meaning hell have plenty of leverage to negotiate a raise if the Jets want to extend him long-term as they should, particularly given what weve seen from him this season.

Ideally, the Jets blue line gets work done in time for the playoffs, though, lest Winnipeg get beat in the middle of the ice on those scramble plays and rebounds as in its recent playoff efforts.

(Photo of Dylan Samberg celebrating a goal: James Carey Lauder / Imagn Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article:

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