ATSWINS

Patriots-Chargers preview: What to watch for Drake Maye vs. Justin Herbert

Updated Dec. 28, 2024, 11 a.m. by Andrew Callahan 1 min read
NFL News

Two to go.

The Patriots will kick off their penultimate game of the season against a Chargers team that can clinch a playoff bid with a win Saturday.

The Pats are slated as 4.5-point underdogs against Los Angeles, which escaped New England with a 6-0 win last season.

Since then, first-year coach Jim Harbaugh has steeled the Bolts into one of the toughest, most fundamentally sound teams in the league.

As the Patriots work to patch their own fundamentals, theyll be trying to match last years win total with their fourth victory of the season.

If theyre to upset the Chargers, Drake Maye must out-duel Justin Hebert, his most common pro comparison as a draft prospect.

Can he do it? Heres what else to watch for in Foxboro: Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson fumbled last week in Buffalo, but if history is any indication, both will be asked to carry the load again against Los Angeles.

Stevenson and Gibson are too valuable to the offense to be sidelined, both as runners and receivers.

But a start for Gibson isnt out of the question.

Not only did Jerod Mayo not rule out the possibility this week in a press conference, Gibson took more snaps than Stevenson in Buffalo.

Hes also averaging 3.99 yards after contact, which could be critical against a strong tackling defense like the Chargers.

Stevenson is averaging more than five yards per carry after the bye, but seems to have worn down this season while tracking for a new career-high in rush attempts.

With six more carries, hell get there.

As always, the Patriots passing game starts with protection.

But theres one wrinkle there this week: a question mark at center.

With Ben Brown in concussion protocol, Cole Strange and midseason addition Lecitus Smith took all the starting snaps in practice this week.

Strange, who hasnt played center before in an NFL game, sounded eager for the opportunity this week.

Otherwise, the biggest problems will be on the edges handling Chargers outside linebackers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.

Downfield, the Pats will face tough matchups across the board, none tougher than Derwin James.

The All-Pro safety plays all over Los Angeles zone-heavy defense, disguising blitzes and coverages.

Maye will need to steer clear of James, while looking for his favorite targets in Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte.

You talk about Derwin James; one snap, he could be in the middle of the field.

The next snap, he could be blitzing off the edge, Mayo said this week.

So, I think he does a good job just putting those guys in positions to go out there and maximize their athletic ability.

Chargers running back J.K.

Dobbins is set to return Saturday after a stint on injured reserve and figures to provide a big lift to LAs ground game.

Hes rushed for 766 yards and eight touchdowns this season, a powerful runner capable of breaking tackles in tight quarters.

But whoever is carrying the ball may not matter if the Patriots cant fix their problems with tackling, run fits and fundamentals.

Last week at Buffalo, failures at the defensive line and linebacker levels allowed a 46-yard touchdown run and game-sealing first-down run in the final minutes.

Multiple linebackers, including Jahlani Tavai and Sione Takitaki, are questionable this week for the Patriots.

More than most battlegrounds Saturday, the Pats run defense against the Chargers rushing attack should be a strong indicator of whos winning the war.

As the weather changes and theyre coming out this way, I expect them to try to run the ball, especially how we looked last week, Mayo said.

So, thats the challenge to the players that, look theyre going to come in here, its no secret.

Theyre going to want to run the ball, and we have to stop them and make them a one-dimensional team.

Its all about Ladd McConkey.

The second-round rookie leads all other Chargers pass-catchers by more than 400 yards.

He can operate inside the slot and threaten deep outside.

A guy that can get open versus man-to-man coverage.

Look, hes playing well right now.

He also does a good job finding space in the zone coverages.

Hes definitely a player you got to keep your eye on, Maye said.

Last week, Jonathan Jones successfully shadowed Buffalos top target, Khalil Shakir, who profiles similarly to McConkey.

That allowed Christian Gonzalez to blanket the Bills bigger receivers who stood 6-foot-3 or taller.

That plan, rooted in a man-coverage rate north of 60%, might also apply this week, with LAs No.

2 and No.

3 receivers, Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer both being bigger, big-play threats.

Either way, it will be a tall task against Justin Herbert (3,243 yards, 18 TDs, 3 INTs), who hasnt thrown a pick without being pressured.

As of late, the Patriots rank among the worst pressure defenses in the league.

Chargers 30, Patriots 20.

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