Analysis | Air Force football standouts entering transfer portal a cause for concern, but not yet panic

If the developments of this past week simply amount to the loss of two players, Air Force football will recover.

If this hints at a trend, the program could be in trouble from a competitive standpoint.

A pair of sophomore defenders OLB David Santiago and DB Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner announced their plans to jump into the transfer portal when it opens Monday.

This doesnt necessarily mean they are leaving, but thats generally the outcome.

This isnt new.

In the most recent cycle there were 3,843 names in the FBS portal, including several from Air Force.

More than a fifth of FBS rosters were made up of transfers.

So what makes this scenario different and concerning? Its because teams other than the service academies can replace players lost to the portal with incoming transfers, and this is Air Force losing a different kind of player to that one-way road in a way that could lead to a detrimental cycle.

The players the Falcons generally lose to the portal are those leaving after seeing their path to playing time being blocked.

Santiago and Tuioti-Mariner had proven themselves as key players and then left, and that rarely happens for Air Force football.

Over the past 20 years, the most prominent cases of Falcons losing young, established players were linebacker Anthony Schlagel, who left for Ohio State after his sophomore year, and slot receiver Micah Davis, who has since played for Utah State and Ole Miss.

Cadets can leave a service academy prior to the start of their junior year, so Air Force need only worry about losing players up to that point and, in football, has obviously been successful in guarding against that.

Part of that is sophomores are generally unlikely to rise to prominence in coach Troy Calhouns program, but thats not always the case.

Over the past decade an impressive all-sophomore Air Force team could be constructed that would include safeties Weston Steelhammer and Trey Taylor, running backs Jacobi Owens, Timothy McVey and Brad Roberts and defensive linemen Alex Hansen and Ryan Watson.

The list could go on.

The Falcons get some help as many of their players possess size or skill sets unique to their systems needs particularly on the offensive side that wouldnt fetch as much demand on the open market.

Maybe more than anything, the structure of the academy helps insulate it against cadets wanting to leave during the second year.

If youve made it through basic training, recognition, survival training and at least three semesters packed with 18-plus strenuous credit hours, youve got skin in the game.

But now, leaving is easier and has its own incentives.

Starting in 2021, NCAA Division-I athletes could transfer without sitting out a year.

Thats what initially led to the spike in transfers.

Now, as NIL opportunities evolve, the promise of quick cash is an ever-present lure.

In theory, this wont hit hard for the academies because theyve never routinely competed for the kind of recruits who draw significant NIL packages.

But that will become a problem if teams outside the Power Conferences can offer more and more money, and if the Falcons can develop talent in their sophomore and freshmen classes.

Maybe these are simply cases of Santiago and Tuioti-Mariner being undervalued as recruits and once they made their way onto the field it became apparent that needed to be corrected.

So, what can be done? Air Force already goes out of its way to shield younger players, keeping many off the roster and not allowing sophomores or freshmen to speak with media.

Limiting playing time for sophomores isn't on the table, as Calhoun has been adamant that he will use the players in any given week.

It might seem like recruiting players who particularly desire military life and seem more loyal to the academy would be an answer, but thats already happening.

And circumstances can change.

How could anyone possibly know how someone might react when they develop athletically and are suddenly presented with an attractive offer that comes without the demands of a service academy? Perhaps no Air Force program does a better job of finding all-in players than coach Mike Kazlauskys baseball team, which routinely sends most of its players to pilot training, special forces or graduate school.

And even that team has seen players leave for LSU, Vanderbilt and Xavier in the past three years, even as the Falcons have risen to winning regular-season and Mountain West Tournament titles.

By the way, that LSU transfer was Paul Skenes, who has since rocketed to the top of his profession as the NL All-Star Game starter and Rookie of the Year.

His example underscores the point that sometimes Air Force grabs an athlete who is able to tap into an upside that sends them on a trajectory that outshoots their station, and maybe Santiago and Tuioti-Mariner will prove they fall under a version of that.

Its not as though Air Force football doesnt already stress loyalty by example.

Only three coaches nationally have been in their position longer than Calhoun, who is an Air Force graduate, and his staff is loaded with grads.

A look at the state of service academy football shows it remains healthy.

Army just won the American Athletic Conference and, at 11-1, is making its case for a College Football Playoff berth.

Navy is 8-3 and spent time in Top 25 this season.

Air Force averaged 10 wins over the past four full seasons and, though ravaged by inexperience and injuries this year, managed to rebound with four consecutive wins and finish one victory shy of bowl eligibility.

There isnt a crisis by any means.

Yet.

If you want to see where this could lead, however, simply look at Air Force mens basketball.

From Tre Coggins to Matt Mooney through Jake Heidbreder and Rytis Petraitis, the Falcons have routinely seen key players depart over the past decade and have struggled as a result.

Again, this is just two players.

But the framework of college athletics is set up in such a way to turn this into something far worse for Air Force.

And Calhoun is well aware of it.

Lets be real, if there were 32 teams in the NFL and 31 of them were able to bring in free agents and one wasnt ...

if you were that one, you would like to have that field a little bit level, Calhoun said in August.

But its not.

Air Force has lost players before and thrived.

Injuries and academy-related issues pop up, someone else steps in and the system rolls on.

As good as Santiago and Tuioti-Mariner are, this doesnt have to be any different.

But as this season showed, nothing can be assumed.

Sometimes inexperience means turning to younger players and enduring growing pains.

And if this begins a cycle where those who sprout quickly through that process are suddenly transplanted elsewhere, then when does the harvest arrive? Doomsday isnt here.

But if a day comes where Air Force and its service academy brethren can no longer regularly be competitive, its likely to stem from issues that began by looking an awful lot like this..

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