College Football Playoff odds stock watch: The rise of Tennessee and fall of Miami

Editors note: This article is part of the College Football Stock Watch series, breaking down which teams are rising and falling in the Playoff race.

Another week brought more chaos at the top of the college football world.

And when one or two of the top teams in the country fall, that means others rise in the College Football Playoff race.

Advertisement First, Ohio State stole the headlines for all the wrong reasons when it lost to Michigan as a heavy favorite.

Miami followed by losing to Syracuse .

Ohio State is still a Playoff lock, though some think its hopes of a home game are on the ropes.

Im not so sure.

On the other hand, Miami will likely need some help to get back into the field.

And we were a two-point conversion away from Georgia being on the outside looking in with an SEC title game loss.

The chaos wont stop at the end of the regular season, as the conference championship games will bring their own drama.

But for now, lets see whose stock is rising, falling and steady after Rivalry Week, according to my projections model .

GO DEEPER College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Yes, Alabama still has a chance Stock up I wasnt overly impressed with Tennessees win over Vanderbilt on Saturday , but if we have learned anything during this college football season, its that wins are far from guaranteed.

You take them when you can get them.

And thats what Tennessee did (and what Alabama couldnt).

The most impressive thing about Tennessees victory is that the Vols were able to win by double-digits after spotting Vanderbilt a 14-0 lead.

If you would have asked me if Tennessee was making the Playoff during the first quarter of the noon slate, I would have said no.

I dont know what the ceiling of this Vols team is, but any team can win on any given day this year.

Just making the Playoff gives a talented team like the Vols a shot to end up as national champion.

Tennessee is a virtual lock to make the Playoff, at over 99 percent, according to my model , with a small chance of hosting a home game at 29 percent.

Tennessee is projected as the No.

9 seed, drawing a rematch with No.

8 seed Georgia.

Neutral The neutral label may be surprising to some, but Ohio State is still one of the best teams in the country and is still likely to host a home Playoff game.

The Buckeyes benefited from Miami losing and SEC teams like Ole Miss knocking themselves out of the race.

And despite the loss to Michigan yes, it is a terrible loss Ohio State is the second-most likely national champion, per my projections, at 18 percent.

Ryan Day has a problem beating Michigan , and luckily for him, Michigan will not be in the field.

Advertisement I do have questions about Ohio States offensive line against quality defensive lines going forward, but a few weeks off should help that unit for the potential four-game run to the title.

And just about every team has questions at one position or another as the calendar has turned to December.

The fact of the matter is the Buckeyes are one of the most talented teams in college football and have one of the best wins, on the road at Penn State , in addition to beating Indiana .

Their other loss came by a point on the road to Oregon, the No.

1 team in the country.

Ohio State is projected as the No.

7 seed, hosting a rematch with No.

10 seed Indiana in the first round.

Is it possible the committee shakes up the rankings to avoid a rematch? Maybe.

But as it stands right now, they have said they wouldnt avoid rematches, and my projections reflect that.

GO DEEPER Meet 2024 Ohio State, the unhappiest Playoff team in college football history Im confident Texas was going to make the Playoff even with a loss to Texas A&M, but now with a win , Texas is the SEC favorite with an outside shot at the No.

1 seed.

My model gives the Longhorns a 59 percent chance of getting revenge on Georgia, and they are about even odds to get the No.

1 seed with Penn State but far behind Oregon .

Even with a loss to Georgia, Texas will be either the No.

5 or No.

6 seed, which means itll be waiting to see who it draws in the bracket to host in the first round.

Regardless of what happens in Atlanta, Texas remains in great position.

GO DEEPER What does the return of Texas-Texas A&M mean? Here's what I saw before, during and after Clemson didnt look all that impressive in a loss to South Carolina, but Miami losing to Syracuse gave it a spot in the ACC title game against SMU with a chance at a first-round bye.

The Tigers fell to 9-3, but their Playoff odds actually increased by 11 percentage points to 53 percent, so I guess there is an argument that they should be in the stock up section.

But considering they again lost to a quality opponent and have taken themselves out of the at-large race, I cant convince myself that they increased their stock this weekend.

Advertisement The Tigers are projected as the No.

4 seed, as my model has them as a slight favorite over SMU in the ACC Championship Game but unlikely to overtake Boise State for the No.

3 seed.

It could be a tight battle for two byes between the ACC, Big 12 and Mountain West champions.

Stock down With a victory on Saturday at Syracuse, Miami was going to be in the Playoff no matter its result in the ACC Championship Game against SMU.

But the Hurricanes fell short and now leave their fate in the hands of the committee against Alabama and possibly SMU for an at-large spot.

There is certainly an argument for Miami to be ahead of Alabama, but my model projects Alabama to get the nod on Tuesday night.

This mostly comes down to Alabama playing one of the tougher schedules in the country, especially compared to Miami, and thats something that could be a larger problem for the ACC versus the SEC or the Big Ten in the future.

I dont believe theyll have the quality schedules to get the benefit of the doubt when compared to teams from those conferences.

Hope isnt entirely lost for Miami.

The committee could slot the Canes ahead of Alabama, which would put them in a position to receive that final at-large bid if the chips fall the right way.

However, my model projects Miami to make the Playoff just 8 percent of the time after it spent much of the second half of the season in the 90s.

Where the Group of 5 stands Tulane locked up a spot in the AAC Championship Game some time ago, but its Playoff hopes were reliant on winning out.

Unfortunately, the Green Wave lost to Memphis and likely knocked themselves and the AAC out of the Playoff hunt.

Its not entirely impossible, but I dont see a world where Tulane or Army can jump UNLV if the Rebels can upset Boise State.

That means that the Mountain West title game should be an elimination game for the College Football Playoff.

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(Photo: Bryan M.

Bennett / Getty Images).

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