Will the Cardinals trade Nolan Arenado? Why a potential deal will likely have to wait

As the St.

Louis Cardinals seek to reset their roster heading into 2025, they are planning for multiple scenarios without the players they had once assumed would be key parts of their long-term success.

One such scenario is that next years Opening Day third baseman might not be Nolan Arenado .

The Cardinals are continuing to explore Arenados potential market, and league sources familiar with the situation believe more clarity regarding Arenados future will come in the next few weeks.

Advertisement For now, those questioning Arenados tenure with the Cardinals must simply wait and see.

Expect Major League Baseball s annual Winter Meetings to be a better indicator of what Arenados market could look like.

Before we project that, it helps to outline what we know already, including the parameters of a possible deal.

Arenado, 33, has three years remaining on his current deal and is still owed $74 million: $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027.

He also has a full no-trade clause, and according to a team source, he wouldnt waive that clause unless it was for a contender.

Thats partly why Arenado is open to playing first base next year or at least spending less time at third base; that flexibility would presumably make him more attractive to contending teams that already have a third baseman.

The trade wouldnt just benefit Arenado, who has been candid about his desire to play postseason baseball over the past several years.

The Cardinals would be motivated to move Arenados contract because it would clear a substantial amount of money off their books, and the organization has already stated next years payroll will be going down.

A trade would also open the hot corner to one of their younger players or upcoming prospects, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has made it clear he will prioritize consistent playing time for the organizations young players next year.

The most important thing to note: Neither the team nor the player has agreed to a trade.

The sides have only agreed to explore the possibility of one.

There remains a scenario in which the Cardinals keep Arenado, though multiple league sources believe the odds of St.

Louis trading him to be higher than the odds of retaining him.

Home run #15 on the season for Nolan Arenado makes it a one-run game! #ForTheLou pic.twitter.com/ynMRv0VJBf St.

Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) August 31, 2024 As for when traction will pick up, that will depend on baseballs market at large.

Currently, much of the position-player market is relatively unclear, and it will probably remain that way until superstar Juan Soto signs what is expected to be a colossal free-agent contract.

Five teams are believed to be in the mix for Soto: the New York Yankees , Los Angeles Dodgers , Boston Red Sox , New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays .

Coincidentally, at least two of those teams could be looking to upgrade their corner infield spots but would refrain from moving on those plans until the Soto sweepstakes are decided.

Per The Athletic s Ken Rosenthal, the Yankees and Red Sox could pivot to adding a high-profile infielder if they miss out on Soto.

Though Arenado has not outright said which teams hed waive his no-trade clause for, New York and Boston look to be contenders within the American League East next season.

Advertisement The free-agent market will also be telling.

Alex Bregman is the top third baseman available through free agency, and the terms to which he agrees will help gauge Arenados value.

The Houston Astros remain interested in re-signing their longtime third baseman, though nothing is guaranteed.

Willy Adames, the best free-agent shortstop, will also come into play.

Adames prefers to stay at shortstop but (similar to Arenado) is willing to switch positions if he gets a strong offer from a contender.

Other players, such as the Philadelphia Phillies Alec Bohm , might also become available via trade within the coming weeks.

St.

Louis is expected to field interest in at least two other players.

Early offseason speculation hinted at Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray being moved after the Cardinals announced their intentions to step back from contention next season.

However, both expressed a desire to remain with the organization, with Contreras accepting a position change to first base as well.

Two other possible trade pieces remain on the block: Steven Matz and Ryan Helsley .

Matzs case to be traded is pretty standard.

He is in the final year of a four-year, $44 million deal, though he has missed parts of the past three seasons with injuries.

Unlike the position-player market, the starting-pitching market has already begun to establish itself.

Matz profiles near the middle tier, and some clarity regarding that value was provided when Matthew Boyd inked a two-year, $29 million deal with the Chicago Cubs on Monday.

The Cardinals are inclined to trade Matz to create room in their rotation for some of their pitching prospects, with Gray, Erick Fedde and Miles Mikolas already accounting for three spots.

Helsleys case is much less cut and dried.

The Cardinals are weighing whether to trade their closer and are likely to avoid a definitive decision until the Winter Meetings, if not longer.

Helsley, MLBs league leader in saves last year, is in the final year of arbitration and will be a free agent after the 2025 season.

The Cardinals will be busy leading up to the Winter Meetings, but no impending decision carries as much weight as what to do with Arenado.

Expect things to move more quickly in that regard over the next few weeks.

(Photo: John Fisher / Getty Images).

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