What we've learned about the Maple Leafs at the quarter mark of the season

I dont think many of us had Auston Matthews goes out of the lineup and the Maple Leafs go on a 6-1-0 run on our bingo card for how the first month and a half of the season would go.

But its been that kind of an unpredictable year so far in Toronto.

Were now at the 20-game mark, a quarter of the way through the season, so its a good time to take stock of where the Leafs are at through the highs (their current hot streak) and lows (a 3-4-2 stretch prior to that) of their season.

Advertisement Lets dig into some of the numbers and trends.

1.

Goaltending is the least of their issues After Joseph Woll shut out the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday, the Leafs now have the fifth-best save percentage (.914) and second-best five-on-five save percentage (.938) in the NHL .

Few would have predicted that coming into the season given they had one of the least experienced tandems in the league.

And especially considering Woll missed the start of the campaign due to injury.

Not only have Anthony Stolarz and Woll been excellent overall, theyve led the Leafs to the third-biggest save percentage improvement in the NHL this season.

It remains a little understated how much goaltending hurt this team last season.

Jumping from 25th up to fifth is absolutely massive, as they would have allowed another 12 goals at this point with last years save percentage.

That would drop them to a negative goal differential and a much poorer record.

Better defensive play is part of the story, as theyve risen from 17th to 10th in quality of scoring chances allowed.

But the Leafs goals saved above expected, which measures goaltending independent of defensive play, is sky-high largely thanks to Stolarz, who sits fourth overall in that stat so far this season.

There very well could be some regression in net the rest of the way, as only one team ( Winnipeg ) managed a team save percentage last season as high as where Toronto is now.

But the bulk of this improvement is real.

2.

Theyve become elite on the PK Take a bow, Lane Lambert.

I didnt think anyone predicted the Leafs would suddenly become an elite squad while shorthanded this offseason under the new associate coach, but theyre currently seventh in the NHL with a kill rate of nearly 85 percent.

A Leafs team has finished that high or better just once since 2002-03, way back in the dead puck era, when Robert Svehla and Alyn McCauley were getting it done on a ridiculous 87 percent PK.

Advertisement The interesting thing is the shorthanded improvement this season is being driven much more by the system and defensive play than the goalies.

The Leafs team save percentage down a man is actually fairly similar to last season, but their expected goals against has been cut by more than 20 percent.

Again, as with overall team save percentage, thats one of the biggest improvements across the league.

When it comes to the systemic part of it, regular Leaf Report analyst Frankie Corrado offered up this great video that explains the shift Lambert has Torontos PKers making.

How different is the Leafs PK from last year to this year? @TSNHockey pic.twitter.com/cDbI2aKTK2 Frank Corrado (@frankcorrado22) October 18, 2024 Which players have been driving the improvement within that new system? Steven Lorentz stands out the most, as the Leafs are allowing just 4.99 expected goals against per 60 minutes shorthanded with him on the ice.

That sits fourth best leaguewide among all forwards who have killed at least 30 minutes so far this season.

Last season the Leafs only had one player under 7.50 in that category, and some of their most used players like TJ Brodie (9.17), David Kampf (8.62) and Mark Giordano (8.46) were getting crushed on the PK.

Having the Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe pair take on the bulk of the minutes instead of the mediocre D group they used last year has also been huge.

And, when healthy, Matthews was performing very well down a man, too.

Steven Lorentz on blocking three shots in the same spot last night, including two on the same shift "I was channelling my inner Timmy Brent there ...

It definitely didnt feel too good, but its always worth it when the guys come through." Foot a little swollen today https://t.co/MD4OG9w8jk Mark Masters (@markhmasters) November 21, 2024 3.

The offence remains a work in progress The Leafs currently have the eighth-best record in the NHL and are on pace to finish with 4.6 more points than last season, a decent bump given the injuries theyve dealt with.

I doubt thatll be enough to win the Atlantic Division, but it should be good for home ice in the first round.

And at least keep them close to the defending champion Florida Panthers , who are the team to beat.

Advertisement The fact the Leafs have done that while producing only the 16th most goals in the league is pretty hard to believe.

The combination of the two sections above great goaltending and great penalty killing plus the Tanev factor have meant the Leafs defensive gains have overcome their offensive shortcomings so far.

Theres certainly room for improvement in a lot of offensive categories, however, especially if you look at some of the underlying numbers.

The Leafs are 23rd in shot attempts at even strength, for example, and 17th in shots for.

In both areas, theyre giving up more than theyre generating, an indication that their ability to maintain zone time has been meh at best.

They fare slightly better on expected goals and scoring chances, so the quality of what theyre producing is better than the quantity, which is great.

But theres not really any offensive metric where they are well above average right now.

Like the PK, some of this is systems (as Justin Bourne laid out nicely recently ) and some of this is personnel.

But you can particularly see it if you look at the chance generation for the bottom-six forwards, many of whom arent producing anything under new coach Craig Berubes north-south, dump-and-chase approach.

For context: The average NHL team generates roughly 2.55 expected goals per 60 minutes at even strength.

But when the Leafs have someone like Kampf on the ice, theyre generating just 1.47, the fourth-worst mark of any forward in the league (minimum 100 minutes played).

Thats old-school enforcer territory.

Other players well below the average include Pontus Holmberg (seventh worst in the league), Lorentz (25th worst), Ryan Reaves (29th), Nick Robertson (35th), Bobby McMann and Max Domi .

Thats a ton of passengers, players who in some cases are on the ice for 40 percent fewer chances than a break-even comparable would be.

Its hard to believe its even possible for one team to have five of the NHLs 35 most impotent forwards, but thats where Toronto is at with its bottom six.

Advertisement Its hard to win if half your forward group cant produce more than an expected goal every four games.

The Leafs have already been missing Matthews (obviously) and Max Pacioretty in this department, and any games Matthew Knies misses will hurt deeply, too, given hes been one of their most dangerous players (3.15 expected goals per 60).

But they do have other options, and the Vegas game showed why they need to try and use them and sit some of the underperformers.

Speaking of which ...

4.

The kids are all right We dont want to go too wacky over small sample sizes and, to use Ron Wilsons famous phrasing, build statues for young players before theyre ready for such accolades.

But Wednesdays win was certainly fun to watch thanks to the presence of Fraser Minten and Nikita Grebenkin .

Both of them have been excellent with the Marlies so far in their first season as North American pros, and both showed enough against one of the best teams in the Western Conference that they deserve more time with the big club.

Not that the Leafs have a ton of choice, what with as many as seven forwards out if Knies cant play on Sunday against the Utah Hockey Club .

But both Minten and Grebenkin (and to a lesser extent Alex Steeves ) all looked far more dangerous than half of Torontos regular forwards have all season.

You dont want to rush anyone, but the good news is both players are on entry-level deals and can go up and down to the AHL as needed.

Minten and Grebenkin are young, yes, but they have good heads on their shoulders; if they continue to play well, and end up getting into 15 or 20 games the rest of the way, thats nothing but a big positive for the organization heading into another pivotal postseason.

It may also give the front office and coaching staff more confidence when it comes time to start moving out some of the underperformers .

Advertisement At the very least, the competition should be wide open for forward spots down the lineup.

Regardless of contractual status, age or experience, they need to give everyone a chance to show if they can produce or not.

And let the best players win the jobs.

(Photo of Joseph Woll: John E.

Sokolowski / Imagn Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.