16 stats: Connor Bedard's linemates, Rangers' top-6 issues, Pierre-Luc Dubois' bounce-back

It made perfect sense for the Blackhawks to sign Teuvo Teravainen and Tyler Bertuzzi during the offseason.

It makes a lot less sense now seeing how theyve used them.

Both players felt like the kind of good stop-gap top-six talents who would be able to give Connor Bedard the support he was seriously lacking in his rookie season.

They felt like perfect fits, too, with Teravainen as the defensively conscious playmaker and Bertuzzi as the gritty worker bee.

Advertisement A creative scorer, a responsible playmaker and an effective grinder should be line chemistry heaven, right? It is for most top teams, but the Blackhawks themselves wouldnt really know that trio has played for a grand total of 40 seconds this season.

To Chicagos credit, the Blackhawks started with a line that had a similar, albeit lesser, mix with Nick Foligno in Bertuzzis place.

That line really clicked with 59 percent of expected goals while outscoring opponents 4-3 only for the team to abandon it.

For reference, the Blackhawks didnt have a single line last year that played over 50 minutes and had an expected goal rate above 54 percent.

Thats the point where Bedard started to struggle and the team tried seemingly every combination the Blackhawks have had six straight games where Bedard played with different linemates to get him going.

Except the one that should work and the one that already did work, of course.

In between all that, Bedard has also taken some spare shifts here and there with Bertuzzi and Taylor Hall , another strong combination of grit and playmaking skill.

They had an 85 percent xG together and scored a goal in 12 sporadic minutes, but havent actually taken a regular shift together.

Play Bedard with the teams best offensive players on a line with someone who can do the dirty work, and he looks good.

Really good.

Its not a novel concept and only takes one look around the league to see how other top lines anchored by a superstar are built.

Theres almost always a complementarily skilled star next to him with an elite grinder rounding things out.

Chicago may not have another star, but the Blackhawks do have offensively-minded talent that should fit Bedards game well.

For whatever reason, the Blackhawks have actively avoided that tried-and-true formula and its been to Bedards detriment.

Advertisement Theres one other important factor to Bedards success: keeping him away from the toughest defensive assignments that he floundered in last season.

For now anyway.

The Blackhawks seemingly recognized that last year by creating an actually strong shutdown line anchored by Jason Dickinson , one that was able to alleviate some of the defensive pressure off Bedard and take on tough minutes.

They started the season that way too until Tuesday night when the Bedard linemate wheel spun again and landed on Dickinson, a move that makes it really feel like the Blackhawks coaching staff has lost the plot.

Do Bedard and Dickinson work together? Yes.

We saw it last year and we saw it again on Tuesday night when Bedard set up Dickinson for two goals and the line dominated at five-on-five.

The problem is that it combines two opposing leaders (Bedard as the teams offensive anchor and Dickinson as the defensive one), leaving the top line without much of an identity and the rest of the lineup looking fairly listless.

It puts more defensive burden on Bedard and more offensive pressure on Dickinson, worlds neither are particularly well suited for.

The pair works because its two good players, but it leaves a weird mix otherwise especially with the teams lack of centers available.

After Dickinson, the team used Foligno, Ryan Donato and Lukas Reichel down the middle on Tuesday.

Thats ugly (and avoidable) stuff.

None of this is particularly groundbreaking and thats what makes it so frustrating.

We were supposed to be treated to a big Bedard breakout in his sophomore year.

Instead, it feels like the Blackhawks, against their own best interest, have done everything in their power to limit that from happening.

Their reward for it is a spot in the leagues basement.

16 stats 1.

Macklin Celebrini s growing pains Its getting harder each year for teenagers to really thrive in the NHL , especially with how putrid some of their landing spots are.

Bedard learned that in his rookie year and Celebrini is learning it in his.

To his credit, Celebrini has four goals and five points in eight games to start his career, but like Bedards rookie campaign, theres a lot to be desired defensively.

Right now Celebrini ranks as one of the worst Sharks forwards in his on-ice chance and shot rates and that stems entirely from his work in his own zone.

Relative to teammates, the Sharks are allowing 7.5 more shot attempts and 0.69 more expected goals against with Celebrini on the ice so far.

Celebrini will get there eventually and he has played tougher minutes than he arguably should, but its another lesson that even the best prospects need some time to figure out the best league in the world.

2.

Dustin Wolf : Calder Trophy favorite Were 19 games in and Calgary is still in a playoff spot.

The Flames chances of winning the lottery have dropped from six percent to two percent as a result and theres one major culprit: Wolf.

The rookie goaltender has a .925 save percentage in 10 games this season and has already saved 8.2 goals above expected, good for ninth in the league.

Thats sandwiched between Juuse Saros and Andrei Vasilevskiy good company to keep.

Advertisement Wolf looks as dominant as he did in the AHL and if we were voting for the Calder after the first quarter, hed be my pick.

3.

Trevor Zegras needs a change of scenery In 18 games this year, Zegras has just six points, 42 percent of expected goals and is getting outscored 12-7.

All significant declines from an already trying year last season leads to a minus-2.0 Net Rating to start the year, one of the 50 worst marks in the league.

It really just doesnt feel like its working for him in Anaheim.

4.

The Canucks usage problem on defense Spot the problem.

Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek GF%: 63.1% xGF%: 61.2% Tyler Myers and Carson Soucy GF%: 26.5% xGF%: 42.0% Erik Brannstrom and Vincent Desharnais GF%: 86.7% xGF%: 69.0% Two pairs are working tremendously right now for the Canucks and the other isnt.

Theres a reason for the discrepancy and part of it comes down to usage.

Myers and Soucy take on the teams toughest minutes while also getting a much larger share of defensive zone starts.

Its a difficult role that helps the other two pairs flourish, but its clear the balance is off.

If a teams shutdown pair is getting outscored by a 3-to-1 margin while being badly out-chanced, its probably not working.

The Myers-Soucy pair is not working.

Theres hope there given how the duo looked last season with respectably mid numbers given their role.

But their numbers look far from respectable right now.

If the Canucks are set on keeping these pairs as constructed, a better balance with how each pair is used might be in order.

Myers and Soucy are struggling under the burden while the other two pairs both look like they can take on more responsibility.

5.

Devon Toews rough start Things will get better for the Avalanche as they get healthier, but they also need their best players to be at their best.

Most of the core is there with the exception of Toews, who has had a tough start to the year.

His 49 percent xG rate is second last among Avalanche blueliners and eight percentage points behind Cale Makar s, his most frequent partner.

Thats a troubling difference given how much the duo plays together.

For the year, Toews currently has a minus-1.2 Net Rating which ranks 144th among defensemen.

Advertisement 6.

The return of Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston ? Leave it to Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston to have arguably their best games of the season on the day I was about to write that I was starting to worry about them.

Going into Wednesdays game against San Jose, neither player was scoring, shooting, or play-driving anywhere close to their usual degree.

Dallas may have been outscoring teams with both players on the ice, but it was hard to credit either Robertson or Johnston considering what they individually delivered.

Its been an especially disappointing start for what was supposed to be a bounce-back for Robertson and a breakthrough for Johnston.

All is not forgiven just yet, but a multi-point effort from the duo while dominating at five-on-five might be the spark the pair needs to get going.

In a star-studded West, the Stars need their stars at their best.

Heres hoping Robertson and Johnstons effort against the Sharks is a sign of things to come.

7.

Predators still havent found what theyre looking for Nashville s playoff hopes are already slim after a disastrous start, but we know this team has the ability to get hot and go streaking after last seasons canceled U2 concert.

For those at home comparing, the teams current hole is a fair bit deeper than the one they faced on February 15 after losing 9-2 to the Stars.

While Nashville had less runway remaining at the time, its record was better (85-point pace then compared to 65-point pace now) which put the Predators playoff chances at 18 percent.

Thats more than double the teams current odds of eight percent.

If any team can go on a scorching hot run, its the Predators.

But while eight percent isnt insurmountable, its a massive hole even a canceled concert catalyst would struggle to fix.

8.

Predators positive on special teams A lot has gone wrong for the Predators this season, but at the very least both of the teams special teams units have looked pretty strong.

Nashville has a top-10 power play and is third in generating chances this season.

On the penalty kill, the power of Juuse Saros has the team allowing just 3.5 goals against per 60, which leads the league.

Advertisement If the Predators could just figure things out at five-on-five they might be able to salvage this season.

Thats a big if when the team ranks 23rd in expected goals percentage.

9.

Jets long-range regression One early sign of impending regression is long-range shooting percentage.

Not that many of us need any reminder that a 16-3-0 team is going to fall back to earth, but its still interesting to note how sharp Winnipegs shooting has been from distance.

Based on NHL EDGE data, the Jets scored on 3.2 percent of their long-range shots last season while the leagues best team was at 5.3 percent.

This year theyre scoring on 9.8 percent of their long-range shots, over three percentage points more than the next-best team.

10.

Mikhail Sergachev proving hes No.

1 in Utah Few players saw their stock fall harder in 2023-24 than Mikhail Sergachev.

In 2022-23 he looked like Tampa Bay s future No.

1, scoring 64 points and driving play extremely well in a tough-minute role.

He looked like a do-it-all stud he just couldnt follow it up.

Everything went wrong last season on the ice ...

and that was before a major injury sidelined him for the rest of the season.

That inconsistency and injury made it difficult to know what exactly Sergachev was heading into the 2024-25 season.

Utah made a big bet that he was still the No.

1 stud he looked like he was on the path to becoming in 2023, while many in the game were a lot more skeptical.

Early returns suggest Utah made a solid bet; Sergachev is delivering.

In a tough-minute role, Sergachev is once again doing it all earning 53 percent of expected goals so far and 55 percent of actual goals, both well ahead of what the team is otherwise doing.

Thats especially impressive given the difficulty of his minutes, as is his 55-point pace.

Sergachevs plus-2.5 Net Rating currently ranks 27th among all defensemen and it feels like theres room for him to climb the ranks.

11.

Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak eating difficult minutes No team has had a more arduous schedule to start the season than the Lightning.

The average opponent that Tampa Bay has faced has a plus-13 Net Rating which leads the league.

Thats put an especially difficult strain on the teams shutdown pair of McDonagh and Cernak, who have had to face the absolute toughest minutes in the league.

Their average opponent has had an Offensive Rating of plus-3.3 which makes their defensive work even more impressive than it already is.

In 232 minutes together, the duo has been on the ice for just 2.37 xGA per 60 and 0.99 GA per 60 both very stingy marks.

Advertisement 12.

Top-six worries in New York The Rangers underlying numbers look more formidable than usual, but thats being entirely driven by the bottom six all of whom rank ahead of the teams top six in both xG and goals this season.

Thats good news for the teams depth, but the stars not shining at five-on-five is not ideal.

Across the board, all five returning members of the top six have seen considerable drops at five-on-five compared to last season.

Rangers big five 2023-24 xG with: 51.2 percent Goals with: 52.8 percent xG without: 44.9 percent Goals without: 44.3 percent Rangers big five 2024-25 xG with: 49.3 percent Goals with: 45.4 percent xG without: 60.5 percent Goals without: 83.1 percent Mika Zibanejad s line has been an especially big problem here with Zibanejads xG percentage dropping to 44 percent on the season, one of the worst marks on the team.

The Rangers have paid the price for it on the scoreboard, too, being outscored by a 13-8 margin.

That effect has at least been recognized by the coaching staff to the point that it may actually be unfair to call Zibanejads line the teams second line.

His minutes at five-on-five have been cut to 11.7 per game this year, eighth among forwards on the team and down from 13.1 per game last year.

13.

Rangers soft schedule What makes all that especially worrying? The Rangers have had the second easiest schedule so far with an average opponent Net Rating of minus-11.

Of New Yorks 17 games, only six have come against likely playoff teams, where the Rangers have generally struggled.

Theyre taking care of business against the leagues weakerthans, but theyll need to step it up against the better teams going forward.

The five-on-five divide is noteworthy.

Rangers vs.

above-average teams (3-3-0) xG: 40.1 percent Goals: 40.7 percent Advertisement Rangers vs.

below-average teams (9-1-1) xG: 61.0 percent Goals: 69.3 percent 14.

Capitals suddenly star-studded core The Capitals currently have five players in the top 20 for Net Rating and three in the top 10: Dylan Strome , Alex Ovechkin , John Carlson , Rasmus Sandin and Connor McMichael .

Hard to imagine many saw that coming.

While its unlikely they all maintain that pace (Strome and Ovechkins on-ice shooting percentage is right around 20 percent), its a helluva start for a team that looked incredibly short on star power going into the season.

The growth of Strome and breakthroughs from Sandin and McMichael if sustained could give this team some unexpected staying power.

15.

Pierre-Luc Dubois bounce-back Somewhat lost amidst all the other great stories coming out of Washington is the resurgence of Dubois at five-on-five.

Hes scoring 2.35 points per 60 which is way up from the 1.75 average hes been at the prior two seasons.

Thats despite not having a five-on-five goal, though thats not for a lack of trying as his individual expected goal rate is also up from 0.75 last year to 1.09 this year.

That jump is entirely a result of finding more dangerous areas, too, as his shot rate has actually dropped from 6.2 per 60 to 5.5.

That means more dangerous shots with an expected shooting percentage of 19.8 percent vs.

12.1 percent last season.

More impressive for Dubois is what hes providing as a two-way shutdown center.

The Capitals are earning 60 percent of the expected goals with Dubois on the ice, one of the best marks on the team.

Relative to teammates, his plus-0.34 per 60 impact would be a career high a strong effort at both ends of the ice that represents a return to form toward the possession driver he was earlier in his career.

That hes doing all that taking on the toughest assignments every night is whats putting Dubois back on the map.

Hes currently on pace for a plus-13 Net Rating, up from minus-0.9 last year.

16.

Red Wings sputtering offense I didnt have high hopes for the Red Wings going into the season, but even I couldnt fathom just how anemic they would look offensively.

Through 18 games the Red Wings are generating just 2.06 xGF per 60 and have scored only 1.48 GF per 60.

The former is the absolute worst mark in the league and the latter isnt far off.

Advertisement Just how bad is it in Detroit? At five-on-five the Red Wings are generating close to the same amount of offense as the 2019-20 version the one that played at a 45-point pace.

That team actually scored more often.

Ouch.

Its shaping up to be a long season in Motown.

Data via Evolving Hockey, Hockey Stat Cards, Natural Stat Trick and NHL (Top photo of Connor Bedard and Jason Dickinson: Melissa Tamez / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.