College Football Playoff stock watch: Will the SEC get only 3 teams in?

Editors note: This article is part of the College Football Stock Watch series, breaking down which teams are rising and falling in the Playoff race.

The SEC has dominated college football for the past two decades, and its once again the best conference in 2024.

But after a disastrous Week 13 , the conference might get only three teams into the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff .

That didnt seem possible at the beginning of the year.

Heck, it didnt seem possible just last week.

But the problem with having the best conference in the country (and perhaps having no elite teams) is anything can happen on any given Saturday.

And thats where we have to start our stock watch for this week.

As always, all odds are based on my College Football Playoff projections model .

GO DEEPER College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Indiana hangs on as Alabama, Ole Miss fall out Stock down The conversation surrounding the CFP last week was that the SEC was not going to get enough credit for how tough its schedules are and the result was going to be teams getting left out or having to go on the road in the first round to a Big Ten school or Notre Dame .

This week, however, the SEC is in desperate need of help.

Advertisement There is no one to blame but the teams themselves, really.

Alabama lost by 21 points to 5-5 Oklahoma and Ole Miss lost to 5-5 Florida , while Texas A&M lost to 4-6 Auburn .

Although those three SEC teams would likely be favored against a 5-5 Big Ten, ACC or Big 12 team, they arent that much better.

For comparison, Penn State beat 6-4 Minnesota by one point and my projections wouldnt have the Gophers as more than a field goal underdog to the three aforementioned SEC teams.

At the end of the day, winning matters, and you have to find a way.

Penn State did it .

Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M didnt.

GO DEEPER SEC vibes rankings: What in the world just happened? My projections have three SEC teams making the field on average.

The most likely three are Texas , Georgia and Tennessee .

Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and South Carolina are the other teams with a shot though my projections dont have any of those teams greater than 13 percent, including South Carolina at only 2 percent.

Texas A&M still has a chance to get in by winning the SEC title, but it would need to beat Texas and Georgia to do so.

Maybe this creates changes in future Playoff formats, but as it stands right now, the SEC is unlikely to be happy with its first 12-team College Football Playoff representation.

Stock neutral The Hoosiers had a fantastic start to their top-five showdown with Ohio State .

They forced a three-and-out on defense, marched right down the field and scored a touchdown, and then had a goal line stand.

Unfortunately for Indiana, everything after that was mostly a disaster.

The offense couldnt do anything against Ohio State s defense the rest of the game and two costly special teams blunders resulted in 14 points.

To no ones surprise, Indiana didnt quite have the horses to stick with Ohio State, especially on the road.

If there were any bright spots, the defense played well enough that if the offense and special teams showed any life, Indiana might have had a punchers chance.

The Hoosiers couldnt get a lot of stops, but they did a good job of limiting explosive plays, so a couple of bounces going their way could have made things interesting.

Advertisement The real reason theyre in this neutral category is that because of all the chaos in the SEC, Indiana still has a great shot at making the College Football Playoff despite getting run out of Ohio Stadium.

In fact, Indianas Playoff odds actually rose because of all the losses elsewhere.

After Mondays updates , Indiana has a 95 percent chance to make the Playoff and actually still has an outside shot at hosting a first round-game.

My projections think the Hoosiers will be ranked ahead of Tennessee in Tuesdays rankings.

Even if they do fall below the Volunteers, they have to feel good about their chances of getting an at-large bid.

All that stands in the way is rival Purdue , which is 1-10.

GO DEEPER Field being reshaped in day shows beauty of 12 teams: College Football Playoff Bubble Watch Stock up Another team from Indiana was a beneficiary of the SECs problems on Saturday but unlike the Hoosiers, Notre Dame destroyed its ranked opponent .

Its hard to not be impressed with Notre Dames body of work outside of whatever happened on Sept.

7 against Northern Illinois .

I did spend most of this year thinking the committee would punish Notre Dame for that loss, but it hasnt really had a chance because the Irish keep winning in dominant fashion.

Sure, the punishment could occur if the Irish lose to USC on Saturday, but if they handle USC, I think there is a chance they jump Penn State in the CFP rankings.

GO DEEPER Sampson: Notre Dame showing no signs of letting up on ruthless march to the Playoff What happens if the Irish are upset by the Trojans? Notre Dame would likely fall below Indiana but probably stay ahead of SMU .

Thats essentially the worry for Notre Dame at this point.

How far it falls would determine its fate, and Im not sure Notre Dame would fall off a cliff with a loss to USC.

Right now, my projections have Notre Dame projected as the No.

8 seed and hosting Indiana.

They now have a 99 percent chance to make the Playoff and a 73 percent chance to host a first-round game (remember, the Irish are not eligible for a bye, which go to the top-ranked conference champions).

Whats next? One nice thing about having a College Football Playoff simulator is that I can see how a teams Playoff odds would be affected by a win or a loss in any given game of the season.

So, with Rivalry Week upon us, lets check in on some teams that arent quite locks to make the CFP and see how their Playoff odds might be affected by the results of this weekend: Texas (99% to make the CFP) at Texas A&M (12%): The winner will play Georgia for the SEC title .

Though Texas is considered a virtual lock to make the Playoff regardless of what happens in College Station, Texas A&Ms odds would rise to 34 percent with a win and it would have no chance with a loss.

Advertisement Georgia Tech at Georgia (95%): Georgia has clinched a spot in the SEC title game, but a third loss to Georgia Tech would cause its odds to slip to 50 percent.

Itll rise to over 99 percent with a win.

Notre Dame (99%) at USC: The Irish are guaranteed to be in with a win and would still have a 96 percent chance with a loss.

Miami (94%) at Syracuse: Miami needs to win to clinch a spot in the ACC title game against SMU.

Its Playoff odds would rise past 99 percent with a win and fall to 75 percent with a loss.

Purdue at Indiana (95%): The Hoosiers would rise past 99 percent with a win and plummet to 20 percent with a loss.

Tennessee (70%) at Vanderbilt: The Vols can rise to 95 percent with a win but would have less than a 1 percent chance if they lose.

California at SMU (68%): SMU would rise to 84 percent with a win and fall to 30 percent with a loss.

Auburn at Alabama (13%): With three losses already, Alabama would stay at 13 percent with a win and have no chance with a loss.

Mississippi State at Ole Miss (9%): Like Alabama, Ole Miss odds wouldnt change with a win, but it would be totally out with a loss.

South Carolina (2%) at Clemson (42%): The three-loss Gamecocks are a long shot regardless and would stay at 2 percent with a win.

Clemson would move to 53 percent with a win.

If it loses, it has a 16 percent chance, needing a Miami loss to Syracuse to get to the ACC title game, where it would need to beat SMU.

Oregon (vs.

Washington ), Ohio State (vs.

Michigan ) and Penn State (vs.

Maryland ) would all stay over 99 percent with a loss.

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(Photo of Billy Napier and Lane Kiffin: James Gilbert / Getty Images).

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