NHL concern-o-meter: Red Wings' defensive woes, Hurricanes' goalie health and more

From bad to worse, the Pittsburgh Penguins are finding new lows in the Sidney Crosby era.

Pittsburgh managed to get back into the win column last Saturday night with a shootout win over the Sharks after blowing a 3-0 lead earlier that game.

The team followed it up with a 3-2 overtime loss to the Lightning , where they blew a multi-goal lead to lose for the fifth time this season.

Advertisement And then came this past weekend: A 4-1 loss to the Jets , in which the Penguins gave up over 80 percent of the expected goal share, and a 6-1 loss to Utah, in which they mustered a sub-34 percent expected goal rate.

The Penguins have been begging us to dust off the concern-o-meterTM all season.

With a 10/10 reading on our scale, its time for management to be realistic about this teams trajectory and start carving a new path forward .

But theyre far from the only team on our radar.

The Bruins were sounding early alarms after their disappointing start, but at least they are actively trying to turn things around keeping them off the map, for now.

Still, concerning trends are emerging elsewhere as American Thanksgiving approaches and teams pass the quarter mark of the season.

The Red Wings defense and penalty kill Concern-o-meter: 9/10 After the Red Wings traded Jake Walman , it seemed like another shoe would drop.

There had to be a splash waiting in the wings to solidify this roster.

Instead, the team made a few low-key signings like Tyler Motte , Erik Gustafsson , Vladimir Tarasenko and Cam Talbot .

But none of them moved the needle.

Detroit isnt much better defensively, and none of these players bring enough offense to offset that.

And now the team is dealing with the consequences.

Detroits five-on-five defense has completely tanked over the last stretch of play despite matchups against the Ducks , Penguins, Sharks, Islanders and Bruins , who have all struggled.

And the team isnt generating nearly enough offensively to make up for it.

But the most glaring flaw of this team is its short-handed play.

And it isnt anything new.

Detroit allowed one of the highest rates of shots and expected goals against on the penalty kill last season, its goaltenders just made more timely saves to keep the team afloat.

Advertisement This year, the Red Wings are even worse while short-handed.

Theyre bleeding shots and quality chances, conceding 10.8 expected goals against per 60.

Only the Ducks give up more on the penalty kill.

But no one allows a higher rate of goals against.

Detroits 13.4 goals against per 60 is the worst mark of the analytics era right now.

As flawed as the roster may be, and as much as the Yzerplan seems to have lost its direction, the coaching comes under the microscope here.

Bob Boughner runs the penalty kill and has had success in this position before just take his time in San Jose between 2015 and 2017.

So has head coach Derek Lalonde, who directed a Stanley Cup-caliber penalty kill in Tampa Bay.

There are legitimate tactical concerns, from how the team plays within its structure to a lack of adjustment when power plays pressure down low.

And over the last year-plus, the coaches dont seem to have an answer on how to fix it.

Instead, theyre asking their goaltenders to try and withstand the chaos of a barrage of scoring chances right from the home plate area.

The pressure is mounting for the Red Wings to finally turn the corner, but that cant happen until their play in their own zone especially while short-handed starts to improve.

The disappointing Predators Concern-o-meter: 8/10 As bad as the Red Wings are this season, the award for the most disappointing team through the first quarter of the season goes to Nashville.

General manager Barry Trotz was hyped up for his aggressive offseason.

The team extended Juuse Saros and made several signings to build off of their impressive turnaround last season.

Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault were signed to punch up the top six, and Brady Skjei was brought in to replace Ryan McDonagh .

But the Predators have fallen flat with a bottom-five standing and just an 11 percent chance of reaching the playoffs down from their preseason projection of 75 percent.

Advertisement The Predators start doesnt fall solely on some of their new additions, but their shortcomings have been especially noticeable even after theyve had time to acclimate to their new surroundings.

Marchessault finally earned his first five-on-five point for Nashville on Saturday against the Jets in his 21st game of the season.

Stamkos is scoring at a career-low rate with 1.73 points per 60, a dip from his prior low of 2.34 in 2008-09.

And Skjei has been a wreck defensively despite not being tasked with the toughest burden in terms of offensive competition.

Nashville has allowed 0.45 more expected goals per 60, with Skjei on the ice at five-on-five relative to his teammates and an even higher rate of goals against.

Pairing him with Roman Josi was a failure, as the team earned just a 44 percent expected goal rate and got outscored 14-6 at five-on-five.

And those struggles have continued when paired with Luke Schenn and Alexandre Carrier .

So, it begs the question of just how much of his success over the last couple of seasons should be credited to the Hurricanes systems.

While Skjeis game is starting to trend up after his brutal start, there are still some serious issues in Nashville.

Special teams may be a strength for the Predators, but the majority of the game is played at five-on-five.

The team is underwhelming on both ends of the ice and is failing to convert on their chances.

As much as Trotz can threaten a rebuild, the reality is that the team committed to this window with their offseason signings.

So now they have to find a way to turn it around, and a canceled U2 concert may not be enough this time.

The Lindgren-Trouba pairing Concern-o-meter: 7.5/10 When Ryan Lindgren made his season debut, the Rangers started tinkering with all three of their defense pairs to fit the lefty back on the top pair.

But chaos ensued pretty quickly, with all three pairs showing their flaws.

KAndre Miller and Jacob Trouba got crushed in 77 five-on-five minutes, getting outscored 7-0 and earning a sub-29 percent expected goal rate.

A Braden Schneider-Victor Mancini third pair started to look out of their depths.

And Lindgren looked over-leveraged alongside his mainstay partner of the last few years, Adam Fox .

So the Rangers went back to two pairs that worked in the early going.

Fox and Miller have sparkling numbers across their time together, with a 66 percent expected goal rate and an 11-7 edge in scoring.

Schneider and Zac Jones make for a third pair that thrives in sheltered minutes.

Advertisement But that leaves a problem in the middle a second pair of Lindgren and Trouba, who shoulder some of the toughest minutes.

There arent a ton of red flags on the surface a 51 expected goal rate and plus-one goal differential are pretty passable for a pair tasked with matchup minutes.

But theyve become the weak point of the Rangers defense, especially when it comes to defending the rush.

That was put on display against both Calgary and Edmonton .

It leaves the Rangers in a tough situation.

The coaches can break up two pairs they know work and try to maximize Lindgren and Trouba elsewhere.

Or they need to get back to the drawing board from a tactical or deployment standpoint.

Elite goaltending can cover a lot, but the team shouldnt be this exposed against top competition.

The Hurricanes goalie injuries Concern-o-meter: 6.5/10 The Hurricanes were already short-handed heading into Saturday night, with Frederik Andersen sidelined for at least another six weeks.

And now the team may be without Pyotr Kochetkov , who was injured in overtime against the Blue Jackets .

Kochetkov hasnt been a game-breaker in a starting capacity so far he has given the Hurricanes a chance to win with a quality start in seven of his 13 appearances so far.

But thats all the team needs.

The Canes dont need elite goaltending to thrive.

They have a potent offense and are one of the stingiest teams defensively.

But it helps to have at least one NHL-caliber goalie in a starting capacity.

If Kochetkov is out for an extended period, the Hurricanes have to hope that the strength in their systems can withstand this hurdle.

Spencer Martin has been fine as the Canes backup over the last year, but his track record in an expanded role is less than encouraging (see: Vancouver 2022-23).

Yaniv Perets is up from Chicago, too.

But if they arent up to the task, management may have to look elsewhere, maybe to the trade market for someone like Mackenzie Blackwood.

Until there is clarity on Kochetkovs timeline (he is out indefinitely in concussion protocol ), this stands at a 6.5 with the potential to rise.

Even if he is out short-term, this next stretch could be daunting considering the firepower of upcoming opponents like the Rangers, Panthers and Avalanche .

Advertisement The Ducks offense Concern-o-meter: 6/10 Defense was an obvious priority in Anaheim after a historically bad 2022-23.

The team had the highest expected and actual goal rate against of the analytics era, and head coach Greg Cronin was brought in to help fix that in 2023-24.

The Ducks were still bad defensively after Year 1 of Cronin, but not nearly to the same degree the year prior.

Sometimes, emphasizing defensive structure comes at a cost offense.

And that seems to be the case through the first quarter of the 2024-25 season.

Anaheim ranks third-to-last in expected and actual goal generation at five-on-five this year, and the power play isnt much better despite having more reinforcements from last year.

The Ducks have a full season of Leo Carlsson , a healthy Trevor Zegras and Cutter Gauthier .

Plus, they should be benefiting from another year of progression from players like Pavel Mintyukov , Olen Zellweger and even Mason McTavish .

The Ducks have to find new ways to generate offense while improving their defensive structure.

That is all a part of the process and the long-term picture.

At the same time, the team should also be harnessing and promoting the creativity that the young guns on this roster bring otherwise, it could stall what should be a great strength of this team for years to come.

Unstable goaltending in Colorado Concern-o-meter: 6/10 Heading into Monday nights matchups, the Avalanche allowed a league-high 12.5 goals above expected.

Its far from ideal for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations and opposite of some of their biggest rivals.

The Stars goaltending has saved a combined 14.8 goals above expected, and Winnipeg isnt far behind at 13.1 The Avalanche arent a leaky team defensively, either.

They rank in the top 10 in shot and expected goal suppression both at five-on-five and while short-handed.

The goaltending just hasnt responded well enough to their workload.

It starts with Alexandar Georgiev , who is a wild card in net.

He got off to a disastrous start, allowing a combined 7.9 goals above expected through his first three games.

November has been a bit kinder, with strong performances against the Jets and Predators and then a fantastic start against the Capitals on Friday night.

But consistency is a major issue because even between those strong performances, he has fallen back below average.

Through 12 games, Georgiev has only three quality starts.

And Justus Annunen hasnt made a strong enough case to start more games, either.

Advertisement Colorado has made it far without perfect goaltending just look back to their Stanley Cup run when Darcy Kuemper s game was seemingly affected by injury, or even last years postseason when Georgiev rounded into form after a tough Game 1.

But if their goaltending doesnt become a bit more reliable, or even just average, in the next few weeks, the team may finally want to find a way to solidify their biggest weakness.

The Oilers depth scoring Concern-o-meter: 5/10 Before getting sidelined with injury, Zach Hyman only had three goals and eight points in 20 games.

Jeff Skinner hasnt provided middle-six scoring, and Adam Henrique has chipped in even less.

Viktor Arvidsson seemed like an ideal fit for Leon Draisaitl s wing on paper but hasnt lived up to the hype.

And then there is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins , who is scoring at the lowest rate of his career with 1.27 points per 60 a 2.57 drop from last years career high.

Scoring isnt the only problem for the Oilers, but its the unexpected one.

Their five-on-five scoring rate ranks 17th in the league.

Expand the focus to all situations, and Edmonton drops to 18th.

The team needs more secondary scoring.

GO DEEPER Twenty crucial Oilers questions after an uneven 20 games Breaking through after an extended drought didnt snap Hymans scoring woes.

The shot quality is there; he is expected to have around 11 goals so far this year.

The finishing isnt, which is reminiscent of his 2022-23.

A shooting percentage regression was expected, but not this dramatically.

No one should have expected Nugent-Hopkins to shoot 18.4 percent again, either.

But what makes his start so concerning is that those downticks continue below the surface.

Two-way play tends to be a strength he makes the Oilers more dangerous offensively and is reliable in his own zone.

This year, the team is worse in his minutes on both ends of the ice relative to the rest of the team.

Both players have a track record of being reliable parts of a supporting cast and have the support of elite players around them.

So, a rebound should be expected.

Until it happens, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisatil are doing the most right now, and even Vasily Podkolzin is stepping up in a top-six role.

But their depth needs to start making more of an impact if this team wants to exceed last seasons accomplishments.

Data collected prior to Mondays matchups via Evolving-Hockey , HockeyViz , Hockey Stat Cards , All Three Zones , and Natural Stat Trick .

This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.

(Top photo of the Red Wings: Matthew Huang / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article.