Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Carolina @ California UNC @ CAL

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

2-3  |  Road

18
FINAL
Fri, Oct 17 • 10:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

4-2  |  Home

21
Key Game
Jaylen McGill
KEY GAME

Jaylen McGill

#27 | Running Back
@
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Jaylen McGill None-None
Chase Meyer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH CAROLINA
100%
📊
CALIFORNIA
0%
NORTH CAROLINA --
CALIFORNIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (California)
North CarolinaUNC (-3.5) 0 CaliforniaCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Carolina Cover

30.9%

California Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CAL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

UNC By 1-6 points

12.9%

UNC By 7-13 points

9.6%

CAL By 1-6 points

16.5%

CAL By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
NORTH CAROLINA
46
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
24
NORTH CAROLINA
28
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI California Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim California Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI California (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim California (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim o47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2025 UNC @ CAL 18 - 21
Sep 1, 2018 UNC @ CAL 17 - 24
Sep 2, 2017 CAL @ UNC 35 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +124.0% more
California: 2.2 vs North Carolina: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +25.4% more
California: 20.1 vs North Carolina: 16.0
Total Yards (L5) +22.5% more
California: 331.8 vs North Carolina: 270.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
California: 0.4 vs North Carolina: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 39.0 18
CAL Score 46.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 16.0 19.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 83.8 / 98.5 80.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 331.8 / 270.8 294.0 / 287.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.0 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
UNC
CAL
UNC
ML
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
ATS
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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