BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
8-8-0 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
7-8-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Erik Johnson
#6 | D@
GOALTENDER
Ivan Fedotov
#82 | G| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Johnson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Ivan Fedotov | None-None | 2.00 | 0.920 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.00
--
Save %
0.920
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
0%
FLYERS
100%
SABRES
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1 goal
17.8%
BUF By 2-3 goals
19.5%
PHI By 1 goal
17.1%
PHI By 2-3 goals
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3.02
BUFFALO
Philadelphia
2.94
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 14, 2026
PHI @ BUF
2 - 5
Dec 18, 2025
PHI @ BUF
3 - 5
Dec 3, 2025
BUF @ PHI
2 - 5
Apr 17, 2025
PHI @ BUF
4 - 5
Mar 29, 2025
BUF @ PHI
4 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+21.1%
Buffalo: 31.6%
vs
Philadelphia: 10.4%
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.8%
Buffalo: 48.3%
vs
Philadelphia: 46.5%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+45.9% more
Philadelphia: 20.2
vs
Buffalo: 13.8
Takeaways (L5)
+38.9% more
Philadelphia: 8.9
vs
Buffalo: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.0
2
PHI Score
2.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
20.2 / 13.8
25.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
46.5 / 48.3
50.6 / 49.4
Hits
21.9 / 23.0
14.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
10.4 / 31.6
20.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
28.3 / 26.4
32.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
8.9 / 6.4
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
BUF
PHI
BUF
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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