Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bowling Green @ Iowa State BGSU @ ISU

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

0-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:00 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

2-1  |  Home

55
Key Game
Ryan Kingston
KEY GAME

Ryan Kingston

#30 | Punter
@
Ethan Gurney
KEY GAME

Ethan Gurney

#95 | Punter
Player
Ryan Kingston None-None
Ethan Gurney None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOWLING GREEN
6%
📊
IOWA STATE
94%
BOWLING GREEN 8% Book Odds: +1200
IOWA STATE 96% Book Odds: -2381
Book Implied: 7.70% / 96%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +14.5 (Over)
Over 43.5 80%
Under 43.5 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
-23.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Iowa State)
Bowling GreenBGSU (+23.5) 0 Iowa StateISU (-23.5)
Iowa State Cyclones (-23.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bowling Green Cover

1.9%

Iowa State Cover

98.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ISU -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

BGSU By 1-6 points

1.2%

BGSU By 7-13 points

0.4%

ISU By 1-6 points

3.3%

ISU By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
14.5
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 10
43.5
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
Simulated Score
17
BOWLING GREEN
Book Implied: 10
32
IOWA STATE
Book Implied: 33.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa State Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim Iowa State Win
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa State (-23.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
B
Sim Bowling Green (+23.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Sim o43.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 BGSU @ ISU 7 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.3% more
Iowa State: 159.3 vs Bowling Green: 133.6
Total Yards (L5) +14.7% more
Iowa State: 321.3 vs Bowling Green: 280.1
Turnovers (L5) +54.5% more
Bowling Green: 1.6 vs Iowa State: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 14.5 7
ISU Score 43.5 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.3 / 15.1 25.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 159.3 / 133.6 365.0 / 90.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 321.3 / 280.1 507.0 / 186.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.6 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1300 / -2778 → +1200 / -2381 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +22.5 / -22.5 → +23.5 / -23.5 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 43.5 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -1.8
ISU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -13.3 ATS +/-: -1.8
ISU
2-3-1 (40.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: -1.0
ISU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
BGSU
ISU
BGSU
ML
100% 6-0
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
ATS
60% 3-2-1
50% 3-3
40% 2-3-1
33% 2-4
TTL
50% 3-3
100% 6-0
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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