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With the college football season entering its final stretch, updated bowl and College Football Playoff projections from ESPN, CBS Sports, and USA TODAY Sports reveal a shifting landscape for Big 12 teams after Week 9. As several programs inch closer to the six-win threshold for bowl eligibility, the postseason destinations for each team have become clearer.
Utah and BYU Headline CFP Contingent
Utah has emerged as the unanimous choice for the Big 12's top playoff seed across all outlets, while BYU is projected to join the playoff field as an at-large team. However, analysts are divided on how deep the Cougars can advance, with none predicting a lengthy run. In contrast, Utah garners more optimism, with one analyst slotting the Utes into the national championship game.
Specifically, USA TODAY Sports places Utah as the No. 6 seed facing Ole Miss, CBS Sports has them at No. 3 against Notre Dame, ESPN's Bonagura projects them as the No. 2 seed versus Indiana, and ESPN's Schlabach seeds them No. 4 against Kentucky. While CBS and USA TODAY foresee a second-round exit for Utah, ESPN's analysts are more bullish: Schlabach predicts a semifinal loss to Miami, and Bonagura forecasts a national title game appearance against Miami.
BYU's projections vary: USA TODAY Sports has them as the No. 10 seed against Alabama, CBS Sports as the No. 8 seed versus LSU, Bonagura as the No. 5 seed against Boise State, and Schlabach as the No. 7 seed facing Wake Forest. USA TODAY and CBS expect a first-round exit for BYU, but both ESPN analysts project a first-round win followed by a second-round loss. The Cougars' upcoming game against Utah will be a critical test of their championship credentials.
Texas Tech and UCF Solidify Bowl Plans
Texas Tech is consistently projected for the Alamo Bowl, with opponents varying between Oregon and USC. The Red Raiders remain in the Big 12 title hunt if they win out and BYU suffers a conference loss, but a more likely scenario is a trip to the Alamo Bowl, where they have historically struggled, losing two of three appearances and remaining winless against both Oregon and USC.
UCF, sitting at 4-4, is projected to reach a bowl game for the first time since 2023. Their final four opponents—Kansas, Arizona State, Iowa State, and Colorado—all have sub-.500 conference records. Projections for the Knights include the First Responder Bowl against Tulsa (USA TODAY), the Liberty Bowl versus Missouri (CBS), and the Armed Forces Bowl against North Texas (Bonagura) or Army (Schlabach). UCF has never played in the First Responder or Armed Forces Bowls but has a 1-1 record in the Liberty Bowl.
Baylor, Arizona State, and Houston Eye Postseason
Baylor, fresh off a dominant win over UCF, needs one more victory to secure bowl eligibility. The Bears face Iowa State this weekend before a daunting stretch against ranked opponents, making the Cyclones game crucial. Projections for Baylor include the Cactus Bowl vs. Wisconsin (USA TODAY), First Responder Bowl vs. FAU (CBS), Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri (Bonagura), and Texas Bowl vs. Florida (Schlabach).
Arizona State appears to be Poinsettia Bowl-bound according to most projections, with USA TODAY pitting them against Oregon State and CBS/Schlabach against Fresno State. At 4-4, the Sun Devils need two more wins, with their best chances coming against Colorado and UCF in the next two weeks. Failing to qualify for a bowl would mark the first time since joining the Big 12 in 2024 that Arizona State stays home.
Houston has a near-consensus projection for the Pop-Tarts Bowl, facing either Wake Forest (USA TODAY, CBS) or SMU (Bonagura, Schlabach). The matchup would be particularly intriguing if Wake Forest quarterback Gio Lopez is healthy, pitting Houston's defense against the Demon Deacons' offense.
Kansas State, Arizona, Cincinnati, and West Virginia Battle for Eligibility
Kansas State, at 4-4 with a 1-4 Big 12 record and quarterback injuries, is projected for the Independence Bowl vs. Liberty (USA TODAY), Armed Forces Bowl vs. Memphis (CBS), Independence Bowl vs. UConn (Bonagura), and Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army (Schlabach). The Wildcats' best remaining chances for wins come against TCU and Iowa State, but a loss in either could leave them bowl-ineligible for the second straight year.
Arizona, reeling from a loss to Texas Tech that dashed their Big 12 title hopes, is most commonly projected for the Sun Bowl against Duke (USA TODAY), SMU (CBS), or Virginia Tech (Bonagura), with Schlabach predicting the Las Vegas Bowl vs. Missouri. The Wildcats are 0-3 all-time in the Sun Bowl and haven't appeared there since 1992.
Cincinnati, with five wins, needs one more victory in their final four games to become bowl-eligible. Three of four outlets project the Bearcats to the Cactus Bowl against Michigan, while USA TODAY slots them in the Armed Forces Bowl vs. UTSA. Cincinnati has never played in the Cactus Bowl or faced Michigan in a bowl game.
West Virginia, one win away from eligibility after beating TCU, is projected for the Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri (USA TODAY), Independence Bowl vs. UConn (CBS), Puerto Rico Bowl vs. UMass (Bonagura), and Independence Bowl vs. Washington (Schlabach). The Mountaineers' game against Kansas is their most winnable remaining contest, making the Independence Bowl the most likely destination.
Oklahoma State and the Quarterback Dilemma
Oklahoma State, despite two conference losses, boasts one of the nation's top quarterbacks in Drew Mestemaker. The Cowboys are projected for the Texas Bowl against Texas A&M (USA TODAY), Tennessee (CBS, Bonagura) or the Liberty Bowl vs. Auburn (Schlabach). However, their defense remains a concern after a loss to Iowa State, limiting their ceiling.
Teams on the Outside Looking In
Colorado, TCU, Iowa State, and Kansas are not projected to reach a bowl game by any outlet. Colorado, at 3-5 with four games left, faces a must-win against Arizona State to keep their hopes alive. The Buffaloes' other remaining opponents—Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF—are all 2-3 in Big 12 play, offering a narrow path to eligibility.
Originally reported by yahoo.