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GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

31-4  |  Road

91
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

OREGON

DUCKSORE

12-20  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
30%
📊
DUCKS
70%
BULLDOGS --
DUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 10%
Under 0 90%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Gonzaga)
BulldogsGONZ (-3.5) 0 DucksORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

88.5%

Ducks Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GONZ -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)

GONZ By 1-7 points

20.1%

GONZ By 8-14 points

27.2%

ORE By 1-7 points

8.0%

ORE By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
77
GONZAGA
65
OREGON
Simulated Score
GONZAGA
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Win
30% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.0 Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 GONZ @ ORE 91 - 82
Nov 28, 2019 ORE @ GONZ 72 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +13.1% more
Gonzaga: 20.7 vs Oregon: 18.0
Rebounding (L5) +11.6% more
Gonzaga: 42.2 vs Oregon: 37.3
Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Gonzaga: 54.5% vs Oregon: 47.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Gonzaga: 42.6% vs Oregon: 37.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GONZ Score 77.0 91
ORE Score 65.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 42.6 34.0 / 43.0
Assists 18.0 / 20.7 20.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.9 / 3.6 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 54.5 48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 69.7 100.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 42.2 33.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.6 / 9.3 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 11.6 11.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
GONZ
ORE
GONZ
ML
56% 18-14
71% 25-10
62% 18-11
69% 20-9
ATS
56% 18-14
69% 24-11
62% 18-11
69% 20-9
TTL
59% 19-13
57% 20-15
100% 29-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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