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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

36-18  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, May 26 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

22-30  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tyron Guerrero
STARTING PITCHER

Tyron Guerrero

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Raisel Iglesias None-None 1.08 -- 1.0 1
Tyron Guerrero None-None 9.82 -- 2.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
1.08 Ldr ERA 9.82
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
62%
📊
RED SOX
38%
BRAVES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Atlanta)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

69.1%

Red Sox Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)

ATL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATL By 3-4 runs

18.4%

BOS By 1-2 runs

13.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
ATLANTA
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 28, 2026 ATL @ BOS 10 - 2
May 27, 2026 ATL @ BOS 0 - 8
May 26, 2026 ATL @ BOS 7 - 6
May 17, 2026 BOS @ ATL 1 - 8
May 16, 2026 BOS @ ATL 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Boston BOS
1
Games Played
▲ 2
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.233 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.757 ▲
OPS
.409
1
Home Runs
▲ 2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +80.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +34.8%
Atlanta: 75.7% vs Boston: 40.9%
Slugging Pct (Season) +18.3%
Atlanta: 43.3% vs Boston: 25.0%
On-Base Pct (Season) +16.5%
Atlanta: 32.4% vs Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 6.0 7
BOS Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.0 / 6.8 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.6 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 9.3 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 9.6 19.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.8 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATL
BOS
ATL
ML
50% 80-80
46% 77-90
47% 76-87
54% 90-78
ATS
58% 93-67
57% 96-71
48% 79-84
52% 87-81
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 83-73-11
47% 74-83-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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