BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
18-26 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
31-14 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 0.57 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Martin Perez | None-None | 2.25 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.57 Ldr
ERA
2.25
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
BRAVES
0%
RED SOX
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Atlanta
7
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 28, 2026
ATL @ BOS
10 - 2
May 27, 2026
ATL @ BOS
0 - 8
May 26, 2026
ATL @ BOS
7 - 6
May 17, 2026
BOS @ ATL
1 - 8
May 16, 2026
BOS @ ATL
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.409
OPS
▲
.757
2
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+400.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+177.1% more
Atlanta: 4.0
vs
Boston: 1.4
Home Runs (L5)
+59.0% more
Atlanta: 1.4
vs
Boston: 0.8
OPS (Season)
+34.8%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.0
3
ATL Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 7.2
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 10.6
5.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 12.0
9.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.0 / 1.4
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
BOS
ATL
BOS
ML
46%
77-90
50%
80-80
54%
90-78
47%
76-87
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-67
52%
87-81
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
83-73-11
46%
72-83-5
49%
76-80-11
47%
74-83-6
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