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PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

40-27-12  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Apr 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Canada Life Centre
View Odds Details →

WINNIPEG

JETSWPG

35-31-12  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Dan Vladar
GOALTENDER

Dan Vladar

#80 | Goaltender
@
Connor Hellebuyck
GOALTENDER

Connor Hellebuyck

#37 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dan Vladar None-None 1.00 0.964 --
Connor Hellebuyck None-None 7.50 0.750 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 7.50
0.964 Ldr Save % 0.750
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
JETS
0%
FLYERS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Winnipeg)
FlyersPHI (-3.5) 0 JetsWPG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

30.9%

Jets Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WPG -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)

PHI By 1 goal

12.1%

PHI By 2-3 goals

9.3%

WPG By 1 goal

19.7%

WPG By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
PHILADELPHIA
3
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
3
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Flyers (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 11, 2026 PHI @ WPG 7 - 1
Oct 16, 2025 WPG @ PHI 5 - 2
Mar 6, 2025 WPG @ PHI 4 - 1
Mar 1, 2025 PHI @ WPG 2 - 1
Feb 8, 2024 WPG @ PHI 1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5) +17.9%
Winnipeg: 65.1% vs Philadelphia: 47.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +23.3% more
Philadelphia: 21.7 vs Winnipeg: 16.6
Power Play % (L5) +19.5%
Philadelphia: 20.4% vs Winnipeg: 0.9%
Hits (L5) +13.8% more
Philadelphia: 24.6 vs Winnipeg: 21.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 2.0 7
WPG Score 3.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
63%MONEY37%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
PHI
WPG
PHI
ML
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
ATS
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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