MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
11-20 | Road
70
OREGON
DUCKSORE
12-19 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
TERRAPINS
100%
DUCKS
0%
TERRAPINS
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Oregon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORE -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)
MD By 1-7 points
20.1%
MD By 8-14 points
9.3%
ORE By 1-7 points
27.4%
ORE By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Maryland
71
MARYLAND
Oregon
75
OREGON
Simulated Score
Maryland
72
MARYLAND
Oregon
75
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Ducks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ducks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ducks (-3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Ducks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
MD @ ORE
70 - 60
Jan 2, 2026
ORE @ MD
64 - 54
Jan 5, 2025
MD @ ORE
79 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+103.6% more
Oregon: 5.7
vs
Maryland: 2.8
Assists (L5)
+67.9% more
Oregon: 16.6
vs
Maryland: 9.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.9%
Oregon: 75.8%
vs
Maryland: 65.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Oregon: 34.5%
vs
Maryland: 29.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MD Score
71.0
70
ORE Score
75.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 29.7
19.0 / 30.0
Assists
16.6 / 9.9
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.1 / 3.7
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.5 / 40.0
37.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
75.8 / 65.9
86.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
32.3 / 35.5
28.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.7 / 2.8
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 11.0
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
ORE
Advantage
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MD
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
MD
ORE
MD
ML
56%
18-14
70%
23-10
62%
18-11
67%
22-11
ATS
56%
18-14
64%
21-12
62%
18-11
67%
22-11
TTL
59%
19-13
64%
21-12
100%
29-0
100%
33-0
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