OREGON
DUCKSORE
9-17 | Road
71
USC
TROJANSUSC
18-8 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
100%
TROJANS
0%
DUCKS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
ORE By 1-7 points
23.0%
ORE By 8-14 points
12.2%
USC By 1-7 points
26.8%
USC By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Oregon
82
OREGON
USC
84
USC
Simulated Score
Oregon
70
OREGON
USC
75
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
ORE @ USC
71 - 70
Dec 2, 2025
USC @ ORE
82 - 77
Mar 1, 2025
USC @ ORE
61 - 82
Dec 4, 2024
ORE @ USC
68 - 60
Feb 1, 2024
ORE @ USC
78 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+29.3% more
USC: 4.2
vs
Oregon: 3.2
Rebounding (L5)
+15.5% more
USC: 33.5
vs
Oregon: 29.0
Turnovers (L5)
+14.1% more
USC: 13.1
vs
Oregon: 11.5
Steals (L5)
+13.5% more
USC: 7.1
vs
Oregon: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORE Score
82.0
71
USC Score
84.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 27.6
32.0 / 25.0
Assists
13.7 / 14.5
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.2
8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
42.7 / 42.5
38.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
68.5 / 83.6
75.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 29.0
35.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.3
11.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 11.5
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
USC
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
USC
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
ORE
USC
ORE
ML
52%
16-15
56%
18-14
58%
18-13
62%
18-11
ATS
68%
21-10
56%
18-14
58%
18-13
62%
18-11
TTL
68%
21-10
59%
19-13
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
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