Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Nittany Lions @ Ducks PSU @ ORE

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

11-14  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 3:00 PM ET
Matthew Knight Arena
View Odds Details →

OREGON

DUCKSORE

8-16  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
📊
DUCKS
0%
NITTANY LIONS --
DUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Oregon)
Nittany LionsPSU (-3.5) 0 DucksORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

4.5%

Ducks Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORE -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

PSU By 1-7 points

3.3%

PSU By 8-14 points

0.6%

ORE By 1-7 points

12.2%

ORE By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
PENN STATE
91
OREGON
Simulated Score
70
PENN STATE
78
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ducks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ducks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ducks (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Ducks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 PSU @ ORE 72 - 83
Jan 12, 2025 ORE @ PSU 82 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +43.6% more
Oregon: 13.2 vs Penn State: 9.2
Blocks (L5) +47.6% more
Penn State: 2.9 vs Oregon: 1.5
Steals (L5) +25.2% more
Penn State: 8.2 vs Oregon: 6.2
Turnovers (L5) +20.2% more
Penn State: 11.8 vs Oregon: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 74.0 72
ORE Score 91.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 32.0 52.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.2 / 9.2 18.0 / 8.0
Blocks 1.5 / 2.9 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 47.2 50.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 71.2 / 74.6 84.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 28.2 / 28.5 32.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.2 / 8.2 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 11.8 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
PSU
ORE
PSU
ML
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
62% 18-11
56% 18-14
ATS
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
62% 18-11
56% 18-14
TTL
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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