Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ducks @ Boilermakers ORE @ PUR

OREGON

DUCKSORE

8-14  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 1:00 PM ET
Mackey Arena
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

18-4  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
100%
📊
BOILERMAKERS
0%
DUCKS --
BOILERMAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-44.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +44.0 points (Purdue)
DucksORE (-3.5) 0 BoilermakersPUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ducks Cover

0.0%

Boilermakers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -44.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

ORE By 1-7 points

0.0%

ORE By 8-14 points

0.0%

PUR By 1-7 points

0.0%

PUR By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
45
OREGON
89
PURDUE
Simulated Score
70
OREGON
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers (-18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -44.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 ORE @ PUR 64 - 68
Jan 18, 2025 PUR @ ORE 65 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +76.2% more
Purdue: 17.3 vs Oregon: 9.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.0%
Purdue: 39.8% vs Oregon: 26.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +12.0%
Purdue: 51.1% vs Oregon: 39.2%
Blocks (L5) +41.2% more
Oregon: 3.0 vs Purdue: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORE Score 45.0 64
PUR Score 89.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 26.8 28.0 / 20.0
Assists 17.3 / 9.8 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.7 / 3.0 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 51.1 / 39.2 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 73.3 / 74.6 76.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 30.7 32.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.4 / 4.1 5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 10.1 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
PUR Advantage
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.3
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
ORE
PUR
ORE
ML
67% 26-13
56% 18-14
66% 25-13
62% 18-11
ATS
64% 25-14
56% 18-14
66% 25-13
62% 18-11
TTL
51% 20-19
59% 19-13
100% 38-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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