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MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

16-2  |  Road

68
FINAL
Tue, Jan 20 • 9:00 PM ET
Matthew Knight Arena
View Odds Details →

OREGON

DUCKSORE

8-10  |  Home

52
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
100%
📊
DUCKS
0%
SPARTANS --
DUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Oregon)
SpartansMSU (-3.5) 0 DucksORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

1.1%

Ducks Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORE -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

MSU By 1-7 points

0.8%

MSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

ORE By 1-7 points

4.8%

ORE By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
61
MICHIGAN STATE
84
OREGON
Simulated Score
70
MICHIGAN STATE
78
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ducks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ducks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ducks (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Ducks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 20, 2026 MSU @ ORE 68 - 52
Mar 14, 2025 ORE @ MSU 64 - 74
Feb 8, 2025 ORE @ MSU 74 - 86
Nov 25, 2022 ORE @ MSU 70 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +9.7% more
Oregon: 3.6 vs Michigan State: 3.3
Assists (L5) +19.3% more
Michigan State: 16.3 vs Oregon: 13.1
Rebounding (L5) +17.0% more
Michigan State: 40.1 vs Oregon: 33.3
Field Goal % (L5) +6.2%
Michigan State: 48.3% vs Oregon: 42.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 61.0 68
ORE Score 84.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 32.5 35.0 / 35.0
Assists 13.1 / 16.3 10.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.3 4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 48.3 39.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 66.7 / 72.3 45.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 33.3 / 40.1 24.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.2 / 6.1 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 11.4 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
MSU
ORE
MSU
ML
56% 18-14
71% 25-10
62% 18-11
61% 20-13
ATS
56% 18-14
71% 25-10
62% 18-11
61% 20-13
TTL
59% 19-13
49% 17-18
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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