MICHIGAN
WOLVERINESMICH
15-1 | Road
81
OREGON
DUCKSORE
8-9 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVERINES
0%
DUCKS
100%
WOLVERINES
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+17.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORE +17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)
MICH By 1-7 points
12.2%
MICH By 8-14 points
23.0%
ORE By 1-7 points
3.3%
ORE By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan
82
MICHIGAN
Oregon
65
OREGON
Simulated Score
Michigan
72
MICHIGAN
Oregon
78
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wolverines
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ducks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ducks (+19.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +17.0
D
Sim
Ducks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
MICH @ ORE
81 - 71
Feb 5, 2025
ORE @ MICH
76 - 80
Dec 2, 2023
MICH @ ORE
83 - 86
Dec 14, 2019
ORE @ MICH
71 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.0% more
Michigan: 5.5
vs
Oregon: 3.4
Assists (L5)
+16.0% more
Michigan: 16.9
vs
Oregon: 14.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.1%
Michigan: 77.7%
vs
Oregon: 65.6%
Rebounding (L5)
+11.5% more
Michigan: 39.5
vs
Oregon: 34.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MICH Score
82.0
81
ORE Score
65.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.3 / 28.9
33.0 / 39.0
Assists
14.2 / 16.9
11.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.4 / 5.5
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 48.5
42.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
65.6 / 77.7
69.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 39.5
30.0 / 36.0
Steals
4.8 / 5.4
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 9.9
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH
Advantage
37-3-0
(92.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
Advantage
19-21-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
MICH
ORE
MICH
ML
56%
18-14
78%
31-9
62%
18-11
63%
24-14
ATS
56%
18-14
78%
31-9
62%
18-11
63%
24-14
TTL
59%
19-13
57%
23-17
100%
29-0
100%
38-0
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