PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
22-14-8 | Road
2
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
24-16-4 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Dan Vladar
#80 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | None-None | 6.09 | 0.667 | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 2.00 | 0.909 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
6.09
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.667
Save %
Ldr 0.909
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
SABRES
0%
FLYERS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
PHI By 1 goal
12.1%
PHI By 2-3 goals
9.3%
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Buffalo
4
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Buffalo
5
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 14, 2026
PHI @ BUF
2 - 5
Dec 18, 2025
PHI @ BUF
3 - 5
Dec 3, 2025
BUF @ PHI
2 - 5
Apr 17, 2025
PHI @ BUF
4 - 5
Mar 29, 2025
BUF @ PHI
4 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+34.9% more
Buffalo: 4.9
vs
Philadelphia: 3.6
Blocked Shots (L5)
+13.5% more
Buffalo: 17.9
vs
Philadelphia: 15.8
Hits (L5)
+37.6% more
Philadelphia: 27.4
vs
Buffalo: 17.1
Power Play % (L5)
+4.9%
Philadelphia: 12.7%
vs
Buffalo: 7.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.0
2
BUF Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.9 / 15.8
9.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
48.5 / 51.0
47.5 / 52.5
Hits
17.1 / 27.4
27.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
7.8 / 12.7
33.3 / 20.0
Shots on Goal
26.0 / 24.5
14.0 / 22.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 3.6
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
PHI
BUF
PHI
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
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