OREGON
DUCKSORE
7-6 | Road
64
MARYLAND
TERRAPINSMD
7-6 | Home
54
AI Model Win Probability
DUCKS
100%
TERRAPINS
0%
DUCKS
--
TERRAPINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MARYLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Maryland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MD -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)
ORE By 1-7 points
10.7%
ORE By 8-14 points
3.3%
MD By 1-7 points
23.0%
MD By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Oregon
81
OREGON
Maryland
91
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
Oregon
68
OREGON
Maryland
72
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Terrapins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Terrapins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Terrapins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Terrapins (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
MD @ ORE
70 - 60
Jan 2, 2026
ORE @ MD
64 - 54
Jan 5, 2025
MD @ ORE
79 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+17.0% more
Maryland: 12.8
vs
Oregon: 10.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.1%
Maryland: 74.1%
vs
Oregon: 71.0%
Assists (L5)
+40.0% more
Oregon: 19.4
vs
Maryland: 11.7
Blocks (L5)
+28.9% more
Oregon: 5.6
vs
Maryland: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORE Score
81.0
64
MD Score
91.0
54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 37.6
20.0 / 31.0
Assists
11.7 / 19.4
7.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.0 / 5.6
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
41.2 / 47.0
28.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 71.0
79.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 39.6
37.0 / 40.0
Steals
4.7 / 6.5
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 10.9
10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORE
Advantage
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
MD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
MD
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -6.9
ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
MD
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
ORE
MD
ORE
ML
70%
23-10
56%
18-14
67%
22-11
62%
18-11
ATS
64%
21-12
56%
18-14
67%
22-11
62%
18-11
TTL
64%
21-12
59%
19-13
100%
33-0
100%
29-0
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