Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Ducks OMA @ ORE

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

7-7  |  Road

57
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Matthew Knight Arena
View Odds Details →

OREGON

DUCKSORE

6-6  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
DUCKS
0%
MAVERICKS --
DUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
107.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Oregon)
MavericksOMA (-3.5) 0 DucksORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

13.6%

Ducks Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORE -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

OMA By 1-7 points

9.3%

OMA By 8-14 points

2.7%

ORE By 1-7 points

21.6%

ORE By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
48
OMAHA
59
OREGON
Simulated Score
65
OMAHA
82
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ducks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ducks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ducks (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Ducks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 107.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 28, 2025 OMA @ ORE 57 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +85.4% more
Oregon: 4.0 vs Omaha: 2.1
Assists (L5) +13.2% more
Oregon: 18.7 vs Omaha: 16.5
Free Throw % (L5) +8.1%
Oregon: 83.5% vs Omaha: 75.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Omaha: 49.6% vs Oregon: 47.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OMA Score 48.0 57
ORE Score 59.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 35.8 40.0 / 31.0
Assists 18.7 / 16.5 21.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.1 9.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.5 / 49.6 46.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 83.5 / 75.4 46.0 / 47.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 38.4 47.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.7 / 6.9 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 11.9 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OMA Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OMA Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
ORE
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.1 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
OMA
ORE
OMA
ML
56% 18-14
79% 26-7
62% 18-11
67% 22-11
ATS
56% 18-14
76% 25-8
62% 18-11
67% 22-11
TTL
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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