PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
17-9-6 | Road
3
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
14-14-4 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Cam York
#8 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Alex Lyon
#34 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam York | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Alex Lyon | None-None | 3.01 | 0.889 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.01
--
Save %
0.889
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
SABRES
0%
FLYERS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
PHI By 1 goal
12.1%
PHI By 2-3 goals
9.3%
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Sabres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 14, 2026
PHI @ BUF
2 - 5
Dec 18, 2025
PHI @ BUF
3 - 5
Dec 3, 2025
BUF @ PHI
2 - 5
Apr 17, 2025
PHI @ BUF
4 - 5
Mar 29, 2025
BUF @ PHI
4 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+22.9%
Buffalo: 24.8%
vs
Philadelphia: 1.9%
Takeaways (L5)
+22.4% more
Buffalo: 5.8
vs
Philadelphia: 4.7
Hits (L5)
+31.6% more
Philadelphia: 23.3
vs
Buffalo: 15.9
Faceoff % (L5)
+12.6%
Philadelphia: 56.8%
vs
Buffalo: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
2.0
3
BUF Score
3.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.0 / 15.7
15.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
44.2 / 56.8
46.4 / 53.6
Hits
15.9 / 23.3
24.0 / 29.0
Power Play %
24.8 / 1.9
20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
24.4 / 23.0
28.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
5.8 / 4.7
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
PHI
BUF
PHI
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
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